---
title: "Golden Fury case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Golden Fury ($24.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.06% from 36 items with odds, observed 97.95% over 1,452 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635616
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Golden Fury](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635616)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Golden Fury

A case on G4Skins, first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635616?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635616?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635616) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635616?window=all)

Price · $24.00

Advertised RTP · 89.06% · EV $21.37 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 97.95% · 1,452 openings, odds method

Variance · 10.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 105.73% ±28.35 500 openings

7 days · 97.95% ±16.64 1,452 openings

30 days · 97.95% ±16.64 1,452 openings

since tracking started · 97.95% ±16.64 1,452 openings

76.5% 105.5% 134.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635616?window=24h) | 500 | 105.73% ±28.3 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635616?window=7d) | 1,452 | 97.95% ±16.6 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635616) | 1,452 | 97.95% ±16.6 | +1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635616?window=all) | 1,452 | 97.95% ±16.6 | +1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,452 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 3,030 | $2,068 | 3.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) | 1 in 1,724 | $1,163 | 3.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,266 | $854 | 3.2% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.62× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · #ffd700 · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,163 | $784 | 3.2% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-autoexec-factory-new) | 1 in 1,136 | $768 | 3.2% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.35× |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 1,124 | $764 | 3.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 935 | $632 | 3.2% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-field-tested-2) | 1 in 862 | $582 | 3.2% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.19× |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 402 | $273 | 3.2% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 249 | $224 | 4.2% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-field-tested) | 1 in 232 | $209 | 4.2% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.96× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 189 | $171 | 4.2% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 138 | $124 | 4.2% | 11 | 10.5 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) weapon · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 130 | $117 | 4.2% | 9 | 11.2 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $78.75 | 4.2% | 13 | 16.6 | 0.78× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $56.10 | 4.2% | 26 | 23.3 | 1.12× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $53.55 | 4.2% | 28 | 24.4 | 1.15× |
| [P2000 \| Scorpion (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-scorpion-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $45.41 | 3.3% | 20 | 22.8 | 0.88× |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $40.84 | 3.3% | 15 | 25.4 | 0.59× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $39.85 | 3.3% | 13 | 26.0 | 0.50× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $35.44 | 3.3% | 19 | 29.3 | 0.65× |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $31.10 | 3.3% | 31 | 33.4 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $29.93 | 3.3% | 38 | 34.7 | 1.10× |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $25.41 | 3.3% | 39 | 40.8 | 0.96× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $22.78 | 1.5% | 19 | 20.2 | 0.94× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $14.23 | 1.5% | 32 | 32.3 | 0.99× |
| [AWP \| The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $12.78 | 1.5% | 39 | 36.0 | 1.08× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $10.53 | 1.5% | 49 | 43.7 | 1.12× |
| [Markus Delrow \| FBI HRT agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/markus-delrow-fbi-hrt) | 1 in 29 | $9.15 | 1.5% | 46 | 50.3 | 0.92× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $9.05 | 1.5% | 53 | 50.8 | 1.04× |
| [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $6.60 | 0.9% | 42 | 43.3 | 0.97× |
| [Nova \| Interlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-interlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $5.98 | 0.9% | 50 | 47.8 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $5.79 | 0.9% | 50 | 49.3 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $2.33 | 0.9% | 109 | 122.6 | 0.89× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Dark Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-factory-new) | 21.1% | $0.93 | 0.9% | 323 | 307.1 | 1.05× |
| [SG 553 \| Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-battle-scarred) | 21.9% | $0.90 | 0.9% | 341 | 317.6 | 1.07× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635616`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-factory-new) [baskaysys](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/baskaysys) $24.00 $2,068 86.19x 2026-11-09 16:10 UTC

[M4A4 | The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) Hidden $24.00 $1,163 48.47x 2026-11-11 14:34 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) [ZaMocnoSkuty](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ZaMocnoSkuty) $24.00 $854 35.59x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.00 $854 35.59x 2026-11-10 18:02 UTC

[M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) [♤☆xLarvidedx☆♤](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%99%A4%E2%98%86xLarvidedx%E2%98%86%E2%99%A4) $24.00 $854 35.59x 2026-11-09 21:44 UTC

[AK-47 | AUTOEXEC (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-autoexec-factory-new) [✪Spid ❤M](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%9C%AASpid%20%E2%9D%A4M) $24.00 $768 31.98x 2026-11-11 16:34 UTC

[AK-47 | AUTOEXEC (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-autoexec-factory-new) [ZaMocnoSkuty](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ZaMocnoSkuty) $24.00 $768 31.98x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[AK-47 | AUTOEXEC (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-autoexec-factory-new) Hidden $24.00 $768 31.98x 2026-11-11 04:45 UTC

[M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) Hidden $24.00 $764 31.84x 2026-11-10 22:43 UTC

[M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) Hidden $24.00 $764 31.84x 2026-11-10 18:44 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635616)

[Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-factory-new) Hidden $24.00 $0.93 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $24.00 $0.90 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[SG 553 | Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-field-tested) Hidden $24.00 $2.33 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-battle-scarred) [kick.com/RadmeR77](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kick.com%2FRadmeR77) $24.00 $0.90 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $24.00 $0.90 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hot Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.00 $9.05 0.38x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[SG 553 | Berry Gel Coat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-berry-gel-coat-battle-scarred) Hidden $24.00 $0.90 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-dark-polymer-factory-new) [kick.com/RadmeR77](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/kick.com%2FRadmeR77) $24.00 $0.93 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $24.00 $31.10 1.30x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-factory-new) Hidden $24.00 $35.44 1.48x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:20 UTC | $24.00 | 89.06% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.5% classified 7.8% #ffd700 0.1% Ancient 0.5% restricted 8.9% extraordinary 1.7% rare 2.8% pink 5.9% #d32ee6 3.0% violet 6.4% industrial 3.5% mil spec 3.3% light blue 8.4% milspec 21.1% #4b69ff 21.9% best hit $2,068 (86.19x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.06 on average: an expected loss of $10.94 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt