---
title: "Tropical Bloom case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Tropical Bloom ($0.90) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.81% from 40 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635326
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Tropical Bloom](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635326)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Tropical Bloom

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635326?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635326?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635326) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635326?window=all)

Price · $0.90

Advertised RTP · 88.81% · EV $0.80 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 9.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635326?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635326?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635326) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635326?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $143 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $138 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,500 | $104 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $83.44 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,333 | $71.97 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 7,143 | $58.94 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $41.32 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Racing Green (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-racing-green-battle-scarred) | 1 in 5,000 | $41.15 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 3,704 | $31.19 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 2,941 | $24.72 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 1 in 2,041 | $17.12 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,724 | $14.25 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-field-tested) | 1 in 322 | $9.64 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 264 | $7.91 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 264 | $7.91 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-mortis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 212 | $6.35 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 204 | $6.11 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 164 | $4.91 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 148 | $4.44 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $4.35 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-well-worn) | 1 in 116 | $3.49 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $2.19 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $1.87 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Gnarled (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-gnarled-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $1.67 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $1.43 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-minimal-wear) | 1 in 38 | $1.32 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-battle-scarred) | 1 in 35 | $1.21 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $1.17 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $1.13 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $1.08 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $0.78 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $0.57 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Creep (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-creep-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $0.47 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $0.41 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.30 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $0.22 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Memorial (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.15 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-well-worn) | 12.1% | $0.11 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-well-worn) | 22.1% | $0.06 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.06 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635326`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635326)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $0.90 | 88.81% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert knife 0.0% covert 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% Ancient 0.0% rare 0.0% Legendary 0.5% classified 1.4% restricted 1.7% pink 1.2% Classified 0.7% violet 8.7% #4b69ff 29.1% #d32ce6 2.4% Mythical 4.3% #8847ff 8.3% Rare 2.8% Mil Spec 3.2% milspec 4.4% #5e98d9 31.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.81 on average: an expected loss of $11.19 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt