--- title: "Melody case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Melody ($15.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.87% from 39 items with odds, observed 79.79% over 1,980 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/167 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Melody](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/167) # [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Melody A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/167?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/167?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/167) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/167?window=all) Price · $15.00 Advertised RTP · 88.87% · EV $13.33 from 39 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.79% · 1,980 openings, odds method Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 92.78% ±19.41 379 openings 7 days · 81.60% ±9.05 1,743 openings 30 days · 79.79% ±8.49 1,980 openings since tracking started · 79.79% ±8.49 1,980 openings 70.5% 91.8% 113.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 88.87% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (71.30% – 88.28%, 1,980 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/167?window=24h) | 379 | 92.78% ±19.4 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/167?window=7d) | 1,743 | 81.60% ±9.05 | −1.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/167) | 1,980 | 79.79% ±8.49 | −2.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/167?window=all) | 1,980 | 79.79% ±8.49 | −2.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,985 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 862 | $288 | 2.5% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 629 | $209 | 2.5% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 510 | $170 | 2.5% | 1 | 3.9 | 0.26× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 481 | $160 | 2.5% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 465 | $155 | 2.5% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.17× | | [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 450 | $150 | 2.5% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 671 | $147 | 1.6% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.34× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-well-worn) | 1 in 641 | $141 | 1.7% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.61× | | [FAMAS \| Sundown (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-factory-new) | 1 in 599 | $131 | 1.6% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-factory-new) | 1 in 571 | $126 | 1.7% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.58× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 521 | $115 | 1.7% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.31× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 515 | $113 | 1.6% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.78× | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 495 | $109 | 1.6% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.25× | | [MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-factory-new) | 1 in 488 | $107 | 1.6% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.23× | | [Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-pilot-field-tested) | 1 in 485 | $107 | 1.6% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 478 | $105 | 1.6% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.45× | | [Glock-18 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 459 | $101 | 1.6% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.62× | | [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 431 | $94.83 | 1.7% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× | | [AWP \| Snake Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-snake-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 420 | $92.21 | 1.6% | 3 | 4.7 | 0.64× | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 410 | $89.97 | 1.6% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× | | [MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-copper-borre-field-tested) | 1 in 407 | $89.36 | 1.6% | 1 | 4.9 | 0.20× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) | 1 in 368 | $80.82 | 1.6% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.56× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-factory-new) | 1 in 338 | $74.13 | 1.6% | 5 | 5.9 | 0.85× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 310 | $67.96 | 1.6% | 5 | 6.4 | 0.78× | | [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 293 | $64.34 | 1.6% | 11 | 6.8 | 1.63× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 267 | $58.74 | 1.6% | 5 | 7.4 | 0.67× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 249 | $54.76 | 1.6% | 10 | 8.0 | 1.26× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-field-tested) | 1 in 228 | $50.06 | 1.6% | 7 | 8.7 | 0.80× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $43.87 | 1.6% | 8 | 9.9 | 0.80× | | [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 177 | $38.92 | 1.6% | 8 | 11.2 | 0.71× | | [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 175 | $38.32 | 1.6% | 12 | 11.4 | 1.06× | | [G3SG1 \| Flux (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-factory-new) | 1 in 163 | $35.74 | 1.6% | 13 | 12.2 | 1.06× | | [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 158 | $34.72 | 1.6% | 12 | 12.6 | 0.96× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $34.36 | 1.6% | 9 | 12.7 | 0.71× | | [M4A4 \| Zirka (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $29.80 | 9.3% | 81 | 82.3 | 0.98× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $27.56 | 9.3% | 75 | 88.9 | 0.84× | | [P250 \| Epicenter (Factory New) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $22.30 | 9.3% | 101 | 109.9 | 0.92× | | [M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $19.27 | 9.3% | 127 | 127.2 | 1.00× | | [G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-field-tested) | 69.3% | $0.35 | 1.8% | 1,423 | 1375.8 | 1.03× | Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/167`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=167) [G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-field-tested) Hidden $15.00 $0.35 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.00 $38.32 2.55x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-field-tested) [Kasb3rg](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Kasb3rg) $15.00 $0.35 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC [G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-field-tested) Hidden $15.00 $0.35 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-field-tested) [Steapy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Steapy) $15.00 $0.35 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-field-tested) Hidden $15.00 $0.35 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [M4A4 | Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) [Steapy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Steapy) $15.00 $19.27 1.28x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-field-tested) Hidden $15.00 $0.35 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [M4A4 | Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) [Steapy](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Steapy) $15.00 $19.27 1.28x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [G3SG1 | Orange Crash (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-field-tested) Hidden $15.00 $0.35 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $15.00 | 88.87% | 39 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.9% #ffd700 0.9% restricted 10.7% red 0.1% #4b69ff 69.5% Mythical 0.4% classified 4.0% mil spec 0.9% extraordinary 0.7% #d32ce6 5.5% violet 6.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.87 on average: an expected loss of $11.13 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt