---
title: "Meadow Match case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Meadow Match ($21.20) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.16% from 32 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635249
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Meadow Match](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635249)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Meadow Match

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635249?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635249?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635249) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635249?window=all)

Price · $21.20

Advertised RTP · 89.16% · EV $18.90 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 5.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635249?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635249?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635249) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635249?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,778 | $957 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 2,381 | $877 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,439 | $619 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Minimal Wear) gloves · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 870 | $395 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,370 | $366 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-factory-new) | 1 in 260 | $264 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 571 | $221 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 285 | $204 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 521 | $199 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 518 | $143 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 166 | $141 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 188 | $133 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 389 | $117 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $112 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 376 | $111 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $92.98 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-legion-of-anubis-factory-new) | 1 in 107 | $91.72 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 154 | $80.37 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 131 | $74.06 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $42.93 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $42.20 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $35.59 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $27.53 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $23.69 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $22.47 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $1.26 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.71 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 11.7% | $0.39 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-well-worn) | 12.0% | $0.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-battle-scarred) | 12.3% | $0.25 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-desert-strike-well-worn) | 17.6% | $0.18 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635249`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635249)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $21.20 | 89.16% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.0% gold 0.0% covert 6.7% Extraordinary 0.1% epic 0.1% Legendary 0.2% restricted 7.5% Ancient 0.9% covert knife 0.7% extraordinary 1.2% classified 9.6% pink 5.3% #d32ee6 4.9% mil spec 27.5% Mythical 5.7% #4b69ff 29.6%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.16 on average: an expected loss of $10.84 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt