---
title: "LURKER MOUZ case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "LURKER MOUZ ($14.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.00% from 33 items with odds, observed 85.79% over 2,453 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635428
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [LURKER MOUZ](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635428)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · LURKER MOUZ

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635428?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635428?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635428) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635428?window=all)

Price · $14.00

Advertised RTP · 89.00% · EV $12.46 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.79% · 2,453 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 78.07% ±30.53 284 openings

7 days · 86.51% ±12.24 1,768 openings

30 days · 85.79% ±10.39 2,453 openings

since tracking started · 85.79% ±10.39 2,453 openings

47.0% 78.3% 109.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635428?window=24h) | 284 | 78.07% ±30.5 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635428?window=7d) | 1,768 | 86.51% ±12.2 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635428) | 2,453 | 85.79% ±10.4 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635428?window=all) | 2,453 | 85.79% ±10.4 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,453 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,439 | $976 | 3.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-field-tested) | 1 in 1,852 | $739 | 3.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 709 | $284 | 3.2% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.16× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 541 | $216 | 3.2% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.66× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 397 | $158 | 3.2% | 7 | 6.2 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 364 | $145 | 3.2% | 11 | 6.7 | 1.63× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 357 | $143 | 3.2% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 277 | $137 | 4.0% | 8 | 8.9 | 0.90× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 251 | $124 | 4.0% | 5 | 9.8 | 0.51× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-well-worn) | 1 in 228 | $113 | 4.0% | 15 | 10.8 | 1.39× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 194 | $95.94 | 4.0% | 15 | 12.6 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $54.14 | 4.0% | 22 | 22.4 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $42.16 | 4.0% | 32 | 28.7 | 1.11× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $39.06 | 4.0% | 30 | 31.0 | 0.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $38.41 | 4.0% | 31 | 31.5 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $35.05 | 4.0% | 45 | 34.6 | 1.30× |
| [Elite Trapper Solman \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/elite-trapper-solman-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 70 | $34.36 | 4.0% | 34 | 35.3 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $25.08 | 4.1% | 35 | 50.0 | 0.70× |
| [Negev \| Phoenix Stencil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-phoenix-stencil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $23.68 | 4.1% | 58 | 52.9 | 1.10× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $23.08 | 4.1% | 47 | 54.3 | 0.87× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $23.02 | 4.1% | 61 | 54.5 | 1.12× |
| [P2000 \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pathfinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $18.69 | 4.1% | 86 | 67.1 | 1.28× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $17.72 | 4.1% | 73 | 70.7 | 1.03× |
| [FAMAS \| Sergeant (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sergeant-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $15.60 | 4.1% | 73 | 80.4 | 0.91× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $14.41 | 4.1% | 86 | 87.0 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $14.07 | 4.1% | 93 | 89.1 | 1.04× |
| [Nova \| Yorkshire (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-yorkshire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 90 | 93.0 | 0.97× |
| [Negev \| Dazzle (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dazzle-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.39 | 0.1% | 99 | 109.6 | 0.90× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.19 | 0.1% | 235 | 225.0 | 1.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.19 | 0.1% | 220 | 225.0 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Granite Marbleized (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-battle-scarred) | 10.3% | $0.17 | 0.1% | 252 | 251.5 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-minimal-wear) | 11.6% | $0.15 | 0.1% | 302 | 285.0 | 1.06× |
| [AUG \| Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) | 16.4% | $0.11 | 0.1% | 375 | 402.2 | 0.93× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635428`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635428)

[UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:11 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) [𝐏𝐔𝐊 Norris](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%90%8F%F0%9D%90%94%F0%9D%90%8A%20Norris) $14.00 $17.72 1.27x 2026-11-11 20:11 UTC

[P2000 | Granite Marbleized (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-granite-marbleized-battle-scarred) Hidden $14.00 $0.17 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-factory-new) Hidden $14.00 $17.72 1.27x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC

[Nova | Yorkshire (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-yorkshire-minimal-wear) Hidden $14.00 $0.46 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC

[Negev | Dazzle (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dazzle-field-tested) [Jarosław skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jaros%C5%82aw%20skins.army) $14.00 $0.39 0.03x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-well-worn) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $14.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) [Aga to Ziomal](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Aga%20to%20Ziomal) $14.00 $0.11 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-battle-scarred) [Zagniewany](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Zagniewany) $14.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC

[P2000 | Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pathfinder-minimal-wear) [borygo3434 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/borygo3434%20skins.army) $14.00 $18.69 1.34x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $14.00 | 89.00% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% Classified 0.1% sunny 0.1% covert 0.7% red 0.3% restricted 7.7% covert knife 0.4% extraordinary 0.4% gold 0.5% classified 9.5% Ancient 1.3% pink 5.0% #d32ce6 2.0% #4b69ff 15.8% mil spec 2.2% industrial 2.7% milspec 3.8% blue 20.8% #87c7ff 26.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.00 on average: an expected loss of $11.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt