---
title: "Toxic Clown case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Toxic Clown ($1.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.93% from 31 items with odds, observed 88.54% over 54K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635601
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Toxic Clown](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635601)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Toxic Clown

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635601?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635601?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635601) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635601?window=all)

Price · $1.50

Advertised RTP · 88.93% · EV $1.33 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.54% · 54K openings, odds method

Variance · 9.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.03% ±6.97 7,288 openings

7 days · 88.78% ±2.86 43.4K openings

30 days · 88.54% ±2.56 54K openings

since tracking started · 88.54% ±2.56 54K openings

84.5% 92.0% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635601?window=24h) | 7,288 | 92.03% ±6.97 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635601?window=7d) | 43.4K | 88.78% ±2.86 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635601) | 54K | 88.54% ±2.56 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635601?window=all) | 54K | 88.54% ±2.56 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 54.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 5,263 | $154 | 2.2% | 8 | 10.3 | 0.78× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 4,762 | $145 | 2.3% | 8 | 11.4 | 0.70× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Eastern Enigma (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-eastern-enigma-factory-new) | 1 in 2,941 | $88.45 | 2.3% | 25 | 18.4 | 1.36× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-factory-new) | 1 in 2,041 | $60.74 | 2.2% | 34 | 26.6 | 1.28× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 1 in 1,099 | $32.91 | 2.2% | 55 | 49.3 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-well-worn) | 1 in 685 | $20.58 | 2.3% | 75 | 79.2 | 0.95× |
| [P90 \| Sunset Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 637 | $19.15 | 2.3% | 79 | 85.1 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-groundwater-field-tested) | 1 in 637 | $19.05 | 2.2% | 92 | 85.1 | 1.08× |
| [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 625 | $18.73 | 2.2% | 79 | 86.8 | 0.91× |
| [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 599 | $18.00 | 2.3% | 85 | 90.6 | 0.94× |
| [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-field-tested) | 1 in 198 | $14.68 | 5.6% | 276 | 273.8 | 1.01× |
| [Prof. Shahmat \| Elite Crew agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/prof-shahmat-elite-crew) | 1 in 118 | $8.74 | 5.6% | 459 | 459.8 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $8.61 | 5.6% | 446 | 466.9 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 116 | $8.60 | 5.6% | 439 | 467.4 | 0.94× |
| [UMP-45 \| Houndstooth (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-houndstooth-well-worn) | 1 in 104 | $7.69 | 5.6% | 520 | 522.7 | 0.99× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-battle-scarred) | 1 in 98 | $7.23 | 5.6% | 579 | 555.8 | 1.04× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $3.98 | 5.6% | 994 | 1009.6 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Tall Grass (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-tall-grass-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $3.33 | 5.6% | 1,213 | 1207.0 | 1.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fizzy-pop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $2.97 | 3.3% | 795 | 808.5 | 0.98× |
| [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $1.85 | 3.3% | 1,248 | 1298.1 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $1.78 | 3.3% | 1,348 | 1349.0 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $1.78 | 3.3% | 1,364 | 1349.0 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 38 | $1.69 | 3.3% | 1,372 | 1420.6 | 0.97× |
| [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $1.64 | 3.3% | 1,461 | 1464.0 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Armor Core (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $1.53 | 3.3% | 1,626 | 1569.2 | 1.04× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.54 | 1.6% | 2,160 | 2192.7 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.40 | 1.6% | 2,892 | 2959.4 | 0.98× |
| [MP5-SD \| Snow Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-snow-splash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.36 | 1.6% | 3,387 | 3288.6 | 1.03× |
| [Negev \| Ultralight (Field-Tested) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-ultralight-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $0.35 | 1.6% | 3,332 | 3382.4 | 0.99× |
| [M4A4 \| Magnesium (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-magnesium-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.34 | 1.6% | 3,539 | 3481.6 | 1.02× |
| [Nova \| Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-battle-scarred) | 44.5% | $0.05 | 1.7% | 24,232 | 24153.2 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635601`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $1.50 $154 102.6x 2026-11-11 05:27 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $1.50 $154 102.6x 2026-11-11 04:21 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) [~oWn.](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/~oWn.) $1.50 $154 102.6x 2026-11-10 17:26 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $1.50 $154 102.6x 2026-11-08 09:06 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) Hidden $1.50 $154 102.6x 2026-11-07 21:58 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) [Ymahyl #WarBandits](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Ymahyl%20%23WarBandits) $1.50 $154 102.6x 2026-11-06 19:31 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) [lessiakCASE.GIFT](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/lessiakCASE.GIFT) $1.50 $154 102.6x 2026-11-06 10:43 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) [Płota](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/P%C5%82ota) $1.50 $154 102.6x 2026-11-03 19:52 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) [uziwyjeba](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/uziwyjeba) $1.50 $145 96.63x 2026-11-09 16:26 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) [baskaysys](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/baskaysys) $1.50 $145 96.63x 2026-11-07 14:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635601)

[P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-minimal-wear) [Stone](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Stone) $1.50 $1.64 1.09x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC

[Nova | Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-battle-scarred) [𝒜𝒹1𝓀𝓀♛](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%92%9C%F0%9D%92%B91%F0%9D%93%80%F0%9D%93%80%E2%99%9B) $1.50 $0.05 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-minimal-wear) [Jabari Tahir♛ -C13\_r|\_|ch4M-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jabari%20Tahir%E2%99%9B%20-C13_r%7C_%7Cch4M-) $1.50 $1.78 1.19x 2026-11-11 19:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) [czarnvv SKINS skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/czarnvv%20SKINS%20skins.army) $1.50 $8.60 5.73x 2026-11-11 19:02 UTC

[Nova | Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.50 $0.05 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:02 UTC

[Nova | Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-battle-scarred) [KamilerOO](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KamilerOO) $1.50 $0.05 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:02 UTC

[Nova | Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-battle-scarred) [PizzaSpeck GustoBello](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/PizzaSpeck%20GustoBello) $1.50 $0.05 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:02 UTC

[SSG 08 | Abyss (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.50 $0.40 0.27x 2026-11-11 19:02 UTC

[Nova | Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.50 $0.05 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:02 UTC

[Nova | Turquoise Pour (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-turquoise-pour-battle-scarred) [ProLimonka CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ProLimonka%20CS2.ME) $1.50 $0.05 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $1.50 | 88.93% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 6.2% 3 2.7% sunny 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 4.0% rare 0.0% industrial 0.3% mil spec 7.1% milspec 0.2% pink 0.8% Mythical 0.9% #87c7ff 3.2% #4b69ff 9.8% #8847ff 4.9% violet 9.2% #5e98d9 50.6% best hit $154 (102.6x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.93 on average: an expected loss of $11.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt