---
title: "50 shades case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "50 shades ($63.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.31% from 50 items with odds, observed 90.91% over 172 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/178
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [50 shades](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/178)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · 50 shades

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/178?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/178?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/178) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/178?window=all)

Price · $63.00

Advertised RTP · 86.31% · EV $54.38 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.91% · 172 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 78.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 27 openings · below min

7 days · 92.26% ±21.17 152 openings

30 days · 90.91% ±19.91 172 openings

since tracking started · 90.91% ±19.91 172 openings

65.0% 116.0% 167.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/178?window=24h) | 27 | 115.98% ±50.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/178?window=7d) | 152 | 92.26% ±21.2 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/178) | 172 | 90.91% ±19.9 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/178?window=all) | 172 | 90.91% ±19.9 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 172 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $399 | 14.7% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $310 | 11.4% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× |
| [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $299 | 11.0% | 7 | 3.4 | 2.03× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $150 | 5.5% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $147 | 5.4% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.45× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $146 | 5.4% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $141 | 5.2% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $139 | 5.1% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× |
| [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $117 | 4.3% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $106 | 3.9% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $84.84 | 3.1% | 8 | 3.4 | 2.33× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $54.26 | 2.0% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $53.37 | 2.0% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $48.11 | 1.8% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $42.16 | 1.6% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $34.84 | 1.3% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $34.63 | 1.3% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $30.15 | 1.1% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $29.58 | 1.1% | 8 | 3.4 | 2.33× |
| [AUG \| Sand Storm (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sand-storm-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $23.28 | 0.9% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $20.38 | 0.7% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.45× |
| [M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $19.43 | 0.7% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $18.93 | 0.7% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $18.22 | 0.7% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $18.12 | 0.7% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $15.39 | 0.6% | 7 | 3.4 | 2.03× |
| ['Blueberries' Buckshot \| NSWC SEAL agent · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/blueberries-buckshot-nswc-seal) | 1 in 50 | $15.18 | 0.6% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $14.33 | 0.5% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $14.16 | 0.5% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $13.88 | 0.5% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $13.27 | 0.5% | 7 | 3.4 | 2.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $13.24 | 0.5% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $12.99 | 0.5% | 1 | 3.4 | 0.29× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $12.47 | 0.5% | 0 | 3.4 | 0.00× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $11.95 | 0.4% | 8 | 3.4 | 2.33× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $8.73 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $8.73 | 0.3% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $8.37 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $8.22 | 0.3% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $8.12 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-flux-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $8.04 | 0.3% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tread Plate (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $8.01 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $5.68 | 0.2% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $5.49 | 0.2% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.74× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $5.43 | 0.2% | 5 | 3.4 | 1.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $5.26 | 0.2% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $5.01 | 0.2% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.16× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $4.91 | 0.2% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $4.81 | 0.2% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.87× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $3.86 | 0.1% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.58× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/178`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=178)

[M4A4 | Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) Hidden $63.00 $19.43 0.31x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) Hidden $63.00 $13.88 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) Hidden $63.00 $13.27 0.21x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) [-easy-](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/-easy-) $63.00 $146 2.32x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) Hidden $63.00 $106 1.68x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) [Andrew](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Andrew) $63.00 $3.86 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $63.00 $399 6.33x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[MAC-10 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $63.00 $84.84 1.35x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tread-plate-minimal-wear) [Andrew](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Andrew) $63.00 $8.12 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

[AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) [mrouZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/mrouZ) $63.00 $147 2.33x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $63.00 | 86.31% | 50 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 12.0% mil spec 4.0% restricted 22.0% Mil Spec Grade 2.0% classified 22.0% Restricted 4.0% violet 8.0% blue 4.0% #d32ee6 4.0% pink 2.0% #8847ff 8.0% light blue 2.0% industrial 2.0% Legendary 2.0% Uncommon 2.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.31 on average: an expected loss of $13.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt