---
title: "Golden Seed case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Golden Seed ($35.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.11% from 36 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635219
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Golden Seed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635219)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Golden Seed

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635219?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635219?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635219) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635219?window=all)

Price · $35.00

Advertised RTP · 89.11% · EV $31.19 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635219?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635219?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635219) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635219?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,762 | $1,561 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $956 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $825 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,852 | $618 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 1,587 | $529 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,538 | $516 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 1,299 | $434 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 1,176 | $390 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 1,075 | $358 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-field-tested) | 1 in 962 | $320 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 926 | $309 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 917 | $306 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 176 | $250 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 112 | $159 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 93 | $132 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $114 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $113 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 71 | $101 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $85.74 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $85.06 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $52.87 | 10.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $48.91 | 10.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $44.86 | 10.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $37.59 | 10.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Desert Blossom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-desert-blossom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $26.19 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $23.75 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $21.96 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $20.11 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [The Elite Mr. Muhlik \| Elite Crew agent · master](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-elite-mr-muhlik-elite-crew) | 1 in 48 | $17.02 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $15.27 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $13.71 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $2.87 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-battle-scarred) | 12.8% | $1.08 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Ripple (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-ripple-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-minimal-wear) | 16.9% | $0.39 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635219`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635219)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $35.00 | 89.11% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 12.3% sunny 0.1% restricted 10.5% #eb4b4b 0.1% Mythical 0.1% classified 20.9% extraordinary 8.3% red 7.2% #4b69ff 21.4% master 2.1% Rare 16.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.11 on average: an expected loss of $10.89 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt