---
title: "Golden Woods case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Golden Woods ($3.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.77% from 32 items with odds, observed 85.80% over 6,364 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635582
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Golden Woods](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635582)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Golden Woods

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635582?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635582?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635582) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635582?window=all)

Price · $3.00

Advertised RTP · 88.77% · EV $2.66 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.80% · 6,364 openings, odds method

Variance · 13.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 24 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 82.15% ±11.39 4,124 openings

30 days · 85.80% ±9.17 6,364 openings

since tracking started · 85.80% ±9.17 6,364 openings

70.0% 82.7% 95.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635582?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635582?window=7d) | 4,124 | 82.15% ±11.4 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635582) | 6,364 | 85.80% ±9.17 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635582?window=all) | 6,364 | 85.80% ±9.17 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,390 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 3,571 | $275 | 2.9% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.12× |
| [MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,125 | $248 | 3.0% | 4 | 2.0 | 1.96× |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 3,125 | $247 | 3.0% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-field-tested) | 1 in 2,381 | $184 | 2.9% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.12× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,083 | $163 | 2.9% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.63× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-well-worn) | 1 in 1,923 | $149 | 2.9% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,075 | $83.80 | 2.9% | 2 | 5.9 | 0.34× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 535 | $41.88 | 2.9% | 13 | 11.9 | 1.09× |
| [Little Kev \| The Professionals agent · exceptional](https://gambatracker.com/items/little-kev-the-professionals) | 1 in 461 | $36.13 | 2.9% | 12 | 13.9 | 0.87× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 254 | $29.61 | 4.4% | 19 | 25.2 | 0.75× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-factory-new) | 1 in 231 | $27.01 | 4.4% | 27 | 27.6 | 0.98× |
| [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 216 | $25.23 | 4.4% | 31 | 29.5 | 1.05× |
| [SSG 08 \| Tropical Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-tropical-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 158 | $18.39 | 4.4% | 39 | 40.5 | 0.96× |
| [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-minimal-wear) | 1 in 135 | $15.71 | 4.4% | 40 | 47.5 | 0.84× |
| [Aspirant \| Gendarmerie Nationale agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/aspirant-gendarmerie-nationale) | 1 in 123 | $14.29 | 4.4% | 57 | 52.1 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $8.39 | 4.4% | 84 | 88.9 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $6.30 | 4.4% | 126 | 118.3 | 1.06× |
| [Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-snek-9-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $6.30 | 4.4% | 112 | 118.3 | 0.95× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-well-worn) | 1 in 59 | $5.94 | 3.8% | 102 | 108.9 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $5.86 | 3.8% | 120 | 110.4 | 1.09× |
| [P250 \| Lotus Imprint (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-lotus-imprint-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $4.09 | 3.8% | 174 | 158.2 | 1.10× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $3.49 | 3.8% | 180 | 185.4 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $3.25 | 3.8% | 194 | 199.0 | 0.97× |
| [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $3.11 | 3.8% | 187 | 208.1 | 0.90× |
| [Galil AR \| Akoben (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-akoben-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $3.00 | 3.8% | 211 | 215.7 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $2.97 | 3.8% | 203 | 217.8 | 0.93× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $0.54 | 0.6% | 183 | 195.3 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.40 | 0.6% | 289 | 263.6 | 1.10× |
| [UMP-45 \| Fragment (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.25 | 0.6% | 426 | 421.7 | 1.01× |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.21 | 0.6% | 491 | 502.1 | 0.98× |
| [Negev \| Wall Bang (Field-Tested) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-wall-bang-field-tested) | 18.3% | $0.09 | 0.6% | 1,151 | 1171.5 | 0.98× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Mystic Conjunction (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-mystic-conjunction-well-worn) | 28.8% | $0.06 | 0.6% | 1,902 | 1837.6 | 1.04× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635582`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) Hidden $3.00 $275 91.56x 2026-11-07 22:41 UTC

[★ Stiletto Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) Hidden $3.00 $275 91.56x 2026-11-06 00:33 UTC

[MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.00 $248 82.73x 2026-11-06 15:49 UTC

[MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.00 $248 82.73x 2026-11-04 10:10 UTC

[MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-battle-scarred) [NA](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/NA) $3.00 $248 82.73x 2026-11-03 18:14 UTC

[MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-hot-snakes-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.00 $248 82.73x 2026-11-03 14:41 UTC

[P90 | Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-well-worn) Hidden $3.00 $247 82.40x 2026-11-03 08:40 UTC

[MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $184 61.48x 2026-11-06 12:05 UTC

[MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $184 61.48x 2026-11-03 23:39 UTC

[MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-field-tested) [Teuch](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Teuch) $3.00 $184 61.48x 2026-11-03 17:55 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635582)

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $3.00 $0.54 0.18x 2026-11-07 23:08 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) [★ HALINA BICEP$ ★](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%98%85%20HALINA%20BICEP%24%20%E2%98%85) $3.00 $0.40 0.13x 2026-11-07 23:08 UTC

[P250 | Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) [67](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/67) $3.00 $3.25 1.08x 2026-11-07 23:08 UTC

[Negev | Sour Grapes (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-well-worn) [Gorzi](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Gorzi) $3.00 $0.21 0.07x 2026-11-07 23:02 UTC

[G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-field-tested) [Norbi Jumbo skins](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Norbi%20Jumbo%20skins) $3.00 $25.23 8.41x 2026-11-07 23:02 UTC

[G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-field-tested) [NIEZNAJOMY](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/NIEZNAJOMY) $3.00 $25.23 8.41x 2026-11-07 23:02 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-mystic-conjunction-well-worn) [☆one☆](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%98%86one%E2%98%86) $3.00 $0.06 0.02x 2026-11-07 23:00 UTC

[UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fragment-minimal-wear) [modykot](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/modykot) $3.00 $0.25 0.08x 2026-11-07 23:00 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Mystic Conjunction (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-mystic-conjunction-well-worn) [Norbi Jumbo skins](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Norbi%20Jumbo%20skins) $3.00 $0.06 0.02x 2026-11-07 22:58 UTC

[Tec-9 | Remote Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-battle-scarred) [SZYM](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SZYM) $3.00 $3.49 1.16x 2026-11-07 22:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $3.00 | 88.77% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% #d32ee6 0.0% pink 1.8% Ancient 0.0% sunny 0.1% red 0.1% exceptional 0.2% classified 3.3% violet 4.2% industrial 1.1% blue 0.8% #4b69ff 8.0% mil spec 16.2% restricted 5.9% milspec 3.1% #5e98d9 36.6% blueLight 18.3% best hit $275 (91.56x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.77 on average: an expected loss of $11.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt