---
title: "Korcze case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Korcze ($2.20) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.86% from 35 items with odds, observed 86.48% over 23.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635259
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Korcze](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635259)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Korcze

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635259?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635259?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635259) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635259?window=all)

Price · $2.20

Advertised RTP · 88.86% · EV $1.95 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.48% · 23.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 7.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 77.88% ±9.49 3,157 openings

7 days · 87.55% ±3.80 19.7K openings

30 days · 86.48% ±3.47 23.6K openings

since tracking started · 86.48% ±3.47 23.6K openings

67.5% 79.8% 92.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635259?window=24h) | 3,157 | 77.88% ±9.49 | −2.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635259?window=7d) | 19.7K | 87.55% ±3.80 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635259) | 23.6K | 86.48% ±3.47 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635259?window=all) | 23.6K | 86.48% ±3.47 | −1.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $207 | 1.8% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 4,545 | $160 | 1.8% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.34× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 2,703 | $94.17 | 1.8% | 9 | 8.8 | 1.03× |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-well-worn) | 1 in 1,818 | $62.82 | 1.8% | 14 | 13.0 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 1,786 | $62.34 | 1.8% | 6 | 13.3 | 0.45× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,754 | $60.78 | 1.8% | 7 | 13.5 | 0.52× |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 1,493 | $51.96 | 1.8% | 11 | 15.9 | 0.69× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-well-worn) | 1 in 1,282 | $44.51 | 1.8% | 22 | 18.5 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 1,250 | $43.24 | 1.8% | 18 | 18.9 | 0.95× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $38.59 | 1.8% | 19 | 21.3 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-field-tested) | 1 in 901 | $31.25 | 1.8% | 22 | 26.3 | 0.84× |
| [MAG-7 \| Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 893 | $31.07 | 1.8% | 19 | 26.5 | 0.72× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 826 | $28.66 | 1.8% | 39 | 28.7 | 1.36× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 323 | $17.89 | 2.8% | 62 | 73.4 | 0.84× |
| [AUG \| Navy Murano (Factory New) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-factory-new) | 1 in 238 | $13.20 | 2.8% | 76 | 99.5 | 0.76× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 171 | $9.49 | 2.8% | 119 | 138.3 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $7.34 | 2.8% | 166 | 179.1 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-factory-new) | 1 in 128 | $7.11 | 2.8% | 203 | 184.8 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $6.42 | 2.8% | 205 | 204.6 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Kami (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-kami-factory-new) | 1 in 115 | $6.35 | 2.8% | 210 | 206.8 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) | 1 in 98 | $5.44 | 2.8% | 244 | 241.4 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $4.99 | 2.8% | 271 | 263.2 | 1.03× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gauss (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gauss-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $4.83 | 2.8% | 270 | 271.9 | 0.99× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) | 1 in 81 | $4.51 | 2.8% | 316 | 291.3 | 1.08× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Indigo (Well-Worn) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-indigo-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $4.32 | 4.4% | 466 | 468.7 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $3.82 | 4.4% | 518 | 530.1 | 0.98× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $3.70 | 4.4% | 554 | 547.4 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $3.67 | 4.4% | 548 | 551.9 | 0.99× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Kami (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-kami-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $3.21 | 4.4% | 642 | 631.0 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $3.09 | 4.4% | 674 | 655.4 | 1.03× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Tread (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-tread-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $2.98 | 4.4% | 710 | 679.6 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $2.59 | 4.4% | 802 | 781.9 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $2.45 | 4.4% | 824 | 826.6 | 1.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Keeping Tabs (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-keeping-tabs-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $2.43 | 4.4% | 857 | 833.3 | 1.03× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) | 62.5% | $0.06 | 1.9% | 14,753 | 14812.0 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635259`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.20 $207 94.14x 2026-11-06 20:04 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [lemon skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/lemon%20skins.army) $2.20 $207 94.14x 2026-11-05 19:44 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.20 $207 94.14x 2026-11-04 21:49 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) [Mustafa](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mustafa) $2.20 $160 72.62x 2026-11-10 02:32 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.20 $160 72.62x 2026-11-07 15:15 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.20 $160 72.62x 2026-11-07 13:58 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) [ace skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ace%20skins.army) $2.20 $160 72.62x 2026-11-06 18:01 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.20 $160 72.62x 2026-11-06 15:17 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $2.20 $160 72.62x 2026-11-06 14:50 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) [BIG mlody\_jr skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/BIG%20mlody_jr%20skins.army) $2.20 $160 72.62x 2026-11-04 21:36 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635259)

[Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) Hidden $2.20 $0.06 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[MAC-10 | Derailment (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.20 $5.44 2.47x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[M4A1-S | Briefing (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-well-worn) [Kub0vskyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kub0vskyy) $2.20 $4.99 2.27x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[FAMAS | Sergeant (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-well-worn) Hidden $2.20 $2.45 1.11x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) Hidden $2.20 $0.06 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) [Kiler F](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kiler%20F) $2.20 $2.59 1.18x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[FAMAS | Sergeant (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-well-worn) [Ufdtgy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Ufdtgy) $2.20 $2.45 1.11x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) [kaml66skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kaml66skins.army) $2.20 $2.59 1.18x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Coolant (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-field-tested) Hidden $2.20 $0.06 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) Hidden $2.20 $2.59 1.18x 2026-11-11 19:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.20 | 88.86% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% restricted 6.2% classified 0.1% gold 0.1% mil spec 1.0% red 0.1% blue 5.8% #777777 64.9% Rare 3.4% uncommon 0.8% pink 3.2% #4b69ff 7.3% Mythical 4.3% Mil Spec Grade 2.8% best hit $207 (94.14x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.86 on average: an expected loss of $11.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt