---
title: "Chicken Hug case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Chicken Hug ($2.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.88% from 38 items with odds, observed 89.25% over 18.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635599
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Chicken Hug](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635599)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Chicken Hug

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635599?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635599?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635599) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635599?window=all)

Price · $2.50

Advertised RTP · 88.88% · EV $2.22 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.25% · 18.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 10.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.02% ±13.25 2,252 openings

7 days · 90.97% ±5.07 15.4K openings

30 days · 89.25% ±4.57 18.9K openings

since tracking started · 89.25% ±4.57 18.9K openings

73.0% 87.0% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635599?window=24h) | 2,252 | 87.02% ±13.3 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635599?window=7d) | 15.4K | 90.97% ±5.07 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635599) | 18.9K | 89.25% ±4.57 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635599?window=all) | 18.9K | 89.25% ±4.57 | +0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,143 | $313 | 2.0% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.75× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 5,263 | $228 | 1.9% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 4,545 | $198 | 2.0% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.20× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,448 | $152 | 2.0% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.09× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 2,273 | $101 | 2.0% | 13 | 8.4 | 1.55× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,818 | $80.83 | 2.0% | 10 | 10.5 | 0.96× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,471 | $65.77 | 2.0% | 14 | 12.9 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-factory-new) | 1 in 1,471 | $65.20 | 2.0% | 16 | 12.9 | 1.24× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,299 | $57.38 | 2.0% | 13 | 14.6 | 0.89× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $23.41 | 3.7% | 65 | 66.5 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 237 | $19.39 | 3.7% | 89 | 80.2 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 208 | $17.02 | 3.7% | 83 | 91.4 | 0.91× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 188 | $15.37 | 3.7% | 79 | 101.1 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $13.64 | 3.7% | 115 | 114.0 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-well-worn) | 1 in 133 | $10.87 | 3.7% | 127 | 143.1 | 0.89× |
| [Sticker \| Poorly Drawn Chicken (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-poorly-drawn-chicken-holo) | 1 in 111 | $9.05 | 3.7% | 159 | 171.8 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $9.01 | 3.7% | 174 | 172.5 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Big Clucks (Foil) sticker · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-big-clucks-foil) | 1 in 109 | $8.94 | 3.7% | 194 | 173.9 | 1.12× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Ocular (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-ocular-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $8.20 | 3.7% | 189 | 189.6 | 1.00× |
| [Sticker \| Fowl Play (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fowl-play-holo) | 1 in 78 | $6.35 | 3.7% | 250 | 244.7 | 1.02× |
| [XM1014 \| Entombed (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-entombed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $4.58 | 4.5% | 423 | 417.6 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $3.80 | 4.5% | 503 | 503.3 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $3.48 | 4.5% | 526 | 549.7 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32 | $3.23 | 4.5% | 582 | 592.3 | 0.98× |
| [MP9 \| Spy Prototype (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-spy-prototype-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $2.90 | 4.5% | 654 | 659.5 | 0.99× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $2.73 | 4.5% | 719 | 700.6 | 1.03× |
| [Patch \| Chicken Lover patch · Remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-chicken-lover) | 1 in 88 | $2.34 | 1.2% | 255 | 216.6 | 1.18× |
| [Sticker \| Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) | 1 in 71 | $1.89 | 1.2% | 279 | 268.1 | 1.04× |
| [Sticker \| SAS Chicken sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sas-chicken) | 1 in 45 | $1.21 | 1.2% | 387 | 418.8 | 0.92× |
| [Sticker \| Chicken Lover sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-lover) | 1 in 42 | $1.12 | 1.2% | 430 | 452.4 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Cyber Chicken (Holo) sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cyber-chicken-holo) | 1 in 36 | $0.95 | 1.2% | 522 | 533.4 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Chicken Strike sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-strike) | 1 in 36 | $0.95 | 1.2% | 565 | 533.4 | 1.06× |
| [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 29 | $0.78 | 1.2% | 659 | 649.6 | 1.01× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.32 | 1.2% | 1,555 | 1583.4 | 0.98× |
| [Sticker \| Heads Up sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-heads-up) | 1 in 12 | $0.32 | 1.2% | 1,619 | 1583.4 | 1.02× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) | 10.3% | $0.26 | 1.2% | 1,991 | 1948.7 | 1.02× |
| [Sticker \| This Is Fine (Chicken) sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-chicken) | 14.0% | $0.19 | 1.2% | 2,679 | 2666.8 | 1.00× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-minimal-wear) | 16.3% | $0.17 | 1.2% | 3,047 | 3099.4 | 0.98× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635599`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) [Czaro skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Czaro%20skins.army) $2.50 $313 125.2x 2026-11-10 07:53 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.50 $313 125.2x 2026-11-08 14:26 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $2.50 $228 91.17x 2026-11-08 16:17 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [-siii-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/-siii-) $2.50 $228 91.17x 2026-11-08 11:02 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Steryd3](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Steryd3) $2.50 $228 91.17x 2026-11-06 15:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) Hidden $2.50 $198 79.22x 2026-11-11 15:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) [Pasta skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Pasta%20skins.army) $2.50 $198 79.22x 2026-11-09 17:15 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) Hidden $2.50 $198 79.22x 2026-11-07 08:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) Hidden $2.50 $198 79.22x 2026-11-05 08:14 UTC

[StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) Hidden $2.50 $198 79.22x 2026-11-04 22:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635599)

[Sticker | Chicken Lover sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-lover) Hidden $2.50 $1.12 0.45x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[Sticker | This Is Fine (Chicken) sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-this-is-fine-chicken) Hidden $2.50 $0.19 0.08x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[MP9 | Spy Prototype (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-spy-prototype-factory-new) [Jeavsky](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jeavsky) $2.50 $2.90 1.16x 2026-11-11 18:29 UTC

[Sticker | Chicken of the Sky sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-of-the-sky) Hidden $2.50 $1.89 0.76x 2026-11-11 18:28 UTC

[Sticker | Poorly Drawn Chicken (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-poorly-drawn-chicken-holo) Hidden $2.50 $9.05 3.62x 2026-11-11 18:28 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-minimal-wear) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $2.50 $0.17 0.07x 2026-11-11 18:28 UTC

[Sticker | Chicken Strike sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chicken-strike) [djhazel](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/djhazel) $2.50 $0.95 0.38x 2026-11-11 18:28 UTC

[AWP | Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) Hidden $2.50 $3.80 1.52x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC

[AWP | Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) [smerfik](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/smerfik) $2.50 $3.80 1.52x 2026-11-11 18:26 UTC

[Sticker | Heads Up sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-heads-up) [Jabari Tahir♛ -C13\_r|\_|ch4M-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jabari%20Tahir%E2%99%9B%20-C13_r%7C_%7Cch4M-) $2.50 $0.32 0.13x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $2.50 | 88.88% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 0.0% covert 0.1% covert knife 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% rare 0.1% classified 1.8% restricted 7.0% #d32ee6 0.5% Mythical 0.6% violet 3.6% #8847ff 6.3% Legendary 3.1% pink 2.6% milspec 3.5% Remarkable 1.1% high 3.8% Rare 5.0% uncommon 3.4% #4b69ff 30.7% blue 26.6% best hit $313 (125.2x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.88 on average: an expected loss of $11.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt