---
title: "Azure Splash case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Azure Splash ($20.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.74% from 33 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635217
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Azure Splash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635217)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Azure Splash

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635217?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635217?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635217) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635217?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 88.74% · EV $17.75 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635217?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635217?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635217) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635217?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $637 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 1,235 | $545 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 1,163 | $515 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-well-worn) | 1 in 1,031 | $459 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 588 | $261 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife) | 1 in 568 | $252 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 556 | $247 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Sea Calico (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-sea-calico-battle-scarred) | 1 in 535 | $238 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 358 | $224 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 495 | $220 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 288 | $165 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-field-tested) | 1 in 287 | $164 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 275 | $158 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 215 | $134 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-well-worn) | 1 in 235 | $134 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-field-tested) | 1 in 234 | $134 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 213 | $133 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 231 | $132 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 188 | $107 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 109 | $68.19 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 109 | $67.93 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 107 | $66.87 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $56.39 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $49.04 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $45.45 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $28.95 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $28.67 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) | 1 in 30 | $22.60 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $22.10 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $21.32 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-field-tested) | 19.8% | $0.46 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-minimal-wear) | 26.0% | $0.37 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-circaetus-battle-scarred) | 26.6% | $0.23 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635217`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635217)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $20.00 | 88.74% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 1.6% covert 3.9% mil spec 27.8% #8847ff 0.2% extraordinary 0.3% red 0.9% #eb4b4b 0.4% industrial 3.1% classified 3.7% #d32ee6 1.3% rare 3.3% pink 3.4% #4b69ff 50.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.74 on average: an expected loss of $11.26 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt