---
title: "Red Stickers case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Red Stickers ($5.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.85% from 38 items with odds, observed 92.31% over 9,970 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635473
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Red Stickers](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635473)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Red Stickers

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635473?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635473?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635473) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635473?window=all)

Price · $5.00

Advertised RTP · 88.85% · EV $4.44 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.31% · 9,970 openings, odds method

Variance · 19.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 107.65% ±20.93 1,707 openings

7 days · 94.89% ±9.50 8,284 openings

30 days · 92.31% ±8.66 9,970 openings

since tracking started · 92.31% ±8.66 9,970 openings

83.0% 106.0% 129.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635473?window=24h) | 1,707 | 107.65% ±20.9 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635473?window=7d) | 8,284 | 94.89% ±9.50 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635473) | 9,970 | 92.31% ±8.66 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635473?window=all) | 9,970 | 92.31% ±8.66 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) | 1 in 11,111 | $1,450 | 2.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Sticker \| 100 Thieves (Foil) \| Boston 2018 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-100-thieves-foil-boston-2018) | 1 in 5,556 | $754 | 3.1% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.66× |
| [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Foil) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-foil-katowice-2015) | 1 in 3,448 | $467 | 3.0% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 1,205 | $166 | 3.1% | 6 | 8.4 | 0.72× |
| [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Cologne 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-cologne-2014) | 1 in 826 | $113 | 3.1% | 11 | 12.2 | 0.90× |
| [Sticker \| GruBy (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gruby-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 690 | $94.16 | 3.1% | 19 | 14.6 | 1.30× |
| [Sticker \| 3DMAX \| Katowice 2015 sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-katowice-2015) | 1 in 671 | $91.69 | 3.1% | 10 | 15.0 | 0.67× |
| [Sticker \| DeadFox (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-deadfox-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 498 | $68.02 | 3.1% | 18 | 20.2 | 0.89× |
| [Sticker \| Astralis (Foil) \| Cologne 2016 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-foil-cologne-2016) | 1 in 476 | $65.09 | 3.1% | 31 | 21.1 | 1.47× |
| [Sticker \| mousesports (Foil) \| London 2018 sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-foil-london-2018) | 1 in 450 | $61.80 | 3.1% | 17 | 22.3 | 0.76× |
| [Sticker \| Spiidi (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-spiidi-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 78 | $33.15 | 9.5% | 114 | 128.5 | 0.89× |
| [Sticker \| mousesports (Foil) \| Berlin 2019 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-foil-berlin-2019) | 1 in 75 | $31.77 | 9.5% | 143 | 134.0 | 1.07× |
| [Sticker \| HellRaisers (Foil) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hellraisers-foil-katowice-2019) | 1 in 74 | $31.48 | 9.5% | 154 | 135.2 | 1.14× |
| [Sticker \| rain \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-krakow-2017) | 1 in 48 | $20.41 | 9.5% | 234 | 208.6 | 1.12× |
| [Sticker \| device \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-device-krakow-2017) | 1 in 39 | $16.32 | 9.5% | 274 | 260.8 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| kioShiMa \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kioshima-krakow-2017) | 1 in 13 | $5.57 | 9.5% | 780 | 764.3 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| MOUZ (Foil) \| Cologne 2026 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-foil-cologne-2026) | 1 in 13 | $5.47 | 9.5% | 764 | 778.2 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Dosia \| Krakow 2017 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dosia-krakow-2017) | 1 in 752 | $4.39 | 0.1% | 19 | 13.4 | 1.42× |
| [Sticker \| Battle Scarred sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 704 | $4.09 | 0.1% | 9 | 14.3 | 0.63× |
| [Sticker \| Hands Off (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hands-off-foil) | 1 in 389 | $2.26 | 0.1% | 30 | 25.9 | 1.16× |
| [Sticker \| S1ren (Holo, Ranked) \| Cologne 2026 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1ren-holo-ranked-cologne-2026) | 1 in 326 | $1.89 | 0.1% | 32 | 30.9 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| MOUZ (Foil, Ranked) \| Cologne 2026 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-foil-ranked-cologne-2026) | 1 in 298 | $1.73 | 0.1% | 37 | 33.8 | 1.09× |
| [Sticker \| Astralis \| Katowice 2019 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-katowice-2019) | 1 in 230 | $1.34 | 0.1% | 55 | 43.7 | 1.26× |
| [Sticker \| Assassin sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-assassin) | 1 in 172 | $1.00 | 0.1% | 52 | 58.5 | 0.89× |
| [Sticker \| Astralis \| Berlin 2019 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-astralis-berlin-2019) | 1 in 79 | $0.46 | 0.1% | 131 | 127.1 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Guardian Dragon sticker · #d2d2d2](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-guardian-dragon) | 1 in 57 | $0.33 | 0.1% | 153 | 177.2 | 0.86× |
| [Sticker \| MOUZ (Glitter) \| Copenhagen 2024 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-glitter-copenhagen-2024) | 1 in 57 | $0.33 | 0.1% | 172 | 177.2 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| Hi, My Game Is sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hi-my-game-is) | 1 in 52 | $0.30 | 0.1% | 177 | 194.9 | 0.91× |
| [Sticker \| FaZe Clan \| Copenhagen 2024 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-faze-clan-copenhagen-2024) | 1 in 43 | $0.25 | 0.1% | 238 | 234.0 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| TYLOO \| 2020 RMR sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tyloo-2020-rmr) | 1 in 38 | $0.22 | 0.1% | 266 | 265.8 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Scorch Loop sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-scorch-loop) | 1 in 29 | $0.17 | 0.1% | 346 | 344.0 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Heckler sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-heckler) | 1 in 26 | $0.15 | 0.1% | 393 | 389.9 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Brollan \| Copenhagen 2024 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-brollan-copenhagen-2024) | 1 in 24 | $0.14 | 0.1% | 420 | 417.7 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| MOUZ (Foil) \| Austin 2025 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-foil-austin-2025) | 1 in 19 | $0.11 | 0.1% | 531 | 531.6 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| 3DMAX (Embroidered) \| Budapest 2025 sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-3dmax-embroidered-budapest-2025) | 1 in 17 | $0.10 | 0.1% | 587 | 584.8 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| siuhy \| Copenhagen 2024 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-siuhy-copenhagen-2024) | 1 in 14 | $0.08 | 0.1% | 712 | 731.0 | 0.97× |
| [Sticker \| MOUZ (Glitter) \| Paris 2023 sticker · #D2D2D2](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-glitter-paris-2023) | 11.6% | $0.05 | 0.1% | 1,202 | 1169.6 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| MOUZ \| Rio 2022 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-rio-2022) | 19.6% | $0.03 | 0.1% | 1,923 | 1972.8 | 0.97× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635473`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Sticker | Howling Dawn sticker · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-howling-dawn) [MarcAmi005](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MarcAmi005) $5.00 $1,450 289.9x 2026-11-10 22:43 UTC

[Sticker | 100 Thieves (Foil) | Boston 2018 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-100-thieves-foil-boston-2018) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $5.00 $754 150.8x 2026-11-11 16:25 UTC

[Sticker | 100 Thieves (Foil) | Boston 2018 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-100-thieves-foil-boston-2018) [PSYCHODEVILS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/PSYCHODEVILS) $5.00 $754 150.8x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC

[Sticker | 100 Thieves (Foil) | Boston 2018 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-100-thieves-foil-boston-2018) [J4G1](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/J4G1) $5.00 $754 150.8x 2026-11-05 10:49 UTC

[Sticker | LGB eSports (Foil) | Katowice 2015 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-foil-katowice-2015) Hidden $5.00 $467 93.40x 2026-11-09 09:49 UTC

[Sticker | LGB eSports (Foil) | Katowice 2015 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-foil-katowice-2015) Hidden $5.00 $467 93.40x 2026-11-06 10:56 UTC

[Sticker | LGB eSports (Foil) | Katowice 2015 sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-foil-katowice-2015) [76561199009402576](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/76561199009402576) $5.00 $467 93.40x 2026-11-05 12:51 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635473)

[Sticker | Guardian Dragon sticker · #d2d2d2](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-guardian-dragon) Hidden $5.00 $0.33 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC

[Sticker | kioShiMa | Krakow 2017 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kioshima-krakow-2017) Hidden $5.00 $5.57 1.11x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC

[Sticker | MOUZ | Rio 2022 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-rio-2022) Hidden $5.00 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC

[Sticker | Hands Off (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-hands-off-foil) [type shittttt](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/type%20shittttt) $5.00 $2.26 0.45x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC

[Sticker | kioShiMa | Krakow 2017 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kioshima-krakow-2017) Hidden $5.00 $5.57 1.11x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC

[Sticker | MOUZ | Rio 2022 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-rio-2022) Hidden $5.00 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC

[Sticker | MOUZ | Rio 2022 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-rio-2022) [Kondiskins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kondiskins.army) $5.00 $0.03 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC

[Sticker | siuhy | Copenhagen 2024 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-siuhy-copenhagen-2024) Hidden $5.00 $0.08 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC

[Sticker | kioShiMa | Krakow 2017 sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kioshima-krakow-2017) [frevox](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/frevox) $5.00 $5.57 1.11x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC

[Sticker | mousesports (Foil) | Berlin 2019 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-foil-berlin-2019) [Rahmax](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Rahmax) $5.00 $31.77 6.35x 2026-11-11 20:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $5.00 | 88.85% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% exotic 1.6% #d32ce6 3.3% high 0.1% violet 0.3% pink 0.2% #4b69ff 57.9% #8847ff 20.9% Legendary 0.3% #d2d2d2 1.8% blue 1.9% #D2D2D2 11.6% best hit $1,450 (289.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.85 on average: an expected loss of $11.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt