---
title: "Gilded Fortune case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Gilded Fortune ($16.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.96% from 30 items with odds. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635470
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Gilded Fortune](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635470)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Gilded Fortune

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635470?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635470?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635470) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635470?window=all)

Price · $16.00

Advertised RTP · 88.96% · EV $14.23 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 14.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 21 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635470?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635470?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635470) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635470?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,564 | $1,588 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $1,574 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $1,364 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 704 | $439 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 386 | $240 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) | 1 in 309 | $192 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 295 | $183 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 258 | $160 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 258 | $160 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 301 | $155 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 84 | $43.35 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $40.14 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $34.78 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Red Rock (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $34.69 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $34.19 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $33.50 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 52 | $31.88 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 62 | $31.68 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $28.49 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $19.28 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Warbird (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-warbird-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $18.63 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $18.53 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $16.26 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $16.26 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-umbral-rabbit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $1.03 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $0.93 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $0.81 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Tom Cat (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-tom-cat-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $0.66 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Picnic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-picnic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.45 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-battle-scarred) | 42.3% | $0.08 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635470`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635470)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $16.00 | 88.96% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 8.5% covert 1.7% #d32ee6 0.6% restricted 2.2% covert knife 0.4% extraordinary 1.3% red 1.5% #8847ff 5.2% Restricted 1.9% rare 1.6% mil spec 5.5% blue 3.3% industrial 11.3% Mythical 3.3% #4b69ff 9.3% #5e98d9 42.3%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.96 on average: an expected loss of $11.04 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt