---
title: "Goal Machine case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Goal Machine ($7.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.25% from 35 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635283
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:56Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Goal Machine](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635283)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Goal Machine

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635283?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635283?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635283) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635283?window=all)

Price · $7.00

Advertised RTP · 89.25% · EV $6.25 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 12.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 28 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635283?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635283?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635283) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635283?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $788 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,226 | $519 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 2,439 | $398 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-field-tested) | 1 in 2,273 | $367 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 1,961 | $318 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blood-in-the-water-factory-new) | 1 in 1,538 | $248 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 1,020 | $165 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 943 | $153 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 877 | $142 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Dark Age (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-field-tested) | 1 in 847 | $137 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 680 | $110 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 662 | $107 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $80.78 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Prism Terrace (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-prism-terrace-factory-new) | 1 in 408 | $69.12 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 398 | $67.49 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 379 | $64.04 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) | 1 in 280 | $47.40 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 249 | $42.15 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-field-tested) | 1 in 232 | $39.31 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 225 | $38.15 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 194 | $32.85 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-field-tested) | 1 in 184 | $31.09 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-field-tested) | 1 in 142 | $23.97 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-field-tested) | 1 in 141 | $23.93 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $22.00 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 96 | $16.26 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $11.13 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $9.72 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $8.62 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $7.84 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $7.37 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $4.87 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mudder (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mudder-field-tested) | 26.0% | $0.33 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 12.8% | $0.33 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Contractor (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-contractor-field-tested) | 32.1% | $0.04 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635283`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635283)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $7.00 | 89.25% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.1% covert 0.8% restricted 4.6% #4b69ff 4.9% red 0.7% violet 0.2% classified 4.9% pink 0.4% industrial 40.0% mil spec 0.5% Legendary 1.0% #8847ff 5.3% #d32ee6 4.5% consumer 32.1%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.25 on average: an expected loss of $10.75 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt