---
title: "Samba Night case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Samba Night ($1.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.91% from 46 items with odds, observed 92.37% over 25.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635296
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Samba Night](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635296)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Samba Night

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635296?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635296?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635296) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635296?window=all)

Price · $1.50

Advertised RTP · 88.91% · EV $1.33 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.37% · 25.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 13.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 105.38% ±11.96 3,623 openings

7 days · 92.27% ±4.99 20.8K openings

30 days · 92.37% ±4.49 25.7K openings

since tracking started · 92.37% ±4.49 25.7K openings

86.5% 102.3% 118.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635296?window=24h) | 3,623 | 105.38% ±12.0 | +2.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635296?window=7d) | 20.8K | 92.27% ±4.99 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635296) | 25.7K | 92.37% ±4.49 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635296?window=all) | 25.7K | 92.37% ±4.49 | +1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $149 | 1.3% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $134 | 1.4% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 6,250 | $116 | 1.4% | 7 | 4.1 | 1.70× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Diamondback (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-diamondback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,556 | $103 | 1.4% | 8 | 4.6 | 1.72× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,263 | $97.68 | 1.4% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.22× |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-well-worn) | 1 in 5,263 | $95.24 | 1.4% | 10 | 4.9 | 2.04× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Tranquility (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-tranquility-factory-new) | 1 in 4,545 | $83.35 | 1.4% | 9 | 5.7 | 1.59× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,348 | $81.46 | 1.4% | 3 | 5.9 | 0.51× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 4,167 | $77.10 | 1.4% | 5 | 6.2 | 0.81× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 4,000 | $73.34 | 1.4% | 3 | 6.4 | 0.47× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-bloomstick-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $73.07 | 1.4% | 4 | 6.4 | 0.62× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-field-tested) | 1 in 3,704 | $68.48 | 1.4% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-orange-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,571 | $65.47 | 1.4% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.55× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,448 | $63.02 | 1.4% | 8 | 7.5 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 2,703 | $49.72 | 1.4% | 13 | 9.5 | 1.36× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,439 | $45.79 | 1.4% | 17 | 10.6 | 1.61× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,083 | $38.75 | 1.4% | 10 | 12.4 | 0.81× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Graven (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-graven-field-tested) | 1 in 2,083 | $38.31 | 1.4% | 13 | 12.4 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 1,754 | $32.49 | 1.4% | 13 | 14.7 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Afterimage (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-afterimage-field-tested) | 1 in 1,613 | $29.80 | 1.4% | 20 | 16.0 | 1.25× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 1,333 | $24.89 | 1.4% | 22 | 19.3 | 1.14× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 1 in 556 | $13.11 | 1.8% | 34 | 46.4 | 0.73× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500 | $11.74 | 1.8% | 64 | 51.6 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 476 | $11.18 | 1.8% | 59 | 54.1 | 1.09× |
| [P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 467 | $10.99 | 1.8% | 48 | 55.2 | 0.87× |
| [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 314 | $7.41 | 1.8% | 73 | 82.0 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 262 | $6.16 | 1.8% | 118 | 98.5 | 1.20× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-harvester-factory-new) | 1 in 246 | $5.80 | 1.8% | 111 | 104.7 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-pp-bizon-photic-zone-factory-new) | 1 in 241 | $5.67 | 1.8% | 115 | 107.0 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-sandstorm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 239 | $5.62 | 1.8% | 100 | 108.0 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-royal-legion-well-worn) | 1 in 212 | $4.98 | 1.8% | 112 | 121.7 | 0.92× |
| [P250 \| Mint Kimono (Field-Tested) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-field-tested) | 1 in 211 | $4.96 | 1.8% | 137 | 122.2 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 209 | $4.92 | 1.8% | 112 | 123.3 | 0.91× |
| [P250 \| Contamination (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-minimal-wear) | 1 in 181 | $4.26 | 1.8% | 147 | 142.3 | 1.03× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 169 | $3.98 | 1.8% | 130 | 152.4 | 0.85× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-factory-new) | 1 in 169 | $3.97 | 1.8% | 141 | 152.9 | 0.92× |
| [P250 \| Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $3.10 | 1.8% | 182 | 195.7 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-field-tested) | 1 in 131 | $3.08 | 1.8% | 202 | 197.0 | 1.03× |
| [Nova \| Koi (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $3.01 | 5.6% | 620 | 635.1 | 0.98× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Zander (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-zander-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $2.95 | 5.6% | 668 | 648.0 | 1.03× |
| [AUG \| Colony (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-colony-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $2.28 | 5.6% | 874 | 838.5 | 1.04× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $2.05 | 5.6% | 974 | 932.6 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Kami (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-kami-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $2.01 | 5.6% | 989 | 951.2 | 1.04× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1.84 | 5.6% | 1,060 | 1038.9 | 1.02× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Green Marine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-green-marine-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.64 | 5.6% | 1,140 | 1165.7 | 0.98× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Runoff (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-well-worn) | 67.8% | $0.04 | 2.0% | 17,386 | 17487.4 | 0.99× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635296`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) [OLE1KK](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/OLE1KK) $1.50 $149 99.27x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.50 $149 99.27x 2026-11-10 19:31 UTC

[P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.50 $149 99.27x 2026-11-04 13:39 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $1.50 $134 89.25x 2026-11-11 15:58 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $1.50 $134 89.25x 2026-11-11 00:12 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) [Simply\_022 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Simply_022%20skins.army) $1.50 $134 89.25x 2026-11-08 13:57 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) Hidden $1.50 $134 89.25x 2026-11-03 20:14 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $1.50 $116 77.58x 2026-11-11 15:17 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [.#00](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/.%2300) $1.50 $116 77.58x 2026-11-09 07:19 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $1.50 $116 77.58x 2026-11-08 11:06 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635296)

[Sawed-Off | Runoff (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-well-worn) Hidden $1.50 $0.04 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Runoff (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-well-worn) [pazdan666SKINS“skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/pazdan666SKINS%E2%80%9Cskins.army%E2%80%9D) $1.50 $0.04 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Runoff (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-well-worn) Hidden $1.50 $0.04 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Runoff (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-well-worn) [pazdan666SKINS“skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/pazdan666SKINS%E2%80%9Cskins.army%E2%80%9D) $1.50 $0.04 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Runoff (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-well-worn) [sernikbambaryla skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sernikbambaryla%20skins.army) $1.50 $0.04 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Runoff (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-well-worn) [TEYVEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/TEYVEN) $1.50 $0.04 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:48 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Runoff (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-well-worn) Hidden $1.50 $0.04 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

[AUG | Colony (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-colony-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.50 $2.28 1.52x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Runoff (Well-Worn) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-runoff-well-worn) [pastuh \*](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/pastuh%20*-76561198412073685) $1.50 $0.04 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.50 $11.18 7.45x 2026-11-11 18:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.50 | 88.91% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 5.4% covert knife 0.0% covert 0.0% sunny 0.0% classified 0.5% extraordinary 0.1% #d32ee6 0.2% Classified 0.0% #8847ff 0.0% mil spec 3.9% milspec 0.6% violet 0.9% Rare 8.9% #4b69ff 4.7% Consumer Grade 0.5% industrial 0.6% Mythical 2.5% #777777 3.3% #b0c3d9 67.8% best hit $149 (99.27x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.91 on average: an expected loss of $11.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt