---
title: "Rolling Thunder case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Rolling Thunder ($4.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.76% from 42 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635288
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Rolling Thunder](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635288)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Rolling Thunder

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635288?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635288?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635288) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635288?window=all)

Price · $4.00

Advertised RTP · 88.76% · EV $3.55 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 60.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635288?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635288?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635288) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635288?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 1,639 | $132 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 1,613 | $129 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 952 | $76.29 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-battle-scarred) | 1 in 746 | $59.58 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-well-worn) | 1 in 521 | $41.64 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 1 in 248 | $22.15 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 216 | $19.31 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 197 | $17.56 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 189 | $16.81 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 167 | $14.90 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-monkey-business-well-worn) | 1 in 146 | $13.02 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Parallax (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-parallax-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $12.04 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) | 1 in 131 | $11.72 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-monkey-business-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $11.58 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-factory-new) | 1 in 122 | $10.84 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-momentum-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $8.11 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $8.06 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-pole-position-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $7.36 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $7.14 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $7.08 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Brother (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-brother-factory-new) | 1 in 52 | $6.23 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-factory-new) | 1 in 51 | $6.09 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $5.86 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $5.66 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-decommissioned-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $5.31 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $4.92 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $4.90 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $4.77 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $4.71 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $4.64 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $4.31 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-battle-scarred) | 1 in 139 | $3.98 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $2.07 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-monster-call-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $1.91 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $1.16 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Runic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-runic-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $1.13 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Runic (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-runic-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.98 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.71 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.57 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-darkwing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $0.51 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-battle-scarred) | 11.1% | $0.45 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-monster-call-battle-scarred) | 15.3% | $0.39 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635288`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635288)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $4.00 | 88.76% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.3% restricted 11.6% red 0.2% classified 8.8% Restricted 3.2% Classified 0.8% mil spec 4.8% pink 1.7% #8847ff 31.9% milspec 2.2% violet 24.1% Mythical 2.4% Rare 2.5% #4b69ff 5.4%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.76 on average: an expected loss of $11.24 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt