--- title: "Glow Fiesta case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Glow Fiesta ($0.30) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.95% from 27 items with odds, observed 89.48% over 221K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635292 rendered: 2026-11-11T20:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Glow Fiesta](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635292) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Glow Fiesta A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635292?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635292?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635292) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635292?window=all) Price · $0.30 Advertised RTP · 88.95% · EV $0.27 from 27 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.48% · 221K openings, odds method Variance · 13.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 71.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.14% ±4.53 24.6K openings 7 days · 89.27% ±1.71 172K openings 30 days · 89.48% ±1.51 221K openings since tracking started · 89.48% ±1.51 221K openings 86.0% 91.3% 96.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635292?window=24h) | 24.6K | 91.14% ±4.53 | +0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635292?window=7d) | 172K | 89.27% ±1.71 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635292) | 221K | 89.48% ±1.51 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635292?window=all) | 221K | 89.48% ±1.51 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 222K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $32.38 | 2.1% | 47 | 37.8 | 1.24× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $31.28 | 2.0% | 38 | 37.8 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $28.48 | 2.0% | 45 | 42.2 | 1.07× | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $22.21 | 2.1% | 63 | 55.6 | 1.13× | | [P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $20.56 | 2.1% | 55 | 60.0 | 0.92× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $20.17 | 2.0% | 70 | 60.0 | 1.17× | | [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,030 | $16.63 | 2.1% | 64 | 73.3 | 0.87× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $11.00 | 2.1% | 102 | 111.1 | 0.92× | | [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 820 | $4.46 | 2.0% | 272 | 271.2 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 769 | $4.21 | 2.1% | 297 | 288.9 | 1.03× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 680 | $3.70 | 2.0% | 319 | 326.7 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 213 | $2.83 | 5.0% | 1,025 | 1044.7 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $2.04 | 5.0% | 1,394 | 1447.0 | 0.96× | | [Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 112 | $1.49 | 5.0% | 1,964 | 1982.6 | 0.99× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) | 1 in 107 | $1.42 | 5.0% | 2,079 | 2080.4 | 1.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $1.23 | 5.0% | 2,524 | 2400.5 | 1.05× | | [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $1.14 | 5.0% | 2,565 | 2589.4 | 0.99× | | [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $1.01 | 5.0% | 2,914 | 2922.8 | 1.00× | | [M249 \| System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $0.52 | 4.0% | 4,629 | 4540.9 | 1.02× | | [P250 \| Iron Clad (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-iron-clad-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $0.47 | 4.0% | 5,023 | 5025.5 | 1.00× | | [MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $0.47 | 4.0% | 5,129 | 5025.5 | 1.02× | | [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $0.42 | 4.0% | 5,572 | 5623.4 | 0.99× | | [Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.42 | 4.0% | 5,584 | 5623.4 | 0.99× | | [Negev \| Dazzle (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dazzle-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $0.41 | 4.0% | 5,734 | 5758.9 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-flame-test-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $0.32 | 4.0% | 7,457 | 7379.3 | 1.01× | | [Negev \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.30 | 4.0% | 7,814 | 7872.7 | 0.99× | | [Zeus x27 \| Swamp DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-well-worn) | 71.8% | $0.04 | 10.8% | 159,488 | 159585.5 | 1.00× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635292`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.30 $32.38 107.9x 2026-11-11 16:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [MUCHA 🎰 ✞skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MUCHA%20%F0%9F%8E%B0%20%E2%9C%9Eskins.army) $0.30 $32.38 107.9x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.30 $32.38 107.9x 2026-11-11 14:36 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [Masia412.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Masia412.skins.army) $0.30 $32.38 107.9x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.30 $32.38 107.9x 2026-11-11 03:14 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.30 $32.38 107.9x 2026-11-11 00:34 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.30 $32.38 107.9x 2026-11-11 00:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [Anszczur mała pała](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Anszczur%20ma%C5%82a%20pa%C5%82a) $0.30 $32.38 107.9x 2026-11-10 22:04 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) [koneyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/koneyy) $0.30 $32.38 107.9x 2026-11-10 16:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.30 $32.38 107.9x 2026-11-09 23:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635292) [Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) Hidden $0.30 $0.42 1.40x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dualing-dragons-field-tested) Hidden $0.30 $0.42 1.40x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $0.30 $0.04 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-well-worn) [zeammoonskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/zeammoonskins.army) $0.30 $0.04 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [M249 | System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) Hidden $0.30 $0.52 1.73x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $0.30 $0.04 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [Negev | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-man-o-war-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.30 $0.30 1.00x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-well-worn) [zeammoonskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/zeammoonskins.army) $0.30 $0.04 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $0.30 $0.04 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC [Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-swamp-ddpat-well-worn) Hidden $0.30 $0.04 0.13x 2026-11-11 20:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $0.30 | 88.95% | 27 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.1% Classified 0.0% Mythical 0.0% mil spec 8.5% restricted 3.4% #d32ee6 0.1% #8847ff 1.5% Rare 0.7% violet 1.1% #4b69ff 12.9% #b0c3d9 71.8% best hit $32.38 (107.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.95 on average: an expected loss of $11.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt