---
title: "SAJU case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SAJU ($10.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.88% from 46 items with odds, observed 90.14% over 2,050 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635356
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [SAJU](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635356)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · SAJU

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635356?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635356?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635356) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635356?window=all)

Price · $10.00

Advertised RTP · 88.88% · EV $8.89 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.14% · 2,050 openings, odds method

Variance · 10.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 68.09% ±40.20 231 openings

7 days · 93.48% ±13.94 1,626 openings

30 days · 90.14% ±12.38 2,050 openings

since tracking started · 90.14% ±12.38 2,050 openings

27.0% 68.0% 109.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635356?window=24h) | 231 | 68.09% ±40.2 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635356?window=7d) | 1,626 | 93.48% ±13.9 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635356) | 2,050 | 90.14% ±12.4 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635356?window=all) | 2,050 | 90.14% ±12.4 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,050 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,091 | $1,638 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 6,667 | $1,243 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 3,571 | $658 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,887 | $345 | 2.1% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.84× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,695 | $309 | 2.1% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.65× |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-field-tested) | 1 in 1,493 | $273 | 2.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) | 1 in 1,235 | $223 | 2.0% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.81× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Factory New) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $182 | 2.1% | 4 | 2.0 | 1.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-battle-scarred) | 1 in 735 | $134 | 2.0% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 725 | $132 | 2.1% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.35× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 599 | $109 | 2.0% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.46× |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-battle-scarred) | 1 in 189 | $94.66 | 5.6% | 5 | 10.9 | 0.46× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $55.57 | 5.6% | 13 | 18.5 | 0.70× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $29.35 | 5.6% | 22 | 35.0 | 0.63× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $24.30 | 5.6% | 32 | 42.3 | 0.76× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 41 | $20.38 | 5.6% | 28 | 50.5 | 0.55× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $20.30 | 5.6% | 50 | 50.7 | 0.99× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $19.27 | 3.5% | 30 | 32.7 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $16.78 | 3.5% | 38 | 37.5 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $16.29 | 3.5% | 36 | 38.6 | 0.93× |
| [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-minimal-wear) | 1 in 51 | $15.68 | 3.5% | 34 | 40.1 | 0.85× |
| [P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $15.20 | 3.5% | 51 | 41.4 | 1.23× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $14.76 | 3.5% | 43 | 42.7 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Tiger Pit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-tiger-pit-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $14.71 | 3.5% | 49 | 42.8 | 1.14× |
| [XM1014 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-heaven-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $13.65 | 3.5% | 47 | 46.1 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $12.41 | 3.5% | 41 | 50.7 | 0.81× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $10.68 | 3.5% | 62 | 58.9 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $10.38 | 3.5% | 63 | 60.6 | 1.04× |
| [G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-the-executioner-battle-scarred) | 1 in 281 | $8.80 | 0.4% | 37 | 7.3 | 5.07× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-naga-minimal-wear) | 1 in 256 | $8.02 | 0.4% | 5 | 8.0 | 0.63× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-gold-bismuth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 236 | $7.40 | 0.4% | 8 | 8.7 | 0.92× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Sweet Little Angels (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-sweet-little-angels-factory-new) | 1 in 233 | $7.30 | 0.4% | 76 | 8.8 | 8.64× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 136 | $4.26 | 0.4% | 18 | 15.1 | 1.19× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Retribution (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-retribution-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $3.42 | 0.4% | 29 | 18.8 | 1.55× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $2.65 | 0.4% | 32 | 24.2 | 1.32× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $2.56 | 0.4% | 28 | 25.1 | 1.12× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-embargo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $1.89 | 0.4% | 49 | 33.9 | 1.44× |
| [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-flora-carnivora-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $1.84 | 0.4% | 44 | 34.9 | 1.26× |
| [MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-classic-crate-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $1.56 | 0.4% | 56 | 41.1 | 1.36× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $1.43 | 0.4% | 42 | 44.9 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $1.00 | 0.4% | 67 | 64.2 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.68 | 0.2% | 52 | 51.2 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Hypnosis (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-hypnosis-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $0.32 | 0.2% | 156 | 108.9 | 1.43× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Briefing (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-briefing-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.21 | 0.2% | 138 | 165.9 | 0.83× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-minimal-wear) | 11.3% | $0.15 | 0.2% | 193 | 232.3 | 0.83× |
| [Galil AR \| Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-minimal-wear) | 21.4% | $0.08 | 0.2% | 357 | 439.0 | 0.81× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635356`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $10.00 $761 76.14x 2026-11-05 09:57 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635356)

[Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.00 $0.08 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-field-tested) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $10.00 $10.68 1.07x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.00 $20.38 2.04x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-factory-new) [Eck0](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Eck0) $10.00 $24.30 2.43x 2026-11-11 19:13 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.00 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC

[Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-factory-new) Hidden $10.00 $24.30 2.43x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Orange Peel (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-orange-peel-minimal-wear) [Michu57](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Michu57) $10.00 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC

[MAC-10 | Saibā Oni (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-saiba-oni-battle-scarred) Hidden $10.00 $1.00 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC

[StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 $10.38 1.04x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC

[Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-robins-egg-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.00 $0.08 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $10.00 | 88.88% | 46 |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $10.00 | 88.88% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 12.4% covert 0.2% #ffd700 0.1% Ancient 0.1% #d32ee6 0.1% #eb4b4b 0.1% extraordinary 0.2% covert knife 0.9% milspec 15.1% rare 4.5% Restricted 1.6% Rare 1.9% Mil Spec Grade 2.0% #4b69ff 5.0% restricted 8.7% #d32ce6 3.0% pink 0.4% Mythical 2.9% #8847ff 5.7% uncommon 0.4% mil spec 2.0% Uncommon 11.3% #5e98d9 21.4% best hit $761 (76.14x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.88 on average: an expected loss of $11.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt