---
title: "One moment case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "One moment ($1.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.92% from 43 items with odds, observed 89.26% over 53.8K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/165
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:07Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [One moment](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/165)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · One moment

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/165?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/165?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/165) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/165?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 88.92% · EV $0.89 from 43 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.26% · 53.8K openings, odds method

Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 82.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.11% ±4.81 7,131 openings

7 days · 89.46% ±1.93 44.2K openings

30 days · 89.26% ±1.75 53.8K openings

since tracking started · 89.26% ±1.75 53.8K openings

86.5% 92.0% 97.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/165?window=24h) | 7,131 | 92.11% ±4.81 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/165?window=7d) | 44.2K | 89.46% ±1.93 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/165) | 53.8K | 89.26% ±1.75 | +0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/165?window=all) | 53.8K | 89.26% ±1.75 | +0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 43 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 33,333 | $147 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.24× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $140 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) | 1 in 33,333 | $138 | 0.5% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $64.32 | 0.5% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $49.01 | 0.5% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.83× |
| [Glock-18 \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-night-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $40.34 | 0.5% | 9 | 5.4 | 1.67× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-field-tested) | 1 in 7,692 | $33.64 | 0.5% | 4 | 7.0 | 0.57× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-wasteland-princess-battle-scarred) | 1 in 7,692 | $31.36 | 0.5% | 10 | 7.0 | 1.43× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $21.00 | 0.5% | 9 | 10.8 | 0.84× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,571 | $15.27 | 0.5% | 14 | 15.1 | 0.93× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-field-tested) | 1 in 2,941 | $12.53 | 0.5% | 13 | 18.3 | 0.71× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-well-worn) | 1 in 2,941 | $12.38 | 0.5% | 13 | 18.3 | 0.71× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $12.00 | 0.5% | 15 | 18.8 | 0.80× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 2,564 | $10.87 | 0.5% | 27 | 21.0 | 1.29× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,299 | $9.92 | 0.9% | 36 | 41.5 | 0.87× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-factory-new) | 1 in 1,220 | $9.37 | 0.9% | 39 | 44.1 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,163 | $8.90 | 0.9% | 41 | 46.3 | 0.89× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-well-worn) | 1 in 1,163 | $8.88 | 0.9% | 53 | 46.3 | 1.14× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-well-worn) | 1 in 1,099 | $8.38 | 0.9% | 54 | 49.0 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,087 | $8.31 | 0.9% | 55 | 49.5 | 1.11× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-factory-new) | 1 in 1,087 | $8.29 | 0.9% | 64 | 49.5 | 1.29× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) | 1 in 980 | $7.51 | 0.9% | 56 | 54.9 | 1.02× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-field-tested) | 1 in 952 | $7.26 | 0.9% | 66 | 56.5 | 1.17× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) | 1 in 877 | $6.74 | 0.9% | 56 | 61.4 | 0.91× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-well-worn) | 1 in 862 | $6.62 | 0.9% | 59 | 62.4 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 787 | $6.02 | 0.9% | 62 | 68.4 | 0.91× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 719 | $5.51 | 0.9% | 75 | 74.8 | 1.00× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-factory-new) | 1 in 719 | $5.51 | 0.9% | 75 | 74.8 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-field-tested) | 1 in 704 | $5.39 | 0.9% | 73 | 76.4 | 0.95× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 515 | $3.95 | 0.9% | 105 | 104.4 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 498 | $3.81 | 0.9% | 102 | 108.2 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-minimal-wear) | 1 in 476 | $3.65 | 0.9% | 132 | 113.1 | 1.17× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-factory-new) | 1 in 476 | $3.65 | 0.9% | 114 | 113.1 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 461 | $3.53 | 0.9% | 94 | 116.8 | 0.80× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 446 | $3.42 | 0.9% | 144 | 120.6 | 1.19× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-well-worn) | 1 in 435 | $3.32 | 0.9% | 106 | 123.8 | 0.86× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 403 | $3.08 | 0.9% | 130 | 133.5 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $2.75 | 9.0% | 1,592 | 1566.1 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $2.72 | 9.0% | 1,563 | 1583.3 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $2.28 | 9.0% | 1,874 | 1889.1 | 0.99× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.80 | 9.0% | 2,435 | 2392.5 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) | 40.5% | $0.47 | 21.4% | 21,872 | 21821.9 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) | 42.1% | $0.34 | 16.1% | 22,582 | 22658.5 | 1.00× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/165`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) [✘Mefion✘シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%E2%9C%98Mefion%E2%9C%98%E3%82%B7) $1.00 $147 147.1x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) [Korsarz\_skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Korsarz_skins.army) $1.00 $147 147.1x 2026-11-11 00:46 UTC

[M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $140 139.9x 2026-11-07 23:53 UTC

[M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) Hidden $1.00 $138 138.5x 2026-11-06 21:01 UTC

[M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) [gruby skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/gruby%20skins.army) $1.00 $138 138.5x 2026-11-05 20:38 UTC

[M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-well-worn) [PinPad](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/PinPad) $1.00 $138 138.5x 2026-11-05 14:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $64.32 64.32x 2026-11-07 22:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $64.32 64.32x 2026-11-06 21:44 UTC

[AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) [UKI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/UKI) $1.00 $64.32 64.32x 2026-11-04 09:38 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=165)

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.00 $0.34 0.34x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.00 $0.34 0.34x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.00 $0.34 0.34x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) [ZeGaRR skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/ZeGaRR%20skins.army) $1.00 $0.34 0.34x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.47 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.00 $0.34 0.34x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) [𝑮𝙾ㄥ𝐀🅩𝘖](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%91%AE%F0%9D%99%BE%E3%84%A5%F0%9D%90%80%F0%9F%85%A9%F0%9D%98%96) $1.00 $0.47 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) Hidden $1.00 $0.47 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.00 $0.34 0.34x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

[Glock-18 | Sacrifice (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-field-tested) [𝑮𝙾ㄥ𝐀🅩𝘖](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%F0%9D%91%AE%F0%9D%99%BE%E3%84%A5%F0%9D%90%80%F0%9F%85%A9%F0%9D%98%96) $1.00 $0.47 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $1.00 | 88.92% | 43 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% industrial 0.1% restricted 9.2% classified 0.6% Mythical 3.3% mil spec 82.7% #d32ee6 0.0% violet 0.0% #8847ff 0.3% Uncommon 0.1% Rare 3.5% best hit $147 (147.1x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.92 on average: an expected loss of $11.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt