---
title: "Cursed Harvest case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Cursed Harvest ($30.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.88% from 34 items with odds, observed 73.42% over 1,126 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635605
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:01Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Cursed Harvest](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635605)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Cursed Harvest

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635605?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635605?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635605) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635605?window=all)

Price · $30.00

Advertised RTP · 88.88% · EV $26.66 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 73.42% · 1,126 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 29 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 135 openings · below min

7 days · 71.57% ±22.97 851 openings

30 days · 73.42% ±19.96 1,126 openings

since tracking started · 73.42% ±19.96 1,126 openings

24.0% 82.3% 140.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635605?window=24h) | 135 | 82.12% ±57.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635605?window=7d) | 851 | 71.57% ±23.0 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635605) | 1,126 | 73.42% ±20.0 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635605?window=all) | 1,126 | 73.42% ±20.0 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,136 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · #ffd700 · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 3,125 | $2,615 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 1,961 | $1,683 | 3.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,852 | $1,579 | 3.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,786 | $1,512 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 1,136 | $964 | 3.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $609 | 3.2% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 617 | $523 | 3.2% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.54× |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 524 | $445 | 3.2% | 5 | 2.2 | 2.30× |
| [AUG \| Midnight Lily (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-midnight-lily-factory-new) | 1 in 503 | $427 | 3.2% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.88× |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 495 | $422 | 3.2% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.31× |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-minimal-wear) | 1 in 373 | $317 | 3.2% | 3 | 3.0 | 0.99× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 263 | $290 | 4.1% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.93× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 234 | $258 | 4.1% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-factory-new) | 1 in 203 | $223 | 4.1% | 2 | 5.6 | 0.36× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 138 | $152 | 4.1% | 7 | 8.2 | 0.85× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 113 | $125 | 4.1% | 6 | 10.0 | 0.60× |
| [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $124 | 4.1% | 6 | 10.1 | 0.59× |
| [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 62 | $67.68 | 4.1% | 13 | 18.5 | 0.70× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $65.00 | 4.1% | 16 | 19.2 | 0.83× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 57 | $63.16 | 4.1% | 14 | 19.8 | 0.71× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 65 | $58.30 | 3.4% | 9 | 17.5 | 0.51× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $50.64 | 3.4% | 17 | 20.2 | 0.84× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $49.09 | 3.4% | 21 | 20.8 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $46.00 | 3.4% | 24 | 22.2 | 1.08× |
| [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $42.93 | 3.4% | 22 | 23.8 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43 | $38.73 | 3.4% | 30 | 26.4 | 1.14× |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $32.71 | 3.4% | 34 | 31.3 | 1.09× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $29.74 | 3.4% | 30 | 34.4 | 0.87× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.88 | 0.1% | 38 | 47.3 | 0.80× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Polymer (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-polymer-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $0.56 | 0.1% | 88 | 74.4 | 1.18× |
| [P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-vent-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.50 | 0.1% | 77 | 83.3 | 0.92× |
| [AUG \| Triqua (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-triqua-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.38 | 0.1% | 120 | 109.6 | 1.09× |
| [Tec-9 \| Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-field-tested) | 10.5% | $0.35 | 0.1% | 129 | 119.0 | 1.08× |
| [MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-well-worn) | 34.2% | $0.11 | 0.1% | 410 | 388.8 | 1.05× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635605`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) Hidden $30.00 $1,683 56.09x 2026-11-08 21:32 UTC

[AWP | Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.00 $1,579 52.63x 2026-11-03 14:28 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) [Jeffrey Epstein skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jeffrey%20Epstein%20skins.army) $30.00 $609 20.28x 2026-11-04 23:25 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.00 $523 17.45x 2026-11-08 03:11 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635605)

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.00 $38.73 1.29x 2026-11-11 20:51 UTC

[Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $30.00 $0.35 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:51 UTC

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-well-worn) [SnajpereczeQ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SnajpereczeQ) $30.00 $0.11 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:51 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) Hidden $30.00 $63.16 2.11x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Polymer (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-polymer-well-worn) Hidden $30.00 $0.56 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-well-worn) [svert ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/svert%20%E3%83%84) $30.00 $0.11 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:45 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $30.00 $290 9.66x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC

[MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-monkeyflage-well-worn) [BoA\_Dupczyciel](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/BoA_Dupczyciel) $30.00 $0.11 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:27 UTC

[Tec-9 | Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-rebel-field-tested) [K4Evo](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/K4Evo) $30.00 $0.35 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Polymer (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-polymer-well-worn) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $30.00 $0.56 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $30.00 | 88.88% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #ffd700 0.0% covert 3.3% classified 1.7% restricted 6.3% covert knife 2.0% Mythical 8.2% Immortal 1.7% extraordinary 1.8% red 2.0% #d32ee6 2.1% Classified 2.8% #4b69ff 63.9% violet 4.2% best hit $1,683 (56.09x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.88 on average: an expected loss of $11.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt