---
title: "Autumn Bounty case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Autumn Bounty ($2.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.85% from 31 items with odds, observed 91.11% over 17K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635568
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Autumn Bounty](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635568)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Autumn Bounty

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635568?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635568?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635568) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635568?window=all)

Price · $2.50

Advertised RTP · 88.85% · EV $2.22 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.11% · 17K openings, odds method

Variance · 7.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.20% ±12.41 1,906 openings

7 days · 90.17% ±4.72 13.2K openings

30 days · 91.11% ±4.16 17K openings

since tracking started · 91.11% ±4.16 17K openings

78.0% 91.3% 104.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635568?window=24h) | 1,906 | 91.20% ±12.4 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635568?window=7d) | 13.2K | 90.17% ±4.72 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635568) | 17K | 91.11% ±4.16 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635568?window=all) | 17K | 91.11% ±4.16 | +1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 5,556 | $307 | 2.5% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,174 | $123 | 2.5% | 12 | 7.8 | 1.53× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 1,389 | $78.70 | 2.6% | 20 | 12.3 | 1.63× |
| [XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-elegant-vines-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $47.15 | 2.5% | 23 | 20.5 | 1.12× |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 826 | $46.73 | 2.5% | 13 | 20.6 | 0.63× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 775 | $43.98 | 2.6% | 24 | 22.0 | 1.09× |
| [FAMAS \| Meltdown (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-meltdown-minimal-wear) | 1 in 735 | $41.63 | 2.5% | 23 | 23.2 | 0.99× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-well-worn) | 1 in 461 | $26.09 | 2.5% | 46 | 37.0 | 1.24× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 446 | $25.34 | 2.6% | 36 | 38.2 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 1 in 224 | $24.13 | 4.8% | 85 | 76.0 | 1.12× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 142 | $15.25 | 4.8% | 129 | 120.2 | 1.07× |
| [P90 \| Attack Vector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $7.82 | 4.8% | 246 | 234.4 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $7.40 | 4.8% | 236 | 247.7 | 0.95× |
| [Galil AR \| Dusk Ruins (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-dusk-ruins-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $6.51 | 4.8% | 264 | 281.4 | 0.94× |
| [Tec-9 \| Orange Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-orange-murano-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $6.30 | 4.8% | 291 | 290.8 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $6.23 | 4.8% | 270 | 294.2 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $4.96 | 4.8% | 377 | 369.4 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $4.94 | 4.2% | 335 | 323.5 | 1.04× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $4.79 | 4.2% | 334 | 333.6 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $4.18 | 4.2% | 381 | 382.3 | 1.00× |
| [MP9 \| Old Roots (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-old-roots-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $3.99 | 4.2% | 448 | 400.6 | 1.12× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $2.97 | 4.2% | 522 | 538.1 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Grassland (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $2.93 | 4.2% | 549 | 545.5 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $2.82 | 4.2% | 533 | 566.6 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $2.65 | 4.2% | 595 | 603.1 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-arsenic-spill-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $0.49 | 0.8% | 590 | 597.3 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Teal Graf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-teal-graf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $0.26 | 0.8% | 1,106 | 1125.4 | 0.98× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $0.25 | 0.8% | 1,211 | 1170.4 | 1.03× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.24 | 0.8% | 1,196 | 1219.3 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Marsh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.21 | 0.8% | 1,377 | 1393.3 | 0.99× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-traitor-battle-scarred) | 33.7% | $0.05 | 0.8% | 5,772 | 5748.3 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635568`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-well-worn) [joincik420](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/joincik420) $2.50 $307 122.8x 2026-11-04 19:59 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $2.50 $307 122.8x 2026-11-04 17:16 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635568)

[P90 | Attack Vector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-battle-scarred) [Zagniewany](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Zagniewany) $2.50 $7.82 3.13x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[P90 | Attack Vector (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-battle-scarred) [ŁO BABEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%C5%81O%20BABEN) $2.50 $7.82 3.13x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-battle-scarred) [Yar0](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Yar0) $2.50 $0.25 0.10x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-factory-new) [KubiXX SKINS.ARMY](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KubiXX%20SKINS.ARMY) $2.50 $0.24 0.10x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[P2000 | Marsh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-battle-scarred) [Oafek skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Oafek%20skins.army) $2.50 $0.21 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[P250 | Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) [ŁO BABEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%C5%81O%20BABEN) $2.50 $4.18 1.67x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[P2000 | Marsh (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-marsh-battle-scarred) [Voltimus](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Voltimus) $2.50 $0.21 0.08x 2026-11-11 19:08 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-traitor-battle-scarred) [Książe Nieporządas](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Ksi%C4%85%C5%BCe%20Nieporz%C4%85das) $2.50 $0.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:08 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-traitor-battle-scarred) [DziK.](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DziK.) $2.50 $0.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:08 UTC

[MP9 | Old Roots (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-old-roots-battle-scarred) [ŁO BABEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%C5%81O%20BABEN) $2.50 $3.99 1.60x 2026-11-11 19:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.50 | 88.85% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% red 0.0% #ffd700 0.1% violet 3.4% restricted 0.1% classified 4.0% mil spec 0.2% #87c7ff 2.8% #4b69ff 15.8% #8847ff 4.5% industrial 10.6% pink 1.9% Legendary 2.0% milspec 5.7% Industrial Grade 3.2% blue 3.5% #5e98d9 41.9% best hit $307 (122.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.85 on average: an expected loss of $11.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt