---
title: "Rio Vibes case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Rio Vibes ($1.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.87% from 33 items with odds, observed 84.04% over 32.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635295
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:44Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Rio Vibes](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635295)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Rio Vibes

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635295?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635295?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635295) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635295?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 88.87% · EV $0.89 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.04% · 32.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 13.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.13% ±10.66 4,427 openings

7 days · 84.40% ±4.40 26K openings

30 days · 84.04% ±3.94 32.4K openings

since tracking started · 84.04% ±3.94 32.4K openings

79.0% 90.3% 101.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 88.87% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.10% – 87.98%, 32,351 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635295?window=24h) | 4,427 | 90.13% ±10.7 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635295?window=7d) | 26K | 84.40% ±4.40 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635295) | 32.4K | 84.04% ±3.94 | −2.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635295?window=all) | 32.4K | 84.04% ±3.94 | −2.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Convoy (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $107 | 1.7% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.88× |
| [M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-dark-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $79.22 | 1.7% | 0 | 6.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $76.62 | 1.6% | 6 | 6.2 | 0.97× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,762 | $68.77 | 1.6% | 4 | 6.8 | 0.59× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,545 | $68.65 | 1.7% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.56× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $59.35 | 1.7% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.86× |
| [UMP-45 \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,571 | $52.93 | 1.7% | 6 | 9.1 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 3,571 | $52.34 | 1.6% | 5 | 9.1 | 0.55× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,448 | $51.41 | 1.7% | 15 | 9.4 | 1.59× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-well-worn) | 1 in 3,448 | $50.16 | 1.6% | 6 | 9.4 | 0.64× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Transport (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-transport-field-tested) | 1 in 2,941 | $43.15 | 1.7% | 12 | 11.0 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 1,887 | $28.03 | 1.7% | 16 | 17.2 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,724 | $25.50 | 1.7% | 23 | 18.8 | 1.22× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 1 in 1,724 | $25.49 | 1.7% | 20 | 18.8 | 1.06× |
| [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,149 | $17.03 | 1.7% | 24 | 28.2 | 0.85× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,124 | $16.63 | 1.7% | 27 | 28.9 | 0.93× |
| [Tec-9 \| Ossified (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-ossified-minimal-wear) | 1 in 862 | $12.77 | 1.7% | 30 | 37.6 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-well-worn) | 1 in 162 | $6.08 | 4.2% | 198 | 200.2 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $4.18 | 4.2% | 312 | 291.1 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 108 | $4.04 | 4.2% | 283 | 301.2 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $3.37 | 4.2% | 337 | 361.2 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $3.19 | 4.2% | 353 | 381.6 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $3.12 | 4.2% | 400 | 390.1 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-corinthian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $2.26 | 4.2% | 508 | 538.4 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $2.22 | 4.2% | 559 | 548.1 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $1.60 | 5.1% | 917 | 918.7 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $1.47 | 5.1% | 965 | 999.9 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Pulse (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-pulse-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $1.44 | 5.1% | 1,039 | 1020.6 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $1.42 | 5.1% | 1,022 | 1034.9 | 0.99× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 31 | $1.40 | 5.1% | 998 | 1049.9 | 0.95× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.31 | 5.1% | 1,141 | 1121.9 | 1.02× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.16 | 5.1% | 1,331 | 1267.0 | 1.05× |
| [P90 \| Desert Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-field-tested) | 67.1% | $0.03 | 2.3% | 21,881 | 21791.5 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635295`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-well-worn) [DeS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DeS) $1.00 $107 107.4x 2026-11-11 16:18 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-well-worn) Hidden $1.00 $107 107.4x 2026-11-11 14:26 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-well-worn) [pequ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/pequ) $1.00 $107 107.4x 2026-11-10 20:13 UTC

[★ Driver Gloves | Convoy (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-convoy-well-worn) [me3sii skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/me3sii%20skins.army) $1.00 $107 107.4x 2026-11-06 09:33 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-well-worn) Hidden $1.00 $76.62 76.62x 2026-11-10 19:11 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-well-worn) [B0Bl](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/B0Bl) $1.00 $76.62 76.62x 2026-11-09 11:14 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-well-worn) Hidden $1.00 $76.62 76.62x 2026-11-08 18:13 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-well-worn) Hidden $1.00 $76.62 76.62x 2026-11-06 14:33 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-well-worn) Hidden $1.00 $76.62 76.62x 2026-11-04 17:35 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-night-well-worn) Hidden $1.00 $76.62 76.62x 2026-11-04 10:32 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635295)

[P90 | Desert Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.03 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.00 $1.42 1.42x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC

[P90 | Desert Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-field-tested) [crkzzz2v](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/crkzzz2v) $1.00 $0.03 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC

[P90 | Desert Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.03 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC

[P90 | Desert Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.03 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC

[P90 | Desert Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-field-tested) [El chapo.skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/El%20chapo.skins.army) $1.00 $0.03 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:43 UTC

[M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $3.12 3.12x 2026-11-11 19:41 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-directive-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $2.22 2.22x 2026-11-11 19:41 UTC

[P90 | Desert Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.03 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:41 UTC

[P90 | Desert Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-halftone-field-tested) [pawulon skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/pawulon%20skins.army) $1.00 $0.03 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.00 | 88.87% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.1% restricted 4.9% covert knife 0.0% covert 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% sunny 0.0% milspec 1.7% classified 2.0% industrial 0.7% mil spec 6.8% #4b69ff 4.4% Uncommon 1.2% Mythical 1.2% violet 9.8% #b0c3d9 67.1% best hit $107 (107.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.87 on average: an expected loss of $11.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt