---
title: "Urban Monsoon case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Urban Monsoon ($20.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.99% from 37 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635290
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Urban Monsoon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635290)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Urban Monsoon

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635290?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635290?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635290) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635290?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 88.99% · EV $17.80 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 7.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 10 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635290?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635290?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635290) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635290?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $2,485 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 398 | $350 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 175 | $154 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 129 | $113 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 1 in 123 | $108 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 89 | $96.05 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $87.21 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-victoria-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $80.31 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $71.42 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $53.24 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $49.63 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $48.24 | 6.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $39.96 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $37.43 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $35.59 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $31.10 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $30.86 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $28.84 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $28.10 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $27.79 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 221 | $13.61 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 186 | $11.43 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 162 | $9.98 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 117 | $7.18 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $7.11 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $7.02 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 107 | $6.58 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $4.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $3.93 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $2.99 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $2.35 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.44 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.24 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.65 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $0.55 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Tom Cat (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Contractor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-contractor-battle-scarred) | 33.8% | $0.03 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635290`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635290)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $20.00 | 88.99% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% covert 10.9% classified 9.4% Ancient 3.2% mil spec 2.2% Legendary 3.1% #87c7ff 2.0% #d32ce6 2.2% Mythical 2.7% #8847ff 2.4% #4b69ff 0.9% blue 3.6% restricted 9.2% Rare 3.3% Restricted 2.6% milspec 8.3% #777777 33.8%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.99 on average: an expected loss of $11.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt