---
title: "Island Survivor case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Island Survivor ($9.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.85% from 30 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635469
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:42Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Island Survivor](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635469)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Island Survivor

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635469?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635469?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635469) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635469?window=all)

Price · $9.00

Advertised RTP · 88.85% · EV $8.00 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 11.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635469?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635469?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635469) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635469?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,333 | $861 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-stained-field-tested) | 1 in 3,125 | $808 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 1,136 | $289 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-field-tested) | 1 in 1,099 | $281 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-well-worn) | 1 in 962 | $247 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fall Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fall-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 962 | $246 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 943 | $242 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Mosaico (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-mosaico-factory-new) | 1 in 413 | $106 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 352 | $90.09 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 236 | $87.91 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-scorched-battle-scarred) | 1 in 204 | $76.15 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 1 in 198 | $73.65 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 150 | $56.05 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-well-worn) | 1 in 84 | $31.18 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $20.59 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $18.74 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 48 | $18.05 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 49 | $17.58 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Sunset Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $14.44 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [1st Lieutenant Farlow \| SWAT agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/1st-lieutenant-farlow-swat) | 1 in 33 | $12.00 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $11.41 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Minimal Wear) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $10.68 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $10.09 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $9.03 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Fusion (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-fusion-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.90 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.80 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-oxide-blaze-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.58 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sky-mandala-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.44 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-trigger-discipline-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.36 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Tiger Stencil (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-tiger-stencil-well-worn) | 39.4% | $0.08 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635469`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635469)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $9.00 | 88.85% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 5.4% covert 1.2% classified 2.4% industrial 42.1% red 0.3% covert knife 0.5% Ancient 0.7% rare 1.2% mil spec 3.9% restricted 5.9% pink 7.0% violet 3.2% #87c7ff 3.4% #4b69ff 23.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.85 on average: an expected loss of $11.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt