---
title: "Dicey case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Dicey ($74.90) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 86.67% from 40 items with odds, observed 84.78% over 291 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/179
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [Dicey](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/179)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · Dicey

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/179?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/179?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/179) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/179?window=all)

Price · $74.90

Advertised RTP · 86.67% · EV $64.92 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 84.78% · 291 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 67.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 30 openings · below min

7 days · 83.88% ±10.75 253 openings

30 days · 84.78% ±10.02 291 openings

since tracking started · 84.78% ±10.02 291 openings

48.5% 80.5% 112.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/179?window=24h) | 30 | 80.43% ±31.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/179?window=7d) | 253 | 83.88% ±10.7 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/179) | 291 | 84.78% ±10.0 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/179?window=all) | 291 | 84.78% ±10.0 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 291 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-snakebite-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $225 | 8.7% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $222 | 8.6% | 4 | 7.3 | 0.55× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $196 | 7.5% | 5 | 7.3 | 0.69× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $183 | 7.0% | 9 | 7.3 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-orion-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $176 | 6.8% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $145 | 5.6% | 9 | 7.3 | 1.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $134 | 5.2% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.51× |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $133 | 5.1% | 9 | 7.3 | 1.24× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $130 | 5.0% | 4 | 7.3 | 0.55× |
| [MP9 \| Dark Age (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $96.61 | 3.7% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.51× |
| [StatTrak™ P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $90.22 | 3.5% | 9 | 7.3 | 1.24× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $77.98 | 3.0% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $75.68 | 2.9% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $74.89 | 2.9% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $73.35 | 2.8% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× |
| [MP9 \| Dark Age (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $69.07 | 2.7% | 10 | 7.3 | 1.37× |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $66.91 | 2.6% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $57.41 | 2.2% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $52.14 | 2.0% | 5 | 7.3 | 0.69× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $34.46 | 1.3% | 12 | 7.3 | 1.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $33.59 | 1.3% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $31.42 | 1.2% | 10 | 7.3 | 1.37× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $25.50 | 1.0% | 3 | 7.3 | 0.41× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $24.67 | 1.0% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $24.66 | 0.9% | 9 | 7.3 | 1.24× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $24.64 | 0.9% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $23.47 | 0.9% | 3 | 7.3 | 0.41× |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $17.73 | 0.7% | 2 | 7.3 | 0.27× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $15.81 | 0.6% | 9 | 7.3 | 1.24× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $14.75 | 0.6% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× |
| [FAMAS \| Djinn (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $14.30 | 0.6% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $8.69 | 0.3% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $5.19 | 0.2% | 10 | 7.3 | 1.37× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $4.90 | 0.2% | 3 | 7.3 | 0.41× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $3.94 | 0.2% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $3.55 | 0.1% | 7 | 7.3 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $2.06 | 0.1% | 8 | 7.3 | 1.10× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $1.78 | 0.1% | 9 | 7.3 | 1.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $1.77 | 0.1% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $1.76 | 0.1% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.51× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/179`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=179)

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) Hidden $74.90 $2.06 0.03x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[M4A1-S | Control Panel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-battle-scarred) Hidden $74.90 $5.19 0.07x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) Hidden $74.90 $33.59 0.45x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) [MIOD MALINA](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/MIOD%20MALINA) $74.90 $183 2.44x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[FAMAS | Djinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-minimal-wear) Hidden $74.90 $15.81 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-safari-mesh-well-worn) [twitch.tv/kosior\_777](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/twitch.tv%2Fkosior_777) $74.90 $75.68 1.01x 2026-11-11 12:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) Hidden $74.90 $90.22 1.20x 2026-11-11 03:26 UTC

[M4A4 | The Emperor (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-well-worn) Hidden $74.90 $73.35 0.98x 2026-11-11 03:26 UTC

[M4A1-S | Control Panel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-battle-scarred) [KURI](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/KURI) $74.90 $5.19 0.07x 2026-11-11 03:26 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) Hidden $74.90 $1.76 0.02x 2026-11-11 01:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $74.90 | 86.67% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 2.5% covert 25.0% classified 20.0% #d32ee6 12.5% red 5.0% #4b69ff 5.0% #ffd700 2.5% pink 7.5% restricted 10.0% milspec 2.5% Rare 2.5% blue 2.5% mil spec 2.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.67 on average: an expected loss of $13.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt