---
title: "Lumberjack case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Lumberjack ($6.50) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.84% from 34 items with odds, observed 98.52% over 4,984 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635630
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Lumberjack](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635630)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Lumberjack

A case on G4Skins, first seen 9 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635630?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635630?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635630) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635630?window=all)

Price · $6.50

Advertised RTP · 88.84% · EV $5.77 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.52% · 4,984 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 100.69% ±15.91 1,691 openings

7 days · 98.52% ±9.27 4,984 openings

30 days · 98.52% ±9.27 4,984 openings

since tracking started · 98.52% ±9.27 4,984 openings

84.0% 100.5% 117.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 88.84% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (89.25% – 107.79%, 4,984 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635630?window=24h) | 1,691 | 100.69% ±15.9 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635630?window=7d) | 4,984 | 98.52% ±9.27 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635630) | 4,984 | 98.52% ±9.27 | +2.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/1635630?window=all) | 4,984 | 98.52% ±9.27 | +2.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,414 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,448 | $714 | 3.6% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-consequence-of-the-jinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,429 | $302 | 3.7% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.06× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $191 | 3.6% | 7 | 6.0 | 1.18× |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 781 | $164 | 3.6% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 714 | $150 | 3.6% | 5 | 7.6 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 676 | $142 | 3.6% | 12 | 8.0 | 1.50× |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 621 | $131 | 3.6% | 9 | 8.7 | 1.03× |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 606 | $127 | 3.6% | 9 | 8.9 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Apep's Curse (Factory New) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-apeps-curse-factory-new) | 1 in 515 | $108 | 3.6% | 8 | 10.5 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 297 | $63.74 | 3.7% | 19 | 18.2 | 1.04× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 256 | $55.09 | 3.7% | 17 | 21.1 | 0.81× |
| [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-well-worn) | 1 in 232 | $49.90 | 3.7% | 28 | 23.3 | 1.20× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-battle-scarred) | 1 in 178 | $38.22 | 3.7% | 29 | 30.4 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ifrit-lattice-factory-new) | 1 in 93 | $19.91 | 3.7% | 51 | 58.5 | 0.87× |
| [Officer Jacques Beltram \| Gendarmerie Nationale agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/officer-jacques-beltram-gendarmerie-nationale) | 1 in 84 | $17.96 | 3.7% | 74 | 64.8 | 1.14× |
| [Tec-9 \| Hades (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $17.39 | 3.7% | 69 | 66.9 | 1.03× |
| [G3SG1 \| Arctic Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 81 | $17.38 | 3.7% | 70 | 67.0 | 1.05× |
| [Nova \| Bloomstick (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-bloomstick-well-worn) | 1 in 64 | $13.80 | 3.7% | 102 | 84.4 | 1.21× |
| [XM1014 \| Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-banana-leaf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $13.60 | 3.7% | 82 | 85.5 | 0.96× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $12.65 | 3.2% | 92 | 78.0 | 1.18× |
| [MAC-10 \| Aloha (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-well-worn) | 1 in 65 | $11.89 | 3.2% | 81 | 82.9 | 0.98× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58 | $10.61 | 3.2% | 91 | 93.0 | 0.98× |
| [MAC-10 \| Derailment (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-derailment-factory-new) | 1 in 57 | $10.30 | 3.2% | 88 | 95.7 | 0.92× |
| [UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-metal-flowers-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $6.79 | 3.2% | 150 | 145.2 | 1.03× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $6.63 | 3.2% | 155 | 148.7 | 1.04× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $6.53 | 3.2% | 147 | 151.0 | 0.97× |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $6.51 | 3.2% | 166 | 151.5 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $1.09 | 0.7% | 199 | 197.3 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-capillary-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.85 | 0.7% | 247 | 252.9 | 0.98× |
| [XM1014 \| Halftone Shift (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-halftone-shift-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.83 | 0.7% | 258 | 259.1 | 1.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Zander (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-zander-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.54 | 0.7% | 387 | 398.1 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Arabesque Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-arabesque-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.48 | 0.7% | 420 | 448.0 | 0.94× |
| [SG 553 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-minimal-wear) | 16.5% | $0.24 | 0.7% | 916 | 895.9 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Death Rattle (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-field-tested) | 26.5% | $0.15 | 0.7% | 1,410 | 1434.6 | 0.98× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/1635630`, 11 Nov, 18:05 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.50 $714 109.9x 2026-11-11 17:54 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [hadesso99](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/hadesso99) $6.50 $714 109.9x 2026-11-10 19:46 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.50 $714 109.9x 2026-11-10 19:39 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Santiago](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Santiago) $6.50 $714 109.9x 2026-11-10 13:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=1635630)

[MAC-10 | Arabesque Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-arabesque-mosaic-field-tested) [Z1koo skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Z1koo%20skins.army) $6.50 $0.48 0.07x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-minimal-wear) [sasha\_triceps\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/sasha_triceps_skins.army) $6.50 $6.51 1.00x 2026-11-11 20:22 UTC

[Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-field-tested) [𝕂𝕒𝕞𝕦𝕣 skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%95%82%F0%9D%95%92%F0%9D%95%9E%F0%9D%95%A6%F0%9D%95%A3%20skins.army) $6.50 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-field-tested) [Damianson](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Damianson) $6.50 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[SG 553 | Aloha (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-aloha-minimal-wear) [Cookie'S](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Cookie'S) $6.50 $0.24 0.04x 2026-11-11 20:18 UTC

[Glock-18 | Death Rattle (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-death-rattle-field-tested) [Jabari Tahir♛ -C13\_r|\_|ch4M-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Jabari%20Tahir%E2%99%9B%20-C13_r%7C_%7Cch4M-) $6.50 $0.15 0.02x 2026-11-11 20:15 UTC

[MAC-10 | Aloha (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-aloha-well-worn) [armane](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/armane) $6.50 $11.89 1.83x 2026-11-11 20:15 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.50 $6.51 1.00x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) [scyzoryk](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/scyzoryk) $6.50 $1.09 0.17x 2026-11-11 20:13 UTC

[Nova | Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.50 $6.51 1.00x 2026-11-11 20:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:44 UTC | $6.50 | 88.84% | 34 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 7.4% legendary 0.0% red 0.2% covert 0.7% Classified 0.2% classified 2.3% covert knife 0.4% Ancient 0.6% violet 5.9% industrial 30.6% #d32ce6 1.4% mil spec 1.5% pink 1.7% uncommon 4.6% #4b69ff 19.2% restricted 5.5% milspec 12.9% blue 4.8% best hit $714 (109.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.84 on average: an expected loss of $11.16 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt