---
title: "RIFLER MOUZ case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "RIFLER MOUZ ($11.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.91% from 33 items with odds, observed 84.40% over 2,502 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635427
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [RIFLER MOUZ](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635427)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · RIFLER MOUZ

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635427?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635427?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635427) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635427?window=all)

Price · $11.00

Advertised RTP · 88.91% · EV $9.78 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.40% · 2,502 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.18% ±25.57 369 openings

7 days · 85.36% ±10.78 2,075 openings

30 days · 84.40% ±9.82 2,502 openings

since tracking started · 84.40% ±9.82 2,502 openings

66.0% 92.3% 118.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635427?window=24h) | 369 | 92.18% ±25.6 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635427?window=7d) | 2,075 | 85.36% ±10.8 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635427) | 2,502 | 84.40% ±9.82 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635427?window=all) | 2,502 | 84.40% ±9.82 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,516 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,167 | $873 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 2,941 | $631 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 1,515 | $319 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.20× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 709 | $151 | 2.2% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.13× |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-well-worn) | 1 in 649 | $138 | 2.2% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.29× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 649 | $137 | 2.2% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 633 | $134 | 2.2% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-well-worn) | 1 in 625 | $132 | 2.2% | 9 | 4.0 | 2.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 546 | $116 | 2.2% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-minimal-wear) | 1 in 162 | $90.04 | 5.7% | 13 | 15.6 | 0.83× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $86.58 | 5.7% | 11 | 16.2 | 0.68× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-well-worn) | 1 in 145 | $80.63 | 5.7% | 16 | 17.4 | 0.92× |
| [Galil AR \| CAUTION! (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-caution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 123 | $68.46 | 5.7% | 17 | 20.5 | 0.83× |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $47.00 | 5.7% | 29 | 29.8 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $29.94 | 5.7% | 45 | 46.8 | 0.96× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-well-worn) | 1 in 42 | $23.68 | 5.7% | 64 | 59.2 | 1.08× |
| [P2000 \| Pathfinder (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pathfinder-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $20.15 | 3.9% | 51 | 48.0 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $19.02 | 3.9% | 62 | 50.8 | 1.22× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $17.40 | 3.9% | 46 | 55.5 | 0.83× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $16.79 | 3.9% | 55 | 57.5 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $16.15 | 3.9% | 54 | 59.8 | 0.90× |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $15.92 | 3.9% | 66 | 60.7 | 1.09× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $15.48 | 3.9% | 68 | 62.4 | 1.09× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $14.16 | 3.9% | 65 | 68.2 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $13.51 | 3.9% | 77 | 71.5 | 1.08× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $11.02 | 3.9% | 87 | 87.7 | 0.99× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Tango (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-tango-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $0.61 | 0.2% | 72 | 79.0 | 0.91× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $0.54 | 0.2% | 97 | 89.2 | 1.09× |
| [Negev \| Prototype (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-prototype-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.34 | 0.2% | 144 | 141.7 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.32 | 0.2% | 139 | 150.5 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $0.30 | 0.2% | 174 | 160.5 | 1.08× |
| [G3SG1 \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-minimal-wear) | 13.7% | $0.14 | 0.2% | 346 | 344.0 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Wash me (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wash-me-field-tested) | 27.7% | $0.07 | 0.2% | 688 | 696.5 | 0.99× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635427`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635427)

[G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.00 $0.14 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[P90 | Wash me (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wash-me-field-tested) Hidden $11.00 $0.07 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Tango (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-tango-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.00 $0.61 0.06x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-minimal-wear) [LucciBerezaskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/LucciBerezaskins.army) $11.00 $0.14 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[P90 | Wash me (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wash-me-field-tested) Hidden $11.00 $0.07 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-battle-scarred) Hidden $11.00 $0.30 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.00 $0.14 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-danger-close-minimal-wear) [Big Yahu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Big%20Yahu) $11.00 $0.32 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[G3SG1 | Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-green-apple-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.00 $0.14 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) Hidden $11.00 $0.54 0.05x 2026-11-11 20:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $11.00 | 88.91% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 3.5% covert 0.7% #d32ee6 0.0% red 0.1% restricted 5.0% classified 12.0% sunny 0.6% #87c7ff 5.4% industrial 16.1% #4b69ff 11.9% Legendary 2.5% mil spec 2.7% blue 5.6% Rare 6.0% #5e98d9 27.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.91 on average: an expected loss of $11.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt