---
title: "Aloha case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Aloha ($18.20) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.66% from 20 items with odds, observed 79.68% over 875 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/177
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Aloha](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/177)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Aloha

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/177?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/177?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/177) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/177?window=all)

Price · $18.20

Advertised RTP · 86.66% · EV $15.77 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 79.68% · 875 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.54% ±22.64 175 openings

7 days · 76.59% ±11.05 708 openings

30 days · 79.68% ±9.93 875 openings

since tracking started · 79.68% ±9.93 875 openings

65.0% 91.5% 118.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/177?window=24h) | 175 | 94.54% ±22.6 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/177?window=7d) | 708 | 76.59% ±11.1 | −1.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/177) | 875 | 79.68% ±9.93 | −1.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/177?window=all) | 875 | 79.68% ±9.93 | −1.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 875 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $104 | 32.8% | 41 | 43.7 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $89.21 | 28.3% | 35 | 43.7 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $21.20 | 6.7% | 41 | 43.7 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $17.36 | 5.5% | 42 | 43.7 | 0.96× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $12.55 | 4.0% | 52 | 43.7 | 1.19× |
| ['Blueberries' Buckshot \| NSWC SEAL agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/blueberries-buckshot-nswc-seal) | 1 in 20 | $12.07 | 3.8% | 36 | 43.7 | 0.82× |
| [MAG-7 \| Silver (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $11.24 | 3.6% | 46 | 43.7 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.98 | 2.5% | 41 | 43.7 | 0.94× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $7.66 | 2.4% | 47 | 43.7 | 1.07× |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $7.04 | 2.2% | 62 | 43.7 | 1.42× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $6.99 | 2.2% | 31 | 43.7 | 0.71× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $5.04 | 1.6% | 50 | 43.7 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $3.89 | 1.2% | 40 | 43.7 | 0.91× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $2.34 | 0.7% | 47 | 43.7 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-paw-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $2.17 | 0.7% | 35 | 43.7 | 0.80× |
| [AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-aristocrat-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $1.58 | 0.5% | 52 | 43.7 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.95 | 0.3% | 48 | 43.7 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.92 | 0.3% | 43 | 43.7 | 0.98× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.92 | 0.3% | 49 | 43.7 | 1.12× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.83 | 0.3% | 37 | 43.7 | 0.85× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/177`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=177)

[M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) Hidden $18.20 $7.98 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) [JOHN CENA skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/JOHN%20CENA%20skins.army) $18.20 $5.04 0.28x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.20 $2.34 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[MAG-7 | Silver (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-silver-factory-new) Hidden $18.20 $11.24 0.62x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) [Tunc Wur](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Tunc%20Wur) $18.20 $104 5.69x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $18.20 $104 5.69x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Twin Turbo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.20 $2.34 0.13x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) [Tunc Wur](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Tunc%20Wur) $18.20 $7.04 0.39x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) Hidden $18.20 $104 5.69x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-field-tested) [KICK/YT: Prz3mqu](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KICK%2FYT%3A%20Prz3mqu) $18.20 $0.83 0.05x 2026-11-11 09:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 05:19 UTC | $18.20 | 86.66% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $20.00 | 86.72% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 10.0% restricted 20.0% classified 15.0% violet 5.0% #87c7ff 5.0% #8847ff 10.0% pink 5.0% Legendary 5.0% Classified 5.0% Mythical 10.0% mil spec 5.0% #4b69ff 5.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.66 on average: an expected loss of $13.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt