---
title: "Sunny Trail case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Sunny Trail ($9.60) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.19% from 34 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635247
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Sunny Trail](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635247)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Sunny Trail

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635247?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635247?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635247) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635247?window=all)

Price · $9.60

Advertised RTP · 89.19% · EV $8.56 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635247?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635247?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635247) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635247?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $417 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 4,762 | $403 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $357 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $355 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,226 | $292 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife) | 1 in 2,703 | $236 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $235 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,562 | $151 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-field-tested) | 1 in 1,515 | $140 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,370 | $137 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,031 | $130 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 952 | $103 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 187 | $80.27 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-factory-new) | 1 in 81 | $75.88 | 10.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 909 | $74.01 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 174 | $73.41 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $53.39 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 127 | $47.02 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 122 | $46.78 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 175 | $44.13 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $42.78 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $25.99 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $20.66 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $19.72 | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $17.37 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $16.01 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-xiangliu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $14.96 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $12.38 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Winterized (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-winterized-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $4.06 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $0.66 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-survivalist-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.29 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $0.26 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Destroyer (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-destroyer-minimal-wear) | 35.0% | $0.19 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 14.3% | $0.14 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635247`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635247)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $9.60 | 89.19% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.9% sunny 0.0% covert knife 0.0% classified 9.5% extraordinary 0.6% mil spec 32.6% blue 36.2% #d32ee6 3.0% Legendary 2.8% #d32ce6 2.9% pink 4.1% milspec 3.6% #8847ff 2.6%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.19 on average: an expected loss of $10.81 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt