---
title: "IGL MOUZ case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "IGL MOUZ ($20.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.92% from 34 items with odds, observed 87.70% over 1,169 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635430
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:28Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [IGL MOUZ](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635430)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · IGL MOUZ

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635430?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635430?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635430) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635430?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 88.92% · EV $17.78 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.70% · 1,169 openings, odds method

Variance · 10.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 68.15% ±54.14 136 openings

7 days · 90.11% ±22.08 818 openings

30 days · 87.70% ±18.47 1,169 openings

since tracking started · 87.70% ±18.47 1,169 openings

13.5% 68.3% 123.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635430?window=24h) | 136 | 68.15% ±54.1 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635430?window=7d) | 818 | 90.11% ±22.1 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635430) | 1,169 | 87.70% ±18.5 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635430?window=all) | 1,169 | 87.70% ±18.5 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,178 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · #ffd700 · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 2,703 | $1,906 | 4.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,031 | $722 | 3.9% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 952 | $666 | 3.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 781 | $547 | 3.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) | 1 in 617 | $431 | 3.9% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-well-worn) | 1 in 532 | $373 | 3.9% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-well-worn) | 1 in 505 | $353 | 3.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-field-tested) | 1 in 351 | $245 | 3.9% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.49× |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-field-tested) | 1 in 287 | $182 | 3.6% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 267 | $169 | 3.6% | 7 | 4.4 | 1.58× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 213 | $135 | 3.6% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.91× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 155 | $98.14 | 3.6% | 5 | 7.6 | 0.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 151 | $95.56 | 3.6% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.15× |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-battle-scarred) | 1 in 138 | $87.55 | 3.6% | 10 | 8.5 | 1.17× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 136 | $86.16 | 3.6% | 17 | 8.7 | 1.96× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $48.60 | 3.6% | 18 | 15.3 | 1.17× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $40.79 | 3.6% | 13 | 18.3 | 0.71× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $36.58 | 4.0% | 27 | 22.7 | 1.19× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-modern-hunter-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $35.81 | 4.0% | 22 | 23.2 | 0.95× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $34.29 | 4.0% | 25 | 24.2 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $33.90 | 4.0% | 19 | 24.5 | 0.78× |
| [P90 \| Death Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-death-grip-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $32.00 | 4.0% | 26 | 26.0 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $29.96 | 4.0% | 24 | 27.7 | 0.87× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $28.64 | 4.0% | 23 | 29.0 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $20.08 | 4.0% | 37 | 41.4 | 0.89× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $20.04 | 4.0% | 44 | 41.5 | 1.06× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $1.20 | 0.1% | 20 | 16.0 | 1.25× |
| [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.36 | 0.1% | 49 | 53.2 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $0.33 | 0.1% | 66 | 58.0 | 1.14× |
| [P250 \| Cassette (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.19 | 0.1% | 104 | 100.8 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.19 | 0.1% | 95 | 100.8 | 0.94× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-stained-battle-scarred) | 10.8% | $0.15 | 0.1% | 137 | 127.6 | 1.07× |
| [AUG \| Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) | 16.4% | $0.11 | 0.1% | 185 | 193.0 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-battle-scarred) | 14.8% | $0.11 | 0.1% | 176 | 174.0 | 1.01× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635430`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · #ffd700 · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [kobikkk skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kobikkk%20skins.army) $20.00 $1,906 95.31x 2026-11-08 01:03 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear) [olszi997](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/olszi997) $20.00 $666 33.30x 2026-11-05 21:24 UTC

[AK-47 | X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) Hidden $20.00 $547 27.37x 2026-11-04 15:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635430)

[Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) Hidden $20.00 $86.16 4.31x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Modern Hunter (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-modern-hunter-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $35.81 1.79x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC

[P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-field-tested) [Psychoza](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Psychoza) $20.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:07 UTC

[MP9 | Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) Hidden $20.00 $28.64 1.43x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) Hidden $20.00 $20.04 1.00x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC

[P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC

[Negev | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-field-tested) [Jarosław skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jaros%C5%82aw%20skins.army) $20.00 $0.36 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC

[AUG | Condemned (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-condemned-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $0.11 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-battle-scarred) [Sniper\_21159 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Sniper_21159%20skins.army) $20.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:21 UTC

[P250 | Cassette (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cassette-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $20.00 | 88.92% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 0.0% restricted 2.5% covert knife 0.8% covert 5.6% legendary 0.2% classified 11.9% pink 0.3% #d32ee6 0.5% #8847ff 0.7% Mil Spec Grade 2.0% violet 2.2% industrial 14.3% #4b69ff 9.9% mil spec 9.4% milspec 8.6% #87c7ff 16.4% Uncommon 14.8% best hit $1,906 (95.31x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.92 on average: an expected loss of $11.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt