---
title: "Crimson Crypt case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Crimson Crypt ($45.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.85% from 42 items with odds, observed 80.57% over 1,199 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635606
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Crimson Crypt](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635606)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Crimson Crypt

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635606?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635606?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635606) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635606?window=all)

Price · $45.00

Advertised RTP · 88.85% · EV $39.98 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.57% · 1,199 openings, odds method

Variance · 20.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 73 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 143 openings · below min

7 days · 84.27% ±31.45 804 openings

30 days · 80.57% ±25.76 1,199 openings

since tracking started · 80.57% ±25.76 1,199 openings

12.5% 87.8% 163.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635606?window=24h) | 143 | 87.60% ±74.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635606?window=7d) | 804 | 84.27% ±31.5 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635606) | 1,199 | 80.57% ±25.8 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635606?window=all) | 1,199 | 80.57% ±25.8 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,214 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,754 | $3,666 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 1,695 | $3,568 | 5.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,370 | $2,870 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 1,176 | $2,453 | 5.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 962 | $2,016 | 5.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 885 | $1,858 | 5.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 543 | $1,134 | 5.2% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 503 | $1,050 | 5.2% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.07× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 476 | $998 | 5.2% | 6 | 2.5 | 2.35× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 352 | $434 | 3.1% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 201 | $247 | 3.1% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.32× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 180 | $222 | 3.1% | 7 | 6.7 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-well-worn) | 1 in 90 | $111 | 3.1% | 14 | 13.5 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $107 | 3.1% | 16 | 14.0 | 1.15× |
| [AUG \| Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 85 | $105 | 3.1% | 18 | 14.2 | 1.27× |
| [Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-the-kraken-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $105 | 3.1% | 14 | 14.3 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 84 | $104 | 3.1% | 6 | 14.4 | 0.42× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Chocolate Chesterfield (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-chocolate-chesterfield-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $99.23 | 3.1% | 18 | 15.1 | 1.19× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $87.91 | 2.6% | 12 | 14.3 | 0.84× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $75.31 | 2.6% | 17 | 16.7 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $61.90 | 2.6% | 13 | 20.3 | 0.64× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $61.03 | 2.6% | 23 | 20.6 | 1.12× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52 | $54.11 | 2.6% | 25 | 23.2 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $50.71 | 2.6% | 34 | 24.7 | 1.37× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $47.23 | 2.6% | 21 | 26.6 | 0.79× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $46.09 | 2.6% | 30 | 27.2 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) | 1 in 45 | $46.00 | 2.6% | 27 | 27.3 | 0.99× |
| [FAMAS \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-mecha-industries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 571 | $42.88 | 0.2% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.41× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-well-worn) | 1 in 543 | $40.86 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 296 | $22.21 | 0.2% | 0 | 4.1 | 0.00× |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-field-tested) | 1 in 183 | $13.75 | 0.2% | 8 | 6.6 | 1.21× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 150 | $11.26 | 0.2% | 9 | 8.1 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $4.14 | 0.2% | 16 | 22.0 | 0.73× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Meteorite (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-meteorite-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $1.81 | 0.2% | 51 | 50.3 | 1.01× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $1.80 | 0.2% | 57 | 50.6 | 1.13× |
| [MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-magnitude-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $0.96 | 0.1% | 18 | 25.8 | 0.70× |
| [Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.50 | 0.1% | 44 | 49.6 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-oxide-blaze-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.33 | 0.1% | 71 | 75.1 | 0.94× |
| [MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.22 | 0.1% | 115 | 112.7 | 1.02× |
| [MP9 \| Broken Record (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-broken-record-well-worn) | 10.2% | $0.20 | 0.1% | 131 | 124.0 | 1.06× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-well-worn) | 11.3% | $0.18 | 0.1% | 155 | 137.8 | 1.13× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Snake Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-well-worn) | 18.7% | $0.11 | 0.1% | 212 | 227.3 | 0.93× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635606`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) Hidden $45.00 $3,568 79.28x 2026-11-10 15:49 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) Hidden $45.00 $1,858 41.29x 2026-11-07 15:37 UTC

[AWP | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $45.00 $1,134 25.20x 2026-11-02 22:04 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) [Lechu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Lechu) $45.00 $1,050 23.33x 2026-11-09 22:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) Hidden $45.00 $1,050 23.33x 2026-11-09 16:32 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) Hidden $45.00 $1,050 23.33x 2026-11-07 11:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) Hidden $45.00 $1,050 23.33x 2026-11-03 22:43 UTC

[AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) Hidden $45.00 $1,050 23.33x 2026-11-03 13:19 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) [zin](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/zin) $45.00 $998 22.17x 2026-11-11 11:13 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $45.00 $998 22.17x 2026-11-10 22:34 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635606)

[AWP | LongDog (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-well-worn) Hidden $45.00 $46.00 1.02x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-well-worn) Hidden $45.00 $0.18 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-battle-scarred) [vitek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/vitek) $45.00 $0.22 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-battle-scarred) [IWAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/IWAN) $45.00 $54.11 1.20x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-well-worn) [Zayroxx](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Zayroxx) $45.00 $0.11 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:18 UTC

[Tec-9 | Flash Out (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-field-tested) Hidden $45.00 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Snake Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-snake-camo-well-worn) Hidden $45.00 $0.11 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[MP9 | Broken Record (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-broken-record-well-worn) Hidden $45.00 $0.20 0.00x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[AUG | Bengal Tiger (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-bengal-tiger-factory-new) [kick.com/RadmeR77](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kick.com%2FRadmeR77) $45.00 $105 2.34x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-necro-jr-battle-scarred) [Ajek](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Ajek) $45.00 $0.22 0.00x 2026-11-11 16:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:50 UTC | $45.00 | 88.85% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Covert 0.1% classified 6.1% covert 11.4% covert knife 1.7% red 5.1% pink 3.2% extraordinary 1.4% restricted 0.7% blue 6.3% violet 4.2% mil spec 4.1% #4b69ff 16.4% milspec 9.3% blueLight 11.3% #87c7ff 18.7% best hit $3,568 (79.28x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.85 on average: an expected loss of $11.15 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt