---
title: "Ex-Sport case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Ex-Sport ($3.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.99% from 46 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635434
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:37Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Ex-Sport](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635434)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Ex-Sport

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635434?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635434?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635434) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635434?window=all)

Price · $3.50

Advertised RTP · 88.99% · EV $3.11 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 18.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635434?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635434?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635434) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635434?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-well-worn) | 1 in 3,846 | $352 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 3,571 | $323 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,571 | $320 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,448 | $310 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,226 | $290 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 3,125 | $278 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-factory-new) | 1 in 2,564 | $230 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $223 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 418 | $37.72 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ancient-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 403 | $36.35 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Virus (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-factory-new) | 1 in 309 | $33.91 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 206 | $22.63 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Palm (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-palm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 203 | $22.38 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) | 1 in 198 | $21.80 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Attack Vector (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-factory-new) | 1 in 192 | $21.11 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 176 | $19.34 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 78 | $8.54 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) | 1 in 76 | $8.38 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $7.82 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 65 | $7.20 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 85 | $6.59 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $6.44 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $6.43 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 82 | $6.32 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 81 | $6.29 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $6.01 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $6.01 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $5.86 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $5.80 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $5.79 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $3.60 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 165 | $3.30 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 1 in 109 | $2.18 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Contamination (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-battle-scarred) | 1 in 97 | $1.95 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Watchdog (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $1.68 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-well-worn) | 1 in 82 | $1.64 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $1.60 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $0.99 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $0.90 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $0.49 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Halftone Wash (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-halftone-wash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.44 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.36 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Yorkshire (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-yorkshire-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.35 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Death Rattle (Well-Worn) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.22 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Sky Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-sky-blue-field-tested) | 18.8% | $0.08 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Wash me (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wash-me-battle-scarred) | 25.2% | $0.06 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635434`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635434)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.50 | 88.99% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% classified 2.9% covert 0.1% Restricted 0.2% violet 4.6% mil spec 7.2% #87c7ff 1.9% uncommon 0.5% restricted 4.6% Mythical 2.6% Legendary 2.7% pink 2.8% blue 3.6% #8847ff 2.5% industrial 19.8% Rare 2.0% milspec 6.5% #5e98d9 28.6% Industrial Grade 6.8%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.99 on average: an expected loss of $11.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt