---
title: "KO Verdict case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "KO Verdict ($8.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.07% from 32 items with odds, observed 92.29% over 3,937 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635615
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [KO Verdict](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635615)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · KO Verdict

A case on G4Skins, first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635615?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635615?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635615) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635615?window=all)

Price · $8.00

Advertised RTP · 89.07% · EV $7.13 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.29% · 3,937 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.10% ±15.08 1,489 openings

7 days · 92.29% ±9.27 3,937 openings

30 days · 92.29% ±9.27 3,937 openings

since tracking started · 92.29% ±9.27 3,937 openings

76.5% 92.3% 108.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635615?window=24h) | 1,489 | 92.10% ±15.1 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635615?window=7d) | 3,937 | 92.29% ±9.27 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635615) | 3,937 | 92.29% ±9.27 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635615?window=all) | 3,937 | 92.29% ±9.27 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,942 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 3,704 | $813 | 3.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 2,381 | $515 | 3.0% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $240 | 3.0% | 1 | 3.5 | 0.28× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 775 | $168 | 3.0% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 746 | $162 | 3.0% | 11 | 5.3 | 2.08× |
| [FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-roll-cage-well-worn) | 1 in 613 | $133 | 3.0% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.78× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-minimal-wear) | 1 in 578 | $126 | 3.0% | 12 | 6.8 | 1.76× |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 543 | $118 | 3.0% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Phase 4) weapon · red · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-phase-4) | 1 in 397 | $85.88 | 3.0% | 11 | 9.9 | 1.11× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $78.04 | 4.4% | 18 | 15.8 | 1.14× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-battle-scarred) | 1 in 124 | $38.70 | 4.4% | 30 | 31.8 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $26.75 | 4.4% | 39 | 46.0 | 0.85× |
| [Desert Eagle \| The Bronze (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-bronze-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $26.35 | 4.4% | 41 | 46.8 | 0.88× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $24.59 | 4.4% | 61 | 50.1 | 1.22× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $24.18 | 4.4% | 46 | 50.9 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Falak (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-falak-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $20.31 | 4.4% | 67 | 60.7 | 1.10× |
| [Sergeant Bombson \| SWAT agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sergeant-bombson-swat) | 1 in 52 | $16.33 | 4.4% | 74 | 75.4 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $15.34 | 3.5% | 66 | 64.6 | 1.02× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $14.69 | 3.5% | 64 | 67.4 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $9.66 | 3.5% | 93 | 102.5 | 0.91× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blast From the Past (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blast-from-the-past-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $9.03 | 3.5% | 114 | 109.7 | 1.04× |
| [Nova \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $9.03 | 3.5% | 106 | 109.7 | 0.97× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $8.60 | 3.5% | 121 | 115.1 | 1.05× |
| [MP5-SD \| Autumn Twilly (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-autumn-twilly-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $8.23 | 3.5% | 124 | 120.3 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $8.19 | 3.5% | 132 | 120.9 | 1.09× |
| [G3SG1 \| High Seas (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $1.08 | 1.3% | 322 | 343.1 | 0.94× |
| [MP9 \| Spy Prototype (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-spy-prototype-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $1.03 | 1.3% | 354 | 359.7 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Bullfrog (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bullfrog-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $0.96 | 1.3% | 396 | 386.0 | 1.03× |
| [Galil AR \| Tuxedo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-tuxedo-field-tested) | 1 in 10 | $0.96 | 1.3% | 397 | 386.0 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10 | $0.95 | 1.3% | 387 | 390.1 | 0.99× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-factory-new) | 10.3% | $0.91 | 1.3% | 383 | 407.2 | 0.94× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-factory-new) | 11.0% | $0.90 | 1.4% | 452 | 435.0 | 1.04× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635615`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) Hidden $8.00 $813 101.7x 2026-11-10 20:36 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $8.00 $515 64.40x 2026-11-10 13:06 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $8.00 $515 64.40x 2026-11-09 12:38 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635615)

[G3SG1 | High Seas (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.00 $1.08 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:46 UTC

[Nova | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rust-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.00 $9.03 1.13x 2026-11-11 19:46 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-field-tested) Hidden $8.00 $8.60 1.08x 2026-11-11 19:46 UTC

[P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-bullfrog-factory-new) [Zielu rozdziewiczacz](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Zielu%20rozdziewiczacz) $8.00 $0.96 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:46 UTC

[G3SG1 | High Seas (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-high-seas-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.00 $1.08 0.14x 2026-11-11 19:46 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.00 $24.59 3.07x 2026-11-11 19:46 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-battle-scarred) Hidden $8.00 $0.95 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:46 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-factory-new) [Zielu rozdziewiczacz](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Zielu%20rozdziewiczacz) $8.00 $0.90 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:46 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-factory-new) Hidden $8.00 $0.90 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:45 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-distressed-factory-new) Hidden $8.00 $0.90 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:20 UTC | $8.00 | 89.07% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.6% red 0.5% classified 4.3% rare 0.2% restricted 14.9% extraordinary 0.8% light blue 1.2% pink 1.5% violet 1.9% mil spec 12.4% milspec 21.8% industrial 5.8% #8847ff 2.9% blue 9.8% #4b69ff 21.4% best hit $813 (101.7x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.07 on average: an expected loss of $10.93 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt