---
title: "Autumn Tales case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Autumn Tales ($17.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.82% from 34 items with odds, observed 87.63% over 1,111 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635584
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Autumn Tales](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635584)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Autumn Tales

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635584?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635584?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635584) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635584?window=all)

Price · $17.00

Advertised RTP · 88.82% · EV $15.10 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.63% · 1,111 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 18 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 65.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 90.90% ±21.94 674 openings

30 days · 87.63% ±17.09 1,111 openings

since tracking started · 87.63% ±17.09 1,111 openings

68.5% 91.0% 113.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635584?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635584?window=7d) | 674 | 90.90% ±21.9 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635584) | 1,111 | 87.63% ±17.1 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635584?window=all) | 1,111 | 87.63% ±17.1 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,113 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,226 | $1,461 | 3.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,587 | $723 | 3.0% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,449 | $658 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 1,042 | $472 | 3.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 690 | $314 | 3.0% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 599 | $273 | 3.0% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.08× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 565 | $257 | 3.0% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.02× |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 493 | $223 | 3.0% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-well-worn) | 1 in 385 | $175 | 3.0% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 380 | $173 | 3.0% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.02× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 377 | $171 | 3.0% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.02× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 324 | $165 | 3.4% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Flowers (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-flowers-battle-scarred) | 1 in 291 | $149 | 3.4% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.31× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $58.50 | 3.4% | 11 | 9.7 | 1.13× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 91 | $46.29 | 3.4% | 12 | 12.3 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-battle-scarred) | 1 in 88 | $44.86 | 3.4% | 8 | 12.7 | 0.63× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 85 | $43.35 | 3.4% | 17 | 13.1 | 1.30× |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-factory-new) | 1 in 75 | $38.43 | 3.4% | 12 | 14.8 | 0.81× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $37.29 | 3.4% | 14 | 15.3 | 0.92× |
| [AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $35.11 | 3.4% | 20 | 16.2 | 1.23× |
| ['Medium Rare' Crasswater \| Guerrilla Warfare agent · Master](https://gambatracker.com/items/medium-rare-crasswater-guerrilla-warfare) | 1 in 49 | $32.55 | 4.4% | 22 | 22.9 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $31.61 | 4.4% | 23 | 23.6 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $25.92 | 4.4% | 16 | 28.7 | 0.56× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $24.66 | 4.4% | 34 | 30.2 | 1.13× |
| [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $21.96 | 4.4% | 40 | 33.9 | 1.18× |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $19.78 | 4.4% | 30 | 37.6 | 0.80× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $17.21 | 4.4% | 43 | 43.3 | 0.99× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $17.20 | 4.4% | 57 | 43.3 | 1.32× |
| [Tec-9 \| Sultan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-sultan-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $0.81 | 0.2% | 28 | 34.4 | 0.81× |
| [SSG 08 \| Zeno (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $0.74 | 0.2% | 40 | 37.6 | 1.06× |
| [UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.58 | 0.2% | 45 | 48.0 | 0.94× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-well-worn) | 1 in 10 | $0.26 | 0.2% | 100 | 107.0 | 0.93× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-well-worn) | 13.2% | $0.19 | 0.2% | 160 | 146.4 | 1.09× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-field-tested) | 31.9% | $0.08 | 0.2% | 356 | 355.5 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635584`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) Hidden $17.00 $1,461 85.95x 2026-11-06 15:40 UTC

[M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.00 $723 42.53x 2026-11-04 19:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635584)

[SCAR-20 | Fragments (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-well-worn) Hidden $17.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-07 23:05 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-factory-new) Hidden $17.00 $17.20 1.01x 2026-11-07 23:05 UTC

[Nova | Turquoise Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-field-tested) [G-E-I-T](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/G-E-I-T) $17.00 $0.08 0.00x 2026-11-07 23:05 UTC

[Nova | Turquoise Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-field-tested) [toNy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/toNy) $17.00 $0.08 0.00x 2026-11-07 23:02 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Fragments (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-well-worn) [G-E-I-T](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/G-E-I-T) $17.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-07 23:02 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Stained (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-stained-factory-new) Hidden $17.00 $171 10.08x 2026-11-07 22:45 UTC

[Nova | Turquoise Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-field-tested) [Kimchi](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kimchi) $17.00 $0.08 0.00x 2026-11-07 22:45 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Fragments (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-well-worn) [Mlotek skins.army CS2.ME SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Mlotek%20skins.army%20CS2.ME%20SKINS) $17.00 $0.19 0.01x 2026-11-07 22:34 UTC

[XM1014 | Bone Machine (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-factory-new) [MarcAmi005](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MarcAmi005) $17.00 $21.96 1.29x 2026-11-07 22:34 UTC

[Nova | Turquoise Pour (Field-Tested) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-field-tested) Hidden $17.00 $0.08 0.00x 2026-11-07 22:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $17.00 | 88.82% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.6% extraordinary 0.1% restricted 1.6% red 2.8% Immortal 0.3% covert knife 0.3% rare 1.7% #8847ff 1.1% pink 4.2% Master 2.1% classified 6.0% blue 12.2% mil spec 3.0% #87c7ff 3.4% light blue 3.9% milspec 3.1% #4b69ff 3.4% violet 4.3% Mil Spec Grade 13.2% #5e98d9 31.9% best hit $1,461 (85.95x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.82 on average: an expected loss of $11.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt