---
title: "Cache Control case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Cache Control ($5.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.88% from 50 items with odds, observed 89.48% over 4,055 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635263
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Cache Control](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635263)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Cache Control

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635263?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635263?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635263) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635263?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 88.88% · EV $4.44 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.48% · 4,055 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.15% ±20.46 509 openings

7 days · 86.40% ±8.01 3,357 openings

30 days · 89.48% ±7.31 4,055 openings

since tracking started · 89.48% ±7.31 4,055 openings

77.0% 98.3% 119.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635263?window=24h) | 509 | 98.15% ±20.5 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635263?window=7d) | 3,357 | 86.40% ±8.01 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635263) | 4,055 | 89.48% ±7.31 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635263?window=all) | 4,055 | 89.48% ±7.31 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,070 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $495 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $270 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,545 | $232 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,545 | $228 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,545 | $224 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $206 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-well-worn) | 1 in 2,500 | $126 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.23× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 2,041 | $102 | 1.1% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-well-worn) | 1 in 1,235 | $61.40 | 1.1% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 1,190 | $59.20 | 1.1% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,087 | $54.31 | 1.1% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.80× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 1,042 | $51.82 | 1.1% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 355 | $42.99 | 2.7% | 9 | 11.5 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-field-tested) | 1 in 342 | $41.58 | 2.7% | 9 | 11.9 | 0.76× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-well-worn) | 1 in 246 | $29.84 | 2.7% | 20 | 16.6 | 1.21× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 230 | $28.01 | 2.7% | 23 | 17.7 | 1.30× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $24.28 | 2.7% | 13 | 20.4 | 0.64× |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-xiangliu-well-worn) | 1 in 190 | $23.07 | 2.7% | 17 | 21.4 | 0.79× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 168 | $20.44 | 2.7% | 24 | 24.2 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-minimal-wear) | 1 in 166 | $20.19 | 2.7% | 10 | 24.5 | 0.41× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $19.25 | 2.7% | 33 | 25.7 | 1.28× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $18.94 | 2.7% | 17 | 26.1 | 0.65× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $18.92 | 2.7% | 21 | 26.1 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-field-tested) | 1 in 126 | $15.33 | 2.7% | 39 | 32.2 | 1.21× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $12.16 | 2.7% | 44 | 40.7 | 1.08× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-wasteland-princess-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $11.18 | 2.7% | 44 | 44.2 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $9.88 | 4.9% | 72 | 89.9 | 0.80× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $8.79 | 4.9% | 88 | 101.0 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $8.55 | 4.9% | 126 | 103.8 | 1.21× |
| [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $7.34 | 4.9% | 131 | 121.0 | 1.08× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $5.92 | 4.9% | 148 | 150.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $5.76 | 4.9% | 192 | 154.1 | 1.25× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $5.47 | 4.9% | 162 | 162.3 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $5.23 | 4.9% | 173 | 169.8 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $4.20 | 0.9% | 104 | 37.6 | 2.77× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-battle-scarred) | 1 in 108 | $4.18 | 0.9% | 35 | 37.7 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 104 | $4.05 | 0.9% | 47 | 38.9 | 1.21× |
| [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $2.17 | 0.9% | 53 | 72.7 | 0.73× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Triumvirate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-triumvirate-well-worn) | 1 in 54 | $2.08 | 0.9% | 72 | 75.8 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Pulse (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-pulse-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $1.50 | 0.9% | 88 | 105.1 | 0.84× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $1.23 | 0.9% | 127 | 128.2 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $1.23 | 0.9% | 122 | 128.2 | 0.95× |
| [MP5-SD \| Statics (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-statics-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $0.42 | 0.2% | 125 | 107.2 | 1.17× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crazy-8-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $0.41 | 0.2% | 104 | 109.8 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Luxe Trim (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-luxe-trim-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.33 | 0.2% | 118 | 136.4 | 0.86× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipsqueak-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $0.31 | 0.2% | 141 | 145.2 | 0.97× |
| [Galil AR \| Metallic Squeezer (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-metallic-squeezer-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $0.21 | 0.2% | 224 | 214.4 | 1.04× |
| [MAG-7 \| Foresight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-field-tested) | 10.1% | $0.11 | 0.2% | 445 | 409.3 | 1.09× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-field-tested) | 11.2% | $0.10 | 0.3% | 463 | 455.4 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-well-worn) | 11.1% | $0.10 | 0.2% | 366 | 450.2 | 0.81× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635263`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-well-worn) Hidden $5.00 $590 118.0x 2026-11-04 10:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635263)

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.10 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-handgun-battle-scarred) [DnaMoczanowa](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DnaMoczanowa) $5.00 $1.23 0.25x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[AWP | Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-battle-scarred) [kick.com/RadmeR77](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kick.com%2FRadmeR77) $5.00 $4.18 0.84x 2026-11-11 18:45 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.10 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyberforce (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-well-worn) Hidden $5.00 $0.10 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyberforce (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-well-worn) Hidden $5.00 $0.10 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

[StatTrak™ AUG | Luxe Trim (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-luxe-trim-well-worn) [SZVMCIU skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SZVMCIU%20skins.army) $5.00 $0.33 0.07x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.11 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

[MAG-7 | Foresight (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-foresight-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $0.11 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

[FAMAS | Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) Hidden $5.00 $9.88 1.98x 2026-11-11 18:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 19:45 UTC | $5.00 | 88.88% | 50 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $5.00 | 88.95% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.5% covert knife 0.1% extraordinary 0.0% sunny 0.0% mil spec 2.7% Immortal 0.0% restricted 8.7% red 0.3% classified 11.6% pink 5.6% Mythical 0.6% Rare 1.0% Legendary 5.1% violet 5.8% industrial 1.8% milspec 20.4% #8847ff 3.1% #4b69ff 32.5% best hit $590 (118.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.88 on average: an expected loss of $11.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt