---
title: "Abandoned Ivy case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Abandoned Ivy ($40.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.85% from 37 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635253
rendered: 2026-11-11T22:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Abandoned Ivy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635253)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Abandoned Ivy

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635253?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635253?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635253) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635253?window=all)

Price · $40.00

Advertised RTP · 88.85% · EV $35.54 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 6.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635253?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635253?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635253) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635253?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $3,532 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $3,291 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,348 | $2,393 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 1,389 | $773 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,282 | $711 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,020 | $565 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 971 | $542 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 877 | $488 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 752 | $417 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 177 | $310 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-factory-new) | 1 in 173 | $302 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 159 | $279 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Minimal Wear) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 151 | $264 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-by-kitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 97 | $169 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 96 | $168 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-factory-new) | 1 in 86 | $150 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $127 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $124 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $111 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 44 | $111 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $111 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $85.34 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $65.99 | 7.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 352 | $47.02 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-well-worn) | 1 in 331 | $44.20 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 329 | $43.83 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 322 | $42.93 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 126 | $16.80 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) | 1 in 99 | $13.17 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $6.19 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $5.24 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $3.62 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $1.72 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.71 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Grim (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-well-worn) | 14.4% | $0.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-flame-test-field-tested) | 19.2% | $0.24 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-freight-minimal-wear) | 22.6% | $0.21 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635253`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635253)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $40.00 | 88.85% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 18.3% restricted 2.3% classified 5.0% extraordinary 2.7% epic 0.7% red 2.0% pink 3.7% mil spec 2.7% Mythical 6.5% #4b69ff 56.2%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.85 on average: an expected loss of $11.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt