---
title: "Garden party case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Garden party ($5.30) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.94% from 46 items with odds, observed 85.06% over 7,538 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/164
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:30Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Garden party](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/164)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Garden party

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/164?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/164?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/164) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/164?window=all)

Price · $5.30

Advertised RTP · 88.94% · EV $4.71 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.06% · 7,538 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 13 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.33% ±14.10 1,058 openings

7 days · 85.31% ±5.83 6,192 openings

30 days · 85.06% ±5.28 7,538 openings

since tracking started · 85.06% ±5.28 7,538 openings

69.5% 84.3% 99.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/164?window=24h) | 1,058 | 84.33% ±14.1 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/164?window=7d) | 6,192 | 85.31% ±5.83 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/164) | 7,538 | 85.06% ±5.28 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/164?window=all) | 7,538 | 85.06% ±5.28 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,556 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11,111 | $581 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $391 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 3,846 | $196 | 1.1% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.04× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $147 | 1.1% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.76× |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,703 | $139 | 1.1% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× |
| [MAG-7 \| Counter Terrace (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-counter-terrace-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,564 | $130 | 1.1% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× |
| [AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-chameleon-factory-new) | 1 in 2,041 | $105 | 1.1% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| [AK-47 \| Jaguar (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jaguar-well-worn) | 1 in 1,852 | $94.92 | 1.1% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.49× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 1,408 | $71.56 | 1.1% | 1 | 5.4 | 0.19× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,299 | $66.22 | 1.1% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,075 | $54.95 | 1.1% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.71× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 418 | $52.37 | 2.7% | 15 | 18.1 | 0.83× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 415 | $51.88 | 2.7% | 18 | 18.2 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 372 | $46.42 | 2.6% | 11 | 20.3 | 0.54× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 365 | $45.63 | 2.7% | 23 | 20.7 | 1.11× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 302 | $37.75 | 2.7% | 24 | 25.0 | 0.96× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 267 | $33.33 | 2.7% | 27 | 28.3 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $31.23 | 2.6% | 34 | 30.2 | 1.12× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-factory-new) | 1 in 213 | $26.58 | 2.7% | 33 | 35.5 | 0.93× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 211 | $26.35 | 2.6% | 40 | 35.8 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 190 | $23.82 | 2.7% | 48 | 39.7 | 1.21× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 182 | $22.78 | 2.7% | 43 | 41.5 | 1.04× |
| [P2000 \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 171 | $21.35 | 2.6% | 57 | 44.2 | 1.29× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $18.12 | 2.7% | 45 | 52.1 | 0.86× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) | 1 in 130 | $16.27 | 2.7% | 67 | 58.0 | 1.15× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 1 in 121 | $15.15 | 2.7% | 62 | 62.3 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $12.19 | 2.7% | 75 | 77.4 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shapewood-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $10.53 | 4.8% | 171 | 161.5 | 1.06× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $9.15 | 4.8% | 170 | 185.8 | 0.91× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $7.80 | 4.8% | 217 | 218.0 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-limelight-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $7.58 | 4.8% | 209 | 224.3 | 0.93× |
| [AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $7.07 | 4.8% | 237 | 240.4 | 0.99× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $6.51 | 4.8% | 257 | 261.1 | 0.98× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $6.47 | 4.8% | 274 | 262.8 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $6.01 | 4.8% | 293 | 282.9 | 1.04× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $3.37 | 0.9% | 82 | 96.1 | 0.85× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $2.17 | 0.9% | 138 | 149.2 | 0.92× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $1.75 | 0.9% | 187 | 185.0 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $1.58 | 0.9% | 205 | 204.9 | 1.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $1.56 | 0.9% | 219 | 207.6 | 1.06× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $0.80 | 0.9% | 398 | 404.8 | 0.98× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.56 | 0.9% | 583 | 578.3 | 1.01× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-field-tested) | 1 in 35 | $0.44 | 0.3% | 210 | 219.0 | 0.96× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-jungle-slipstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $0.42 | 0.3% | 222 | 229.4 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| VariCamo (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-varicamo-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.29 | 0.3% | 370 | 332.2 | 1.11× |
| [FAMAS \| Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) | 32.7% | $0.04 | 0.3% | 2,465 | 2467.2 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/164`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=164)

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $5.30 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC

[AK-47 | Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jungle-spray-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.30 $18.12 3.42x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $5.30 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) [Zazu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Zazu) $5.30 $3.37 0.64x 2026-11-11 17:30 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.30 $3.37 0.64x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $5.30 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC

[UMP-45 | Plastique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-field-tested) [SPENISON](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/SPENISON) $5.30 $0.56 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:29 UTC

[UMP-45 | Plastique (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-field-tested) Hidden $5.30 $0.56 0.11x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) Hidden $5.30 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

[FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-colony-field-tested) [DasXBoot Zwei](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/DasXBoot%20Zwei) $5.30 $0.04 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:28 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $5.30 | 88.94% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #8847ff 5.7% extraordinary 0.0% classified 4.1% covert 0.4% #4b69ff 6.7% #ffd700 0.2% restricted 29.0% Rare 4.7% mil spec 3.9% #d32ce6 0.5% industrial 4.9% violet 2.5% pink 3.5% milspec 1.3% consumer 32.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.94 on average: an expected loss of $11.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt