---
title: "Sugar Rush case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sugar Rush ($9.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.77% from 42 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635223
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Sugar Rush](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635223)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Sugar Rush

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635223?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635223?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635223) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635223?window=all)

Price · $9.00

Advertised RTP · 88.77% · EV $7.99 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635223?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635223?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635223) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635223?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 4,545 | $627 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 2,439 | $334 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,174 | $297 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,562 | $213 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,538 | $210 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 1,099 | $149 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,099 | $149 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 952 | $130 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-field-tested) | 1 in 870 | $118 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 699 | $94.91 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 690 | $93.87 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $70.44 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 248 | $69.99 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 1 in 235 | $66.19 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 223 | $62.73 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-well-worn) | 1 in 211 | $59.56 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 204 | $57.36 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 169 | $47.58 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $47.01 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 144 | $40.64 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 140 | $39.38 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-well-worn) | 1 in 138 | $38.90 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $24.02 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $21.65 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $17.58 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $16.32 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $13.02 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) | 1 in 341 | $7.25 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 283 | $6.02 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Popdog (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-popdog-factory-new) | 1 in 197 | $4.18 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ice-cap-factory-new) | 1 in 118 | $3.29 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-well-worn) | 1 in 107 | $3.22 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $2.61 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $1.30 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $1.30 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $0.52 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.47 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blue-ply-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $0.39 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Ricochet (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.30 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-well-worn) | 10.5% | $0.28 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-well-worn) | 15.6% | $0.13 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Drop Me (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-drop-me-battle-scarred) | 24.3% | $0.09 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635223`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635223)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $9.00 | 88.77% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.3% restricted 2.7% classified 17.6% pink 1.2% extraordinary 0.5% Legendary 2.9% Rare 0.5% mil spec 11.3% blue 6.2% violet 1.9% #8847ff 1.9% #4b69ff 35.1% #87c7ff 15.6%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.77 on average: an expected loss of $11.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt