---
title: "Sims Cat case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Sims Cat ($1.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.96% from 41 items with odds, observed 88.89% over 31.6K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635262
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Sims Cat](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635262)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Sims Cat

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635262?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635262?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635262) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635262?window=all)

Price · $1.50

Advertised RTP · 88.96% · EV $1.33 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.89% · 31.6K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.54% ±9.29 3,925 openings

7 days · 89.94% ±3.68 25.3K openings

30 days · 88.89% ±3.31 31.6K openings

since tracking started · 88.89% ±3.31 31.6K openings

73.5% 84.0% 94.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635262?window=24h) | 3,925 | 83.54% ±9.29 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635262?window=7d) | 25.3K | 89.94% ±3.68 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635262) | 31.6K | 88.89% ±3.31 | −0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635262?window=all) | 31.6K | 88.89% ±3.31 | −0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $145 | 3.2% | 10 | 9.5 | 1.05× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-well-worn) | 1 in 1,639 | $70.58 | 3.2% | 19 | 19.4 | 0.98× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-field-tested) | 1 in 1,220 | $52.37 | 3.2% | 26 | 26.1 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-bad-trip-field-tested) | 1 in 1,136 | $48.27 | 3.2% | 29 | 28.0 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 847 | $36.11 | 3.2% | 39 | 37.5 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 787 | $33.54 | 3.2% | 29 | 40.4 | 0.72× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 474 | $20.25 | 3.2% | 59 | 67.1 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 231 | $14.87 | 4.8% | 133 | 137.4 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 153 | $9.86 | 4.8% | 202 | 207.4 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $7.11 | 4.8% | 275 | 287.6 | 0.96× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $5.49 | 4.8% | 332 | 372.6 | 0.89× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $5.47 | 4.8% | 338 | 373.8 | 0.90× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $3.43 | 4.8% | 520 | 596.2 | 0.87× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $3.23 | 4.8% | 611 | 633.1 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Vino Primo (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-vino-primo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $2.98 | 5.0% | 606 | 711.7 | 0.85× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $2.84 | 5.0% | 656 | 746.7 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $2.28 | 5.0% | 886 | 930.3 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.82 | 5.0% | 1,065 | 1165.4 | 0.91× |
| [MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.61 | 5.0% | 1,247 | 1317.5 | 0.95× |
| [UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $1.52 | 5.0% | 1,275 | 1395.4 | 0.91× |
| [P90 \| Neoqueen (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-neoqueen-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $1.40 | 0.9% | 297 | 266.0 | 1.12× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-well-worn) | 1 in 115 | $1.35 | 0.9% | 495 | 275.8 | 1.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 106 | $1.24 | 0.9% | 293 | 300.3 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-block-18-well-worn) | 1 in 106 | $1.24 | 0.9% | 545 | 300.3 | 1.81× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 97 | $1.14 | 0.9% | 511 | 326.4 | 1.57× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-battle-scarred) | 1 in 87 | $1.02 | 0.9% | 430 | 364.9 | 1.18× |
| [StatTrak™ Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-zeus-x27-tosai-well-worn) | 1 in 77 | $0.90 | 0.9% | 455 | 413.6 | 1.10× |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $0.70 | 0.9% | 551 | 531.6 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $0.68 | 0.9% | 557 | 547.6 | 1.02× |
| [SSG 08 \| Zeno (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $0.58 | 0.9% | 670 | 641.7 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $0.33 | 0.5% | 710 | 593.1 | 1.20× |
| [Sticker \| Good Sports sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-good-sports) | 1 in 50 | $0.31 | 0.5% | 777 | 630.6 | 1.23× |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $0.25 | 0.5% | 911 | 782.0 | 1.16× |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $0.20 | 0.5% | 913 | 977.7 | 0.93× |
| [UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-roadblock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $0.19 | 0.5% | 1,045 | 1028.9 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Slag (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-slag-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.14 | 0.5% | 1,520 | 1396.4 | 1.09× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.11 | 0.5% | 1,819 | 1777.2 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $0.09 | 0.5% | 2,064 | 2172.4 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Lefty (CT) sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lefty-ct) | 1 in 11 | $0.07 | 0.5% | 2,920 | 2793.1 | 1.05× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) | 10.5% | $0.06 | 0.5% | 3,105 | 3334.0 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-battle-scarred) | 10.2% | $0.06 | 0.5% | 2,871 | 3258.6 | 0.88× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635262`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-well-worn) [Kebab\_33skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kebab_33skins.army) $1.50 $158 105.0x 2026-11-05 09:05 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-well-worn) [\\\_☆𝓢𝓮𝓫𝓪89☆\_/](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%5C_%E2%98%86%F0%9D%93%A2%F0%9D%93%AE%F0%9D%93%AB%F0%9D%93%AA89%E2%98%86_%2F) $1.50 $158 105.0x 2026-11-04 20:46 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-well-worn) Hidden $1.50 $158 105.0x 2026-11-04 20:46 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-well-worn) [Wikuś](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Wiku%C5%9B) $1.50 $158 105.0x 2026-11-03 16:11 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-well-worn) Hidden $1.50 $145 96.37x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-well-worn) [Felek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Felek) $1.50 $145 96.37x 2026-11-09 17:20 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-well-worn) [\[KREVEA\] Taraszka.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%5BKREVEA%5D%20Taraszka.skins.army) $1.50 $145 96.37x 2026-11-08 20:11 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-well-worn) [......](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/......) $1.50 $145 96.37x 2026-11-08 09:06 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-well-worn) Hidden $1.50 $145 96.37x 2026-11-08 00:32 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-boreal-forest-well-worn) Hidden $1.50 $145 96.37x 2026-11-06 21:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635262)

[Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) Hidden $1.50 $0.06 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC

[M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.50 $0.06 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC

[MAC-10 | Light Box (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-well-worn) [zeke$$$hima](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/zeke%24%24%24hima) $1.50 $0.20 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:42 UTC

[UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-field-tested) Hidden $1.50 $0.09 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

[Sticker | Lefty (CT) sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lefty-ct) Hidden $1.50 $0.07 0.05x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

[UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-moonrise-factory-new) [Kiler F](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kiler%20F) $1.50 $1.52 1.01x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.50 $3.43 2.29x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) Hidden $1.50 $0.06 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Flashback (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-flashback-battle-scarred) [PUSIO | skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/PUSIO%20%7C%20skins.army) $1.50 $3.43 2.29x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Sky Blue (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-well-worn) [Solidarjusz skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Solidarjusz%20skins.army) $1.50 $0.06 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 18:07 UTC | $1.50 | 88.96% | 41 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.50 | 88.98% | 41 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% covert 0.1% uncommon 0.1% red 0.1% classified 0.8% Legendary 1.8% Classified 0.9% pink 2.2% restricted 15.3% #8847ff 9.7% Rare 3.7% violet 0.9% #4b69ff 36.3% Mythical 1.7% industrial 5.6% common 10.5% light blue 10.2% best hit $158 (105.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.96 on average: an expected loss of $11.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt