---
title: "Burning Ember case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Burning Ember ($8.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.82% from 32 items with odds, observed 82.65% over 2,602 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635583
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:31Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Burning Ember](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635583)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Burning Ember

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635583?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635583?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635583) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635583?window=all)

Price · $8.00

Advertised RTP · 88.82% · EV $7.11 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.65% · 2,602 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 80.83% ±13.14 1,643 openings

30 days · 82.65% ±10.44 2,602 openings

since tracking started · 82.65% ±10.44 2,602 openings

67.0% 80.8% 94.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635583?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635583?window=7d) | 1,643 | 80.83% ±13.1 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635583) | 2,602 | 82.65% ±10.4 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635583?window=all) | 2,602 | 82.65% ±10.4 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,606 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,348 | $713 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-field-tested) | 1 in 2,857 | $473 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 1,471 | $242 | 2.3% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,266 | $208 | 2.3% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 1,124 | $184 | 2.3% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-factory-new) | 1 in 1,064 | $173 | 2.3% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 980 | $160 | 2.3% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.38× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-factory-new) | 1 in 559 | $91.54 | 2.3% | 5 | 4.7 | 1.07× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-needle-point-minimal-wear) | 1 in 498 | $81.49 | 2.3% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.76× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 246 | $78.61 | 4.5% | 13 | 10.6 | 1.23× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 229 | $73.29 | 4.5% | 11 | 11.4 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 129 | $41.34 | 4.5% | 20 | 20.1 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $34.41 | 4.5% | 27 | 24.2 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 90 | $28.61 | 4.5% | 29 | 29.1 | 1.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $28.14 | 4.5% | 27 | 29.6 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $20.30 | 4.5% | 40 | 41.0 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $17.38 | 4.5% | 45 | 47.9 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $16.03 | 4.5% | 57 | 52.0 | 1.10× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $15.89 | 4.6% | 42 | 53.5 | 0.79× |
| [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $15.48 | 4.6% | 51 | 54.9 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $14.90 | 4.6% | 71 | 57.1 | 1.24× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $14.35 | 4.6% | 62 | 59.3 | 1.05× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $13.31 | 4.6% | 56 | 63.9 | 0.88× |
| [Nova \| Green Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-green-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $12.06 | 4.6% | 76 | 70.5 | 1.08× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $8.00 | 4.6% | 115 | 106.3 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $7.96 | 4.6% | 100 | 106.8 | 0.94× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $0.71 | 0.3% | 80 | 87.5 | 0.91× |
| [MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-button-masher-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.56 | 0.3% | 94 | 110.9 | 0.85× |
| [XM1014 \| CaliCamo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-calicamo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $0.25 | 0.3% | 231 | 248.4 | 0.93× |
| [UMP-45 \| Motorized (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $0.24 | 0.3% | 267 | 258.8 | 1.03× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $0.24 | 0.3% | 256 | 258.8 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-steel-sentinel-field-tested) | 30.0% | $0.08 | 0.3% | 819 | 780.8 | 1.05× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635583`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635583)

[XM1014 | CaliCamo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-calicamo-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.00 $0.25 0.03x 2026-11-07 23:06 UTC

[USP-S | Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.00 $34.41 4.30x 2026-11-07 23:06 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Grotto (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-field-tested) [gmvroo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/gmvroo) $8.00 $0.71 0.09x 2026-11-07 23:06 UTC

[AWP | Duality (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-factory-new) Hidden $8.00 $14.90 1.86x 2026-11-07 22:47 UTC

[Glock-18 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) [andrzej terejko](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/andrzej%20terejko) $8.00 $17.38 2.17x 2026-11-07 22:47 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Grotto (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-field-tested) [Señor](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Se%C3%B1or) $8.00 $0.71 0.09x 2026-11-07 22:47 UTC

[AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-steel-sentinel-field-tested) Hidden $8.00 $0.08 0.01x 2026-11-07 22:39 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Fragments (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.00 $0.24 0.03x 2026-11-07 22:39 UTC

[UMP-45 | Motorized (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-motorized-well-worn) [Jacoob34skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jacoob34skins.army) $8.00 $0.24 0.03x 2026-11-07 22:39 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Fragments (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.00 $0.24 0.03x 2026-11-07 22:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $8.00 | 88.82% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 9.5% covert 0.9% classified 10.0% Ancient 0.1% extraordinary 0.3% restricted 1.0% rare 0.1% #ffd700 0.4% gold 0.4% industrial 1.1% mil spec 6.8% Mythical 5.9% violet 2.0% pink 2.2% #d32ee6 2.5% Industrial Grade 2.7% #8847ff 4.3% #4b69ff 19.9% #5e98d9 30.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.82 on average: an expected loss of $11.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt