---
title: "Morning Fog case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Morning Fog ($2.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.89% from 43 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635287
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Morning Fog](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635287)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Morning Fog

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635287?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635287?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635287) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635287?window=all)

Price · $2.00

Advertised RTP · 88.89% · EV $1.78 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 13.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635287?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635287?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635287) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635287?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 2,703 | $134 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 654 | $32.75 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 645 | $32.27 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-factory-new) | 1 in 617 | $30.89 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 422 | $21.14 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 562 | $17.53 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 543 | $16.97 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) | 1 in 538 | $16.80 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 513 | $16.02 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 474 | $14.78 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 422 | $13.16 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 310 | $9.67 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-sacrifice-factory-new) | 1 in 262 | $8.21 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 260 | $8.14 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) | 1 in 194 | $6.06 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 159 | $4.97 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $4.48 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 141 | $4.42 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 139 | $4.35 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 137 | $4.28 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 128 | $4.01 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $3.91 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $3.82 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $3.73 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $3.40 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $3.12 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $2.87 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.00 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 150 | $1.93 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $1.61 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 118 | $1.52 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-sacrifice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 107 | $1.38 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 98 | $1.26 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $0.89 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 63 | $0.81 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $0.73 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $0.72 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.53 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-sacrifice-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $0.52 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.51 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $0.50 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.41 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-battle-scarred) | 45.8% | $0.33 | 8.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635287`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635287)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.00 | 88.89% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 6.1% mil spec 10.0% Rare 3.6% #4b69ff 49.2% Legendary 3.2% restricted 11.7% Restricted 0.7% pink 2.7% milspec 9.5% #d32ee6 3.2%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.89 on average: an expected loss of $11.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt