---
title: "Tactical Choice case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Tactical Choice ($0.25) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.93% from 111 items with odds, observed 88.97% over 475K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635254
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Tactical Choice](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635254)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Tactical Choice

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635254?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635254?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635254) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635254?window=all)

Price · $0.25

Advertised RTP · 88.93% · EV $0.22 from 111 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.97% · 475K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.68% ±1.32 56.2K openings

7 days · 88.80% ±0.50 375K openings

30 days · 88.97% ±0.45 475K openings

since tracking started · 88.97% ±0.45 475K openings

86.5% 88.5% 90.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635254?window=24h) | 56.2K | 88.68% ±1.32 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635254?window=7d) | 375K | 88.80% ±0.50 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635254) | 475K | 88.97% ±0.45 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635254?window=all) | 475K | 88.97% ±0.45 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 111 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 477K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $12.52 | 0.3% | 17 | 23.8 | 0.71× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $12.40 | 0.3% | 12 | 23.8 | 0.50× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-llama-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20,000 | $11.48 | 0.3% | 16 | 23.8 | 0.67× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $8.53 | 0.3% | 24 | 33.4 | 0.72× |
| [Nova \| Rising Skull (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-skull-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $6.38 | 0.3% | 27 | 47.7 | 0.57× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-enforcer-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $5.60 | 0.3% | 48 | 52.4 | 0.92× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $5.37 | 0.3% | 37 | 57.2 | 0.65× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-field-tested) | 1 in 8,333 | $5.03 | 0.3% | 39 | 57.2 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 2,564 | $4.02 | 0.7% | 191 | 185.9 | 1.03× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $3.96 | 0.7% | 67 | 190.7 | 0.35× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brass (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-field-tested) | 1 in 2,500 | $3.93 | 0.7% | 157 | 190.7 | 0.82× |
| [G3SG1 \| Digital Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-digital-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $3.86 | 0.7% | 154 | 195.5 | 0.79× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,326 | $3.67 | 0.7% | 155 | 205.0 | 0.76× |
| [XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,273 | $3.60 | 0.7% | 180 | 209.8 | 0.86× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,273 | $3.59 | 0.7% | 201 | 209.8 | 0.96× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-factory-new) | 1 in 1,852 | $2.93 | 0.7% | 203 | 257.5 | 0.79× |
| [MAG-7 \| Firestarter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-firestarter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,724 | $2.71 | 0.7% | 195 | 276.5 | 0.71× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,613 | $2.55 | 0.7% | 252 | 295.6 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,408 | $2.20 | 0.7% | 259 | 338.5 | 0.77× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,370 | $2.16 | 0.7% | 311 | 348.0 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-torque-well-worn) | 1 in 1,333 | $2.09 | 0.7% | 278 | 357.6 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Vandal (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-vandal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,316 | $2.08 | 0.7% | 355 | 362.4 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-well-worn) | 1 in 1,316 | $2.06 | 0.7% | 294 | 362.4 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) | 1 in 1,266 | $1.99 | 0.7% | 358 | 376.7 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) | 1 in 1,266 | $1.99 | 0.7% | 271 | 376.7 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Stinger (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-stinger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,205 | $1.90 | 0.7% | 294 | 395.7 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 1,190 | $1.87 | 0.7% | 381 | 400.5 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| High Seas (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-high-seas-well-worn) | 1 in 1,136 | $1.79 | 0.7% | 340 | 419.6 | 0.81× |
| [MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,099 | $1.72 | 0.7% | 396 | 433.9 | 0.91× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,053 | $1.66 | 0.7% | 434 | 452.9 | 0.96× |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 980 | $1.54 | 0.7% | 480 | 486.3 | 0.99× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 901 | $1.42 | 0.7% | 474 | 529.2 | 0.90× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 820 | $1.29 | 0.7% | 457 | 581.7 | 0.79× |
| [Souvenir PP-Bizon \| Breaker Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-pp-bizon-breaker-box-field-tested) | 1 in 820 | $1.29 | 0.7% | 443 | 581.7 | 0.76× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) | 1 in 763 | $1.20 | 0.7% | 504 | 624.6 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Condition Zero (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-condition-zero-field-tested) | 1 in 680 | $1.07 | 0.7% | 1,039 | 700.9 | 1.48× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 353 | $0.95 | 1.2% | 1,591 | 1349.3 | 1.18× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 342 | $0.91 | 1.2% | 822 | 1392.2 | 0.59× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-clear-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 339 | $0.90 | 1.2% | 1,285 | 1406.5 | 0.91× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 339 | $0.90 | 1.2% | 883 | 1406.5 | 0.63× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 313 | $0.83 | 1.2% | 1,354 | 1525.7 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 1 in 305 | $0.81 | 1.2% | 1,316 | 1563.8 | 0.84× |
| [FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meow-36-factory-new) | 1 in 290 | $0.77 | 1.2% | 887 | 1644.9 | 0.54× |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) | 1 in 287 | $0.76 | 1.2% | 1,336 | 1664.0 | 0.80× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-well-worn) | 1 in 282 | $0.75 | 1.2% | 1,707 | 1687.8 | 1.01× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Assault (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-assault-well-worn) | 1 in 264 | $0.70 | 1.2% | 2,198 | 1807.0 | 1.22× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-factory-new) | 1 in 264 | $0.70 | 1.2% | 1,371 | 1807.0 | 0.76× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Vandal (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-vandal-well-worn) | 1 in 260 | $0.69 | 1.2% | 1,649 | 1835.6 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Off World (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-off-world-minimal-wear) | 1 in 256 | $0.68 | 1.2% | 1,466 | 1859.4 | 0.79× |
| [SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-mainframe-001-factory-new) | 1 in 245 | $0.65 | 1.2% | 1,522 | 1945.3 | 0.78× |
| [P2000 \| Sure Grip (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-factory-new) | 1 in 218 | $0.58 | 1.2% | 1,477 | 2183.6 | 0.68× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Condition Zero (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-condition-zero-battle-scarred) | 1 in 215 | $0.57 | 1.2% | 2,127 | 2221.8 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-field-tested) | 1 in 203 | $0.54 | 1.2% | 2,043 | 2345.7 | 0.87× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-field-tested) | 1 in 203 | $0.54 | 1.2% | 1,981 | 2345.7 | 0.84× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $0.53 | 1.2% | 1,962 | 2388.7 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Mischief (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-mischief-well-worn) | 1 in 177 | $0.47 | 1.2% | 2,199 | 2693.8 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-g3sg1-orange-crash-battle-scarred) | 1 in 177 | $0.47 | 1.2% | 1,210 | 2693.8 | 0.45× |
| [P250 \| Ripple (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-ripple-field-tested) | 1 in 169 | $0.45 | 1.2% | 2,452 | 2813.0 | 0.87× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 166 | $0.44 | 1.2% | 2,443 | 2875.0 | 0.85× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Tango (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-tango-field-tested) | 1 in 162 | $0.43 | 1.2% | 2,472 | 2941.7 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Dazzle (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-dazzle-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $0.41 | 1.2% | 2,736 | 3089.5 | 0.89× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) | 1 in 151 | $0.40 | 1.2% | 2,696 | 3165.8 | 0.85× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-battle-scarred) | 1 in 147 | $0.39 | 1.2% | 3,751 | 3246.9 | 1.16× |
| [M249 \| Hypnosis (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-hypnosis-well-worn) | 1 in 132 | $0.35 | 1.2% | 2,794 | 3618.7 | 0.77× |
| [P2000 \| Oceanic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 128 | $0.34 | 1.2% | 2,686 | 3723.6 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Danger Close (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-danger-close-well-worn) | 1 in 128 | $0.34 | 1.2% | 3,500 | 3723.6 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mud-Spec (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mud-spec-field-tested) | 1 in 124 | $0.33 | 1.2% | 2,962 | 3838.1 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 124 | $0.33 | 1.2% | 2,243 | 3838.1 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Foresight (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-foresight-factory-new) | 1 in 124 | $0.33 | 1.2% | 3,576 | 3838.1 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Modest Threat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-modest-threat-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $0.32 | 1.2% | 2,897 | 3957.3 | 0.73× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 137 | $0.28 | 0.9% | 2,145 | 3475.7 | 0.62× |
| [FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-halftone-wash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 138 | $0.28 | 0.9% | 2,899 | 3447.1 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) | 1 in 129 | $0.26 | 0.9% | 3,685 | 3709.3 | 0.99× |
| [P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 109 | $0.22 | 0.9% | 4,926 | 4386.4 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Atlas (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-atlas-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $0.22 | 0.9% | 4,671 | 4386.4 | 1.06× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $0.21 | 0.9% | 5,985 | 4596.1 | 1.30× |
| [SSG 08 \| Halftone Whorl (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-halftone-whorl-battle-scarred) | 1 in 99 | $0.20 | 0.9% | 3,003 | 4825.0 | 0.62× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 94 | $0.19 | 0.9% | 5,901 | 5077.7 | 1.16× |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 94 | $0.19 | 0.9% | 5,321 | 5077.7 | 1.05× |
| [Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Nitro (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-r8-revolver-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $0.19 | 0.9% | 3,942 | 5077.7 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Modest Threat (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-modest-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $0.19 | 0.9% | 3,103 | 5077.7 | 0.61× |
| [XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-battle-scarred) | 1 in 89 | $0.18 | 0.9% | 6,123 | 5359.0 | 1.14× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-well-worn) | 1 in 89 | $0.18 | 0.9% | 6,159 | 5359.0 | 1.15× |
| [MP5-SD \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $0.18 | 0.9% | 5,990 | 5359.0 | 1.12× |
| [P2000 \| Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-lifted-spirits-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $0.17 | 0.9% | 6,019 | 5678.4 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-olive-polycam-well-worn) | 1 in 74 | $0.15 | 0.9% | 7,162 | 6431.7 | 1.11× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $0.14 | 0.9% | 13,076 | 6894.2 | 1.90× |
| [SSG 08 \| Memorial (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $0.14 | 0.9% | 7,211 | 6894.2 | 1.05× |
| [M249 \| Spectrogram (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectrogram-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $0.14 | 0.9% | 6,216 | 6894.2 | 0.90× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $0.13 | 0.9% | 6,396 | 7423.4 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Sure Grip (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-sure-grip-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $0.11 | 0.9% | 8,885 | 8772.7 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Irezumi (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-irezumi-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $0.10 | 0.9% | 15,345 | 9650.0 | 1.59× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-mockingbird-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $0.10 | 0.9% | 11,764 | 9650.0 | 1.22× |
| [P2000 \| Sure Grip (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $0.10 | 0.9% | 9,167 | 9650.0 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Motorized (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-motorized-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $0.10 | 0.9% | 8,046 | 9650.0 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Light Box (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-light-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $0.10 | 0.9% | 5,624 | 9650.0 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Mockingbird (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-mockingbird-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $0.10 | 0.9% | 4,336 | 9650.0 | 0.45× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Dark Sigil (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-dark-sigil-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.09 | 0.9% | 14,257 | 10722.7 | 1.33× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $0.09 | 0.9% | 14,148 | 10722.7 | 1.32× |
| [Tec-9 \| Slag (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $0.09 | 0.9% | 5,817 | 10722.7 | 0.54× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Irezumi (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-irezumi-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $0.09 | 0.9% | 4,869 | 10722.7 | 0.45× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.08 | 0.9% | 18,358 | 12062.5 | 1.52× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.08 | 0.9% | 9,355 | 12062.5 | 0.78× |
| [M4A4 \| Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.07 | 0.9% | 13,969 | 13783.7 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Basket Halftone (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-basket-halftone-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $0.06 | 0.9% | 34,613 | 16081.7 | 2.15× |
| [Negev \| Bulkhead (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bulkhead-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.06 | 0.9% | 22,684 | 16081.7 | 1.41× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $0.06 | 0.9% | 19,690 | 16081.7 | 1.22× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Battle-Scarred) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $0.06 | 0.9% | 11,280 | 16081.7 | 0.70× |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $0.06 | 0.9% | 7,108 | 16081.7 | 0.44× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.04 | 0.9% | 37,560 | 24182.2 | 1.55× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.04 | 0.9% | 11,033 | 24182.2 | 0.46× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635254`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) Hidden $0.25 $13.94 55.76x 2026-11-09 11:06 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) Hidden $0.25 $13.94 55.76x 2026-11-08 08:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) Hidden $0.25 $13.94 55.76x 2026-11-07 11:27 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) [maly przyjazny chlopiec antoni](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/maly%20przyjazny%20chlopiec%20antoni) $0.25 $13.94 55.76x 2026-11-07 00:28 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) [TaiTeZqCASE.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/TaiTeZqCASE.GIFT) $0.25 $13.94 55.76x 2026-11-06 14:03 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) Hidden $0.25 $13.94 55.76x 2026-11-05 23:45 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) [До біса українськ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%D0%94%D0%BE%20%D0%B1%D1%96%D1%81%D0%B0%20%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA) $0.25 $13.94 55.76x 2026-11-05 12:31 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) [THE PUSSY DESTROYER](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/THE%20PUSSY%20DESTROYER) $0.25 $13.94 55.76x 2026-11-03 20:43 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) [JaXyZoo skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/JaXyZoo%20skins.army) $0.25 $13.94 55.76x 2026-11-02 22:18 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) [Xowiczka](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Xowiczka) $0.25 $12.52 50.08x 2026-11-11 14:53 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635254)

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-mockingbird-battle-scarred) [︻芫 一 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%EF%B8%BB%E8%8A%AB%20%20%E4%B8%80%20skins.army) $0.25 $0.10 0.40x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[SSG 08 | Halftone Whorl (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-halftone-whorl-battle-scarred) [Czopek.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Czopek.skins.army) $0.25 $0.20 0.80x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-mainframe-field-tested) Hidden $0.25 $0.07 0.28x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-sure-grip-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.25 $0.11 0.44x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-well-worn) Hidden $0.25 $0.13 0.52x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-sure-grip-battle-scarred) [POP skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/POP%20skins.army) $0.25 $0.11 0.44x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[Negev | Sour Grapes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.25 $0.04 0.16x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-mockingbird-battle-scarred) Hidden $0.25 $0.10 0.40x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[Tec-9 | Slag (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-well-worn) Hidden $0.25 $0.09 0.36x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

[MP7 | Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) [POP skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/POP%20skins.army) $0.25 $0.08 0.32x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $0.25 | 88.93% | 111 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $0.25 | 88.89% | 111 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 1.0% classified 0.0% Legendary 0.0% #d32ce6 0.0% industrial 0.0% mil spec 2.0% Rare 0.5% pink 0.0% Mythical 0.8% milspec 4.3% #4b69ff 40.6% #8847ff 1.6% violet 2.0% #5e98d9 27.5% blue 2.9% light blue 0.8% #87c7ff 9.6% Uncommon 2.9% common 3.4% best hit $13.94 (55.76x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.93 on average: an expected loss of $11.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt