---
title: "Spore Tracker case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Spore Tracker ($12.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.87% from 33 items with odds, observed 86.59% over 2,191 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635570
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:15Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Spore Tracker](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635570)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Spore Tracker

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635570?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635570?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635570) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635570?window=all)

Price · $12.00

Advertised RTP · 88.87% · EV $10.66 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.59% · 2,191 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 107.37% ±31.87 280 openings

7 days · 85.02% ±12.87 1,717 openings

30 days · 86.59% ±11.39 2,191 openings

since tracking started · 86.59% ±11.39 2,191 openings

71.5% 105.7% 140.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635570?window=24h) | 280 | 107.37% ±31.9 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635570?window=7d) | 1,717 | 85.02% ±12.9 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635570) | 2,191 | 86.59% ±11.4 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635570?window=all) | 2,191 | 86.59% ±11.4 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,207 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $1,035 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-autoexec-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $940 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,571 | $644 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 1,299 | $235 | 1.7% | 4 | 1.7 | 2.35× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,020 | $185 | 1.7% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-well-worn) | 1 in 990 | $180 | 1.7% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.90× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) | 1 in 952 | $174 | 1.7% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-factory-new) | 1 in 926 | $168 | 1.7% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.84× |
| [AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-empress-field-tested) | 1 in 820 | $149 | 1.7% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 714 | $130 | 1.7% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.29× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $122 | 1.7% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.30× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 166 | $110 | 6.2% | 15 | 13.3 | 1.13× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 159 | $105 | 6.2% | 19 | 13.9 | 1.37× |
| [SG 553 \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 141 | $93.19 | 6.2% | 17 | 15.7 | 1.08× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 140 | $92.95 | 6.2% | 14 | 15.7 | 0.89× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 140 | $92.89 | 6.2% | 20 | 15.7 | 1.27× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $52.14 | 6.2% | 31 | 28.1 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $38.85 | 6.2% | 45 | 37.6 | 1.20× |
| [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $24.28 | 6.2% | 48 | 60.2 | 0.80× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $23.09 | 3.8% | 33 | 38.2 | 0.86× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $22.10 | 3.8% | 43 | 39.9 | 1.08× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $22.08 | 3.8% | 47 | 40.0 | 1.18× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $17.11 | 3.8% | 63 | 51.6 | 1.22× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $15.50 | 3.8% | 45 | 57.0 | 0.79× |
| [SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $13.28 | 3.8% | 58 | 66.5 | 0.87× |
| [Nova \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $12.84 | 3.8% | 56 | 68.7 | 0.81× |
| [P90 \| Attack Vector (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $12.60 | 3.8% | 58 | 70.1 | 0.83× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.83 | 0.3% | 81 | 73.1 | 1.11× |
| [MAG-7 \| Sonar (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-sonar-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.68 | 0.3% | 72 | 89.3 | 0.81× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $0.50 | 0.3% | 113 | 121.4 | 0.93× |
| [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.31 | 0.3% | 188 | 195.8 | 0.96× |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-battle-scarred) | 14.5% | $0.19 | 0.3% | 338 | 319.4 | 1.06× |
| [P90 \| Straight Dimes (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-straight-dimes-field-tested) | 34.2% | $0.08 | 0.3% | 784 | 754.4 | 1.04× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635570`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635570)

[XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.00 $0.19 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Demolition (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-demolition-field-tested) Hidden $12.00 $23.09 1.92x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.00 $0.19 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[P2000 | Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) [Speedy Gonzalez](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Speedy%20Gonzalez) $12.00 $22.10 1.84x 2026-11-11 19:09 UTC

[SG 553 | Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hypnotic-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.00 $93.19 7.77x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[AWP | Crakow! (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.00 $22.08 1.84x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[P90 | Straight Dimes (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-straight-dimes-field-tested) [Eck0](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Eck0) $12.00 $0.08 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:07 UTC

[Galil AR | O-Ranger (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-factory-new) Hidden $12.00 $0.31 0.03x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-well-worn) Hidden $12.00 $0.50 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC

[M4A4 | Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) Hidden $12.00 $15.50 1.29x 2026-11-11 18:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $12.00 | 88.87% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 5.5% covert 1.0% Ancient 1.3% covert knife 0.0% epic 0.1% red 1.8% classified 5.4% extraordinary 0.1% #ffd700 1.3% #8847ff 0.7% restricted 7.6% uncommon 5.0% pink 2.3% mil spec 3.0% Rare 3.3% blue 4.0% blueLight 8.9% #5e98d9 14.5% industrial 34.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.87 on average: an expected loss of $11.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt