--- title: "COACH MOUZ case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "COACH MOUZ ($17.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.88% from 35 items with odds, observed 107.08% over 1,337 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635429 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [COACH MOUZ](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635429) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · COACH MOUZ A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635429?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635429?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635429) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635429?window=all) Price · $17.00 Advertised RTP · 88.88% · EV $15.11 from 35 items Observed RTP, 30d · 107.08% · 1,337 openings, odds method Variance · 13.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 30 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 116.24% ±56.71 162 openings 7 days · 102.24% ±22.50 1,029 openings 30 days · 107.08% ±19.74 1,337 openings since tracking started · 107.08% ±19.74 1,337 openings 59.0% 116.3% 173.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635429?window=24h) | 162 | 116.24% ±56.7 | +0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635429?window=7d) | 1,029 | 102.24% ±22.5 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635429) | 1,337 | 107.08% ±19.7 | +1.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635429?window=all) | 1,337 | 107.08% ±19.7 | +1.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,339 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 2,041 | $1,366 | 4.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,332 | 4.4% | 3 | 0.7 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 1,010 | $676 | 4.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 980 | $660 | 4.5% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 741 | $498 | 4.5% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.55× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 714 | $481 | 4.5% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-field-tested) | 1 in 256 | $172 | 4.4% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× | | [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 312 | $159 | 3.4% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.63× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 289 | $147 | 3.4% | 7 | 4.6 | 1.51× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 278 | $141 | 3.4% | 7 | 4.8 | 1.45× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-forest-ddpat-well-worn) | 1 in 260 | $132 | 3.4% | 10 | 5.2 | 1.94× | | [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 239 | $122 | 3.4% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.25× | | [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-well-worn) | 1 in 169 | $86.17 | 3.4% | 6 | 7.9 | 0.76× | | [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 136 | $69.44 | 3.4% | 11 | 9.8 | 1.12× | | [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $66.89 | 3.4% | 8 | 10.2 | 0.79× | | [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 114 | $58.01 | 3.4% | 12 | 11.8 | 1.02× | | [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $40.14 | 3.4% | 10 | 17.0 | 0.59× | | [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $39.14 | 3.4% | 17 | 17.4 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $33.90 | 3.4% | 21 | 20.1 | 1.04× | | [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $33.42 | 3.4% | 20 | 20.4 | 0.98× | | [P90 \| Virus (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $33.18 | 3.4% | 27 | 20.5 | 1.31× | | [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $31.70 | 3.4% | 20 | 21.5 | 0.93× | | [Nova \| Red Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-red-quartz-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $30.72 | 3.4% | 22 | 22.2 | 0.99× | | [P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $29.98 | 3.4% | 33 | 22.7 | 1.45× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-field-tested) | 1 in 54 | $27.68 | 3.4% | 22 | 24.6 | 0.89× | | [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $23.50 | 3.4% | 29 | 29.0 | 1.00× | | [StatTrak™ P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $21.88 | 3.4% | 34 | 31.1 | 1.09× | | [Nova \| Ranger (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-ranger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.67 | 0.2% | 56 | 58.7 | 0.95× | | [Sawed-Off \| Fusion (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-fusion-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.67 | 0.2% | 47 | 58.7 | 0.80× | | [MAC-10 \| Rangeen (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-rangeen-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.50 | 0.2% | 76 | 78.7 | 0.97× | | [M249 \| Downtown (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.42 | 0.2% | 96 | 93.6 | 1.03× | | [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.35 | 0.2% | 121 | 112.4 | 1.08× | | [SG 553 \| Ol' Rusty (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ol-rusty-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.33 | 0.2% | 135 | 119.2 | 1.13× | | [XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-calicamo-factory-new) | 10.5% | $0.28 | 0.2% | 130 | 140.5 | 0.93× | | [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) | 26.4% | $0.11 | 0.2% | 335 | 353.5 | 0.95× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635429`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) [ADM](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ADM) $17.00 $1,366 80.38x 2026-11-10 20:08 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.00 $1,332 78.32x 2026-11-08 21:38 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) [Zedziu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Zedziu) $17.00 $1,332 78.32x 2026-11-04 02:36 UTC [M4A4 | Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.00 $1,332 78.32x 2026-11-03 16:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) [Klaud](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Klaud) $17.00 $676 39.75x 2026-11-05 03:49 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $17.00 $660 38.80x 2026-11-06 13:07 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635429) [FAMAS | Meltdown (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.00 $39.14 2.30x 2026-11-11 19:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Groundwater (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-battle-scarred) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $17.00 $33.42 1.97x 2026-11-11 19:06 UTC [XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-calicamo-factory-new) [WOLF](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/WOLF) $17.00 $0.28 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:06 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $17.00 $0.11 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) [User0 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/User0%20skins.army) $17.00 $0.11 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:05 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.00 $0.35 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [XM1014 | CaliCamo (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-calicamo-factory-new) [kryvha1skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kryvha1skins.army) $17.00 $0.28 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:43 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $17.00 $0.11 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.00 $0.35 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-field-tested) Hidden $17.00 $0.11 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $17.00 | 88.88% | 35 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 2.6% classified 9.6% Restricted 0.1% red 1.2% #ffd700 0.4% restricted 5.6% industrial 27.9% violet 8.5% #8847ff 1.7% milspec 4.4% #4b69ff 13.3% Rare 14.3% #87c7ff 10.5% best hit $1,366 (80.38x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.88 on average: an expected loss of $11.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt