---
title: "Boltz case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Boltz ($1.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.84% from 32 items with odds, observed 88.09% over 30.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635291
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:53Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Boltz](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635291)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Boltz

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635291?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635291?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635291) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635291?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 88.84% · EV $0.89 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.09% · 30.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 10.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.31% ±9.21 4,918 openings

7 days · 87.75% ±4.11 24.7K openings

30 days · 88.09% ±3.70 30.4K openings

since tracking started · 88.09% ±3.70 30.4K openings

80.5% 90.3% 100.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635291?window=24h) | 4,918 | 90.31% ±9.21 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635291?window=7d) | 24.7K | 87.75% ±4.11 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635291) | 30.4K | 88.09% ±3.70 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635291?window=all) | 30.4K | 88.09% ±3.70 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $138 | 1.6% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.66× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Guerrilla (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $101 | 1.6% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.17× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $70.15 | 1.6% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.15× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,000 | $54.67 | 1.5% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 3,448 | $48.58 | 1.6% | 10 | 8.8 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 2,941 | $41.45 | 1.6% | 6 | 10.4 | 0.58× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Hypnotic (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 2,564 | $35.65 | 1.6% | 14 | 11.9 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,564 | $35.27 | 1.5% | 14 | 11.9 | 1.18× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-factory-new) | 1 in 2,174 | $30.16 | 1.6% | 8 | 14.0 | 0.57× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 1,562 | $21.57 | 1.6% | 15 | 19.5 | 0.77× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-copper-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 1,515 | $21.00 | 1.6% | 18 | 20.1 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 1,493 | $20.63 | 1.6% | 18 | 20.4 | 0.88× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 1,449 | $20.17 | 1.6% | 24 | 21.0 | 1.14× |
| [P2000 \| Turf (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-factory-new) | 1 in 1,351 | $18.65 | 1.6% | 25 | 22.6 | 1.11× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,163 | $16.10 | 1.6% | 31 | 26.2 | 1.18× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 1,136 | $15.71 | 1.6% | 26 | 26.8 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $15.51 | 1.6% | 27 | 27.4 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 800 | $11.09 | 1.6% | 37 | 38.1 | 0.97× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-factory-new) | 1 in 168 | $7.18 | 4.8% | 181 | 181.9 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 137 | $5.86 | 4.8% | 235 | 222.8 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $4.51 | 4.8% | 278 | 289.5 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 94 | $4.04 | 4.8% | 304 | 323.4 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $2.88 | 4.8% | 464 | 453.5 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $2.82 | 4.8% | 418 | 463.2 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $2.23 | 4.8% | 591 | 585.7 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $1.70 | 5.7% | 897 | 908.5 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $1.47 | 5.7% | 1,126 | 1050.5 | 1.07× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.46 | 5.7% | 1,115 | 1057.5 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.32 | 5.7% | 1,153 | 1169.7 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.24 | 5.7% | 1,227 | 1245.2 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1.24 | 5.7% | 1,306 | 1245.2 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| Bolt Energy sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-energy) | 68.8% | $0.05 | 3.9% | 20,888 | 20979.1 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635291`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $138 138.4x 2026-11-10 17:18 UTC

[M4A1-S | Flashback (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-factory-new) [rosół](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ros%C3%B3%C5%82) $1.00 $138 138.4x 2026-11-03 20:02 UTC

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-well-worn) Hidden $1.00 $101 100.5x 2026-11-11 00:41 UTC

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-well-worn) Hidden $1.00 $101 100.5x 2026-11-10 21:37 UTC

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-well-worn) [KRD-TOM1KR](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KRD-TOM1KR) $1.00 $101 100.5x 2026-11-08 15:57 UTC

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-well-worn) Hidden $1.00 $101 100.5x 2026-11-07 16:01 UTC

[★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-guerrilla-well-worn) [kubson2443.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kubson2443.skins.army) $1.00 $101 100.5x 2026-11-04 06:19 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $70.15 70.15x 2026-11-09 21:08 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $70.15 70.15x 2026-11-09 18:40 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $70.15 70.15x 2026-11-06 18:42 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635291)

[Sticker | Bolt Energy sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-energy) [xMilo skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/xMilo%20skins.army) $1.00 $0.05 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[Sticker | Bolt Energy sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-energy) [sevenik777\_pl skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sevenik777_pl%20skins.army) $1.00 $0.05 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[Sticker | Bolt Energy sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-energy) [Suppa](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Suppa) $1.00 $0.05 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) [bamz0r ★](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/bamz0r%20%E2%98%85) $1.00 $5.86 5.86x 2026-11-11 19:52 UTC

[Sticker | Bolt Energy sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-energy) Hidden $1.00 $0.05 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[Sticker | Bolt Energy sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-energy) Hidden $1.00 $0.05 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[Sticker | Bolt Energy sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-energy) [Ślepy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%C5%9Alepy) $1.00 $0.05 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) [Scooby Jew](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Scooby%20Jew) $1.00 $1.32 1.32x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) [Voltimus](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Voltimus) $1.00 $2.82 2.82x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

[Sticker | Bolt Energy sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-bolt-energy) [bamz0r ★](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/bamz0r%20%E2%98%85) $1.00 $0.05 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.00 | 88.84% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Mythical 0.1% extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.0% industrial 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% #8847ff 4.0% restricted 8.6% classified 0.5% Rare 2.0% mil spec 8.3% violet 3.5% #4b69ff 72.9% best hit $138 (138.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.84 on average: an expected loss of $11.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt