--- title: "Golden Coast case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Golden Coast ($0.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.95% from 32 items with odds, observed 88.22% over 111K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635293 rendered: 2026-11-11T18:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Golden Coast](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635293) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Golden Coast A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635293?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635293?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635293) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635293?window=all) Price · $0.50 Advertised RTP · 88.95% · EV $0.44 from 32 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.22% · 111K openings, odds method Variance · 9.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 67.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.28% ±5.26 13.4K openings 7 days · 87.51% ±2.20 90.4K openings 30 days · 88.22% ±1.99 111K openings since tracking started · 88.22% ±1.99 111K openings 84.5% 90.8% 97.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635293?window=24h) | 13.4K | 91.28% ±5.26 | +0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635293?window=7d) | 90.4K | 87.51% ±2.20 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635293) | 111K | 88.22% ±1.99 | −0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635293?window=all) | 111K | 88.22% ±1.99 | −0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 112K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 4,762 | $37.96 | 1.8% | 23 | 23.5 | 0.98× | | [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $32.48 | 1.8% | 25 | 26.8 | 0.93× | | [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 3,846 | $30.31 | 1.8% | 27 | 29.0 | 0.93× | | [P250 \| Mehndi (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-factory-new) | 1 in 3,846 | $30.05 | 1.8% | 28 | 29.0 | 0.96× | | [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 3,846 | $30.04 | 1.8% | 20 | 29.0 | 0.69× | | [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,704 | $28.81 | 1.7% | 28 | 30.2 | 0.93× | | [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $22.52 | 1.8% | 25 | 39.1 | 0.64× | | [Galil AR \| Blue Titanium (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-blue-titanium-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $15.96 | 1.8% | 25 | 55.8 | 0.45× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,887 | $14.96 | 1.8% | 80 | 59.2 | 1.35× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,389 | $10.99 | 1.8% | 69 | 80.4 | 0.86× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 847 | $6.69 | 1.8% | 119 | 131.8 | 0.90× | | [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $5.65 | 1.8% | 138 | 156.3 | 0.88× | | [Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 190 | $3.33 | 3.9% | 433 | 587.4 | 0.74× | | [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 183 | $3.20 | 3.9% | 486 | 610.8 | 0.80× | | [Nova \| Koi (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 173 | $3.03 | 3.9% | 478 | 645.5 | 0.74× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 161 | $2.82 | 3.9% | 708 | 693.5 | 1.02× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 147 | $2.57 | 3.9% | 613 | 760.5 | 0.81× | | [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 127 | $2.23 | 3.9% | 670 | 876.6 | 0.76× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-corinthian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $2.06 | 3.9% | 664 | 949.2 | 0.70× | | [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 99 | $1.73 | 3.9% | 629 | 1130.1 | 0.56× | | [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $1.25 | 3.9% | 1,221 | 1563.4 | 0.78× | | [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-quicksilver-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $1.14 | 3.9% | 1,316 | 1714.1 | 0.77× | | [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $0.98 | 3.9% | 2,299 | 1963.2 | 1.17× | | [G3SG1 \| Keeping Tabs (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-keeping-tabs-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $0.77 | 3.9% | 584 | 2498.1 | 0.23× | | [M249 \| Deep Relief (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-deep-relief-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $0.71 | 3.9% | 719 | 2709.1 | 0.27× | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $0.71 | 3.9% | 749 | 2709.1 | 0.28× | | [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $0.60 | 3.9% | 844 | 3204.9 | 0.26× | | [StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Kitbash (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp5-sd-kitbash-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $0.60 | 3.9% | 818 | 3204.9 | 0.26× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboozle-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $0.59 | 3.9% | 836 | 3259.6 | 0.26× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Tuxedo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tuxedo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $0.58 | 3.9% | 2,057 | 3315.5 | 0.62× | | [MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.52 | 3.9% | 4,362 | 3698.5 | 1.18× | | [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-minimal-wear) | 67.1% | $0.03 | 4.5% | 68,486 | 74885.9 | 0.91× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635293`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 $57.66 115.3x 2026-11-08 21:19 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) [luvM0ney.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/luvM0ney.skins.army) $0.50 $57.66 115.3x 2026-11-08 19:35 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 $57.66 115.3x 2026-11-08 18:35 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) [bigblackmonkey skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/bigblackmonkey%20skins.army) $0.50 $57.66 115.3x 2026-11-08 10:13 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 $57.66 115.3x 2026-11-07 07:32 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) [poro](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/poro) $0.50 $57.66 115.3x 2026-11-06 14:41 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) [LEOL SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/LEOL%20SKINS) $0.50 $57.66 115.3x 2026-11-05 23:16 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 $57.66 115.3x 2026-11-05 17:21 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 $57.66 115.3x 2026-11-05 16:10 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 $57.66 115.3x 2026-11-05 12:29 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635293) [Nova | Koi (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-factory-new) Hidden $0.50 $3.03 6.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.50 $0.03 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.50 $0.03 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-minimal-wear) [kacpi](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kacpi) $0.50 $0.03 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.50 $0.03 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.50 $0.03 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.50 $0.03 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-minimal-wear) [kacpi](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kacpi) $0.50 $0.03 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.50 $0.03 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC [Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Minimal Wear) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.50 $0.03 0.06x 2026-11-11 18:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 21:11 UTC | $0.50 | 88.95% | 32 | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $0.50 | 88.90% | 32 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 0.1% restricted 10.9% mil spec 5.4% pink 0.1% Mythical 1.1% #4b69ff 2.2% milspec 2.6% Mil Spec 2.2% Mil Spec Grade 2.4% violet 2.9% Rare 3.0% #b0c3d9 67.1% best hit $57.66 (115.3x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.95 on average: an expected loss of $11.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt