---
title: "Monza Circuit case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Monza Circuit ($2.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.79% from 47 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635241
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Monza Circuit](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635241)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Monza Circuit

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635241?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635241?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635241) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635241?window=all)

Price · $2.00

Advertised RTP · 88.79% · EV $1.78 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635241?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635241?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635241) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635241?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $211 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $161 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $142 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14,286 | $139 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $83.81 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 8,333 | $81.13 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,143 | $66.71 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 6,250 | $58.07 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $56.63 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-factory-new) | 1 in 4,762 | $46.11 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,762 | $44.57 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 4,545 | $43.09 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) | 1 in 4,348 | $41.45 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $40.89 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 3,571 | $33.74 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-field-tested) | 1 in 3,448 | $32.50 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,226 | $30.93 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,632 | $25.01 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,326 | $22.40 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 2,326 | $22.14 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,222 | $21.17 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 331 | $19.86 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Iron Clad (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-factory-new) | 1 in 313 | $18.75 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 311 | $18.61 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 282 | $16.89 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 161 | $9.63 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) | 1 in 146 | $8.78 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $8.09 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $7.05 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $6.66 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 101 | $6.08 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $4.85 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $3.86 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $3.23 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $2.92 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $2.84 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $1.56 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $1.46 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $1.36 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $1.24 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Turf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $0.45 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.33 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.33 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.29 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.29 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.27 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 30.1% | $0.17 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635241`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635241)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.00 | 88.79% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed mil spec 19.3% industrial 0.3% classified 2.3% #ffd700 0.0% covert 0.1% Ancient 0.0% #4b69ff 21.6% pink 0.8% Legendary 2.9% #d32ee6 0.0% Mythical 0.0% Rare 0.7% milspec 33.8% Mil Spec Grade 5.3% Mil Spec 0.7% Uncommon 0.9% restricted 3.8% violet 4.1% blue 3.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.79 on average: an expected loss of $11.21 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt