---
title: "Swamp Forager case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Swamp Forager ($21.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.77% from 33 items with odds, observed 85.65% over 1,365 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635571
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Swamp Forager](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635571)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Swamp Forager

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635571?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635571?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635571) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635571?window=all)

Price · $21.00

Advertised RTP · 88.77% · EV $18.64 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.65% · 1,365 openings, odds method

Variance · 6.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 22 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 71.15% ±45.67 126 openings

7 days · 82.45% ±15.52 1,091 openings

30 days · 85.65% ±13.87 1,365 openings

since tracking started · 85.65% ±13.87 1,365 openings

25.0% 71.3% 117.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635571?window=24h) | 126 | 71.15% ±45.7 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635571?window=7d) | 1,091 | 82.45% ±15.5 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635571) | 1,365 | 85.65% ±13.9 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635571?window=all) | 1,365 | 85.65% ±13.9 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,369 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 5,556 | $2,001 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) | 1 in 1,515 | $551 | 2.0% | 3 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 1,389 | $503 | 1.9% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,370 | $501 | 2.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-factory-new) | 1 in 1,299 | $471 | 1.9% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 1,163 | $422 | 1.9% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.55× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,075 | $391 | 2.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 671 | $244 | 1.9% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.47× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 625 | $227 | 1.9% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 613 | $224 | 2.0% | 6 | 2.2 | 2.69× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 585 | $212 | 1.9% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.85× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 182 | $205 | 6.0% | 9 | 7.5 | 1.20× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $173 | 6.0% | 4 | 8.9 | 0.45× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-well-worn) | 1 in 149 | $168 | 6.0% | 4 | 9.2 | 0.44× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $161 | 6.0% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-factory-new) | 1 in 110 | $124 | 6.0% | 13 | 12.4 | 1.05× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $80.91 | 6.0% | 19 | 19.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $54.84 | 6.0% | 32 | 28.1 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $42.11 | 6.0% | 39 | 36.6 | 1.07× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $40.61 | 3.7% | 28 | 23.2 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $30.01 | 3.7% | 33 | 31.4 | 1.05× |
| [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $29.66 | 3.7% | 26 | 31.7 | 0.82× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $25.55 | 3.7% | 35 | 36.8 | 0.95× |
| [M249 \| Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $23.33 | 3.7% | 39 | 40.3 | 0.97× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night Heist (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-heist-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $22.23 | 3.7% | 34 | 42.3 | 0.80× |
| [Officer Jacques Beltram \| Gendarmerie Nationale agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/officer-jacques-beltram-gendarmerie-nationale) | 1 in 31 | $21.30 | 3.7% | 47 | 44.2 | 1.06× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Slalom (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-slalom-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $21.29 | 3.7% | 37 | 44.2 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $0.93 | 0.1% | 35 | 36.6 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.89 | 0.1% | 32 | 38.2 | 0.84× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $0.85 | 0.1% | 38 | 40.0 | 0.95× |
| [P2000 \| Sure Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-well-worn) | 13.1% | $0.19 | 0.1% | 219 | 178.9 | 1.22× |
| [Negev \| Ultralight (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-field-tested) | 19.1% | $0.13 | 0.1% | 266 | 261.5 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Perimeter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-perimeter-field-tested) | 27.2% | $0.09 | 0.1% | 351 | 372.9 | 0.94× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635571`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) Hidden $21.00 $551 26.23x 2026-11-10 22:34 UTC

[AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) Hidden $21.00 $551 26.23x 2026-11-09 12:59 UTC

[AK-47 | B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) Hidden $21.00 $551 26.23x 2026-11-07 00:40 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635571)

[P2000 | Sure Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-well-worn) Hidden $21.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC

[M249 | Shipping Forecast (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-shipping-forecast-factory-new) Hidden $21.00 $23.33 1.11x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC

[Tec-9 | Perimeter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-perimeter-field-tested) [Lipski](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Lipski) $21.00 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:31 UTC

[Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-field-tested) Hidden $21.00 $0.13 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[Tec-9 | Perimeter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-perimeter-field-tested) Hidden $21.00 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[P2000 | Sure Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-well-worn) [Eck0](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Eck0) $21.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC

[Tec-9 | Perimeter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-perimeter-field-tested) [Grubiii](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Grubiii) $21.00 $0.09 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC

[M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-well-worn) [ΩM3GA | Senior Koras](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%CE%A9M3GA%20%7C%20Senior%20Koras) $21.00 $54.84 2.61x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC

[P2000 | Sure Grip (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-sure-grip-well-worn) [⋆Brazzers⋆ |Johnny Sins](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%8B%86Brazzers%E2%8B%86%20%7CJohnny%20Sins) $21.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC

[Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-field-tested) Hidden $21.00 $0.13 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $21.00 | 88.77% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 19.1% legendary 0.1% covert 3.3% classified 3.4% restricted 3.3% extraordinary 0.7% red 0.7% Covert 2.1% pink 4.4% #87c7ff 5.3% Mil Spec Grade 2.7% blue 3.1% violet 5.9% Mythical 2.8% Rare 2.9% milspec 13.1% industrial 27.2% best hit $551 (26.23x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.77 on average: an expected loss of $11.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt