---
title: "MP7 case on G4Skins: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "MP7 ($1.00) on G4Skins, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.93% from 54 items with odds, observed 89.21% over 66.1K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/18
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) / [MP7](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/18)

# [G4Skins](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/g4skins) · MP7

A case on G4Skins, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is G4Skins's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/18?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/18?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/18) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/18?window=all)

Price · $1.00

Advertised RTP · 88.93% · EV $0.89 from 54 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.21% · 66.1K openings, odds method

Variance · 8.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.62% ±6.06 8,369 openings

7 days · 88.20% ±2.37 54.6K openings

30 days · 89.21% ±2.15 66.1K openings

since tracking started · 89.21% ±2.15 66.1K openings

76.0% 84.0% 92.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/18?window=24h) | 8,369 | 82.62% ±6.06 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/18?window=7d) | 54.6K | 88.20% ±2.37 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/18) | 66.1K | 89.21% ±2.15 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/g4skins/18?window=all) | 66.1K | 89.21% ±2.15 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 54 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 66.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP7 \| Teal Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $103 | 0.6% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 5,556 | $83.14 | 1.7% | 9 | 11.9 | 0.76× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,030 | $45.79 | 1.7% | 20 | 21.8 | 0.92× |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 2,703 | $40.24 | 1.7% | 27 | 24.5 | 1.10× |
| [MP7 \| Orange Peel (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-orange-peel-factory-new) | 1 in 2,564 | $38.29 | 1.7% | 20 | 25.8 | 0.77× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-well-worn) | 1 in 2,326 | $34.66 | 1.7% | 37 | 28.5 | 1.30× |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 2,222 | $33.29 | 1.7% | 26 | 29.8 | 0.87× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,222 | $33.22 | 1.7% | 30 | 29.8 | 1.01× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,887 | $28.53 | 1.7% | 44 | 35.1 | 1.25× |
| [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,587 | $23.88 | 1.7% | 47 | 41.7 | 1.13× |
| [MP7 \| Olive Plaid (Factory New) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-olive-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 1,020 | $15.35 | 1.7% | 64 | 64.9 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Skulls (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $13.59 | 1.7% | 68 | 72.8 | 0.93× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 847 | $12.68 | 1.7% | 91 | 78.1 | 1.16× |
| [MP7 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-ocean-foam-factory-new) | 1 in 833 | $12.52 | 1.7% | 89 | 79.5 | 1.12× |
| [MP7 \| Groundwater (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-groundwater-battle-scarred) | 1 in 699 | $10.48 | 1.7% | 79 | 94.7 | 0.83× |
| [MP7 \| Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) | 1 in 654 | $9.82 | 1.7% | 95 | 101.3 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 571 | $8.57 | 1.7% | 112 | 115.9 | 0.97× |
| [MP7 \| Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 559 | $8.39 | 1.7% | 114 | 118.5 | 0.96× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 1 in 524 | $7.87 | 1.7% | 138 | 126.5 | 1.09× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 521 | $7.81 | 1.7% | 132 | 127.1 | 1.04× |
| [MP7 \| Scorched (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 424 | $6.35 | 1.7% | 169 | 156.3 | 1.08× |
| [MP7 \| Asterion (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-field-tested) | 1 in 373 | $5.60 | 1.7% | 189 | 177.4 | 1.07× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 366 | $5.49 | 1.7% | 168 | 180.8 | 0.93× |
| [MP7 \| Groundwater (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-groundwater-field-tested) | 1 in 321 | $4.81 | 1.7% | 221 | 206.6 | 1.07× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Neon Ply (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-neon-ply-well-worn) | 1 in 316 | $4.74 | 1.7% | 185 | 209.2 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-special-delivery-minimal-wear) | 1 in 279 | $4.18 | 1.7% | 226 | 237.7 | 0.95× |
| [MP7 \| Olive Plaid (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-olive-plaid-field-tested) | 1 in 271 | $4.06 | 1.7% | 245 | 244.3 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 235 | $3.53 | 1.7% | 300 | 281.4 | 1.07× |
| [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-field-tested) | 1 in 184 | $2.76 | 1.7% | 352 | 359.5 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-minimal-wear) | 1 in 183 | $2.74 | 1.7% | 342 | 362.2 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 175 | $2.62 | 1.7% | 394 | 379.4 | 1.04× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-factory-new) | 1 in 161 | $2.42 | 1.7% | 419 | 410.5 | 1.02× |
| [MP7 \| Impire (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-impire-field-tested) | 1 in 145 | $2.17 | 1.7% | 487 | 457.5 | 1.06× |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $1.85 | 5.6% | 1,808 | 1789.7 | 1.01× |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $1.52 | 5.6% | 2,147 | 2177.7 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Gunsmoke (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $1.50 | 5.6% | 2,222 | 2206.8 | 1.01× |
| [MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.44 | 5.6% | 2,275 | 2298.8 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Special Delivery (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-special-delivery-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $1.23 | 5.6% | 2,700 | 2691.5 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-powercore-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $1.00 | 1.8% | 1,037 | 1040.8 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $0.88 | 1.8% | 1,136 | 1182.5 | 0.96× |
| [MP7 \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $0.85 | 1.8% | 1,201 | 1224.2 | 0.98× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Mischief (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-mischief-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $0.68 | 1.8% | 1,575 | 1530.1 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Armor Core (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-armor-core-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.57 | 1.8% | 1,900 | 1825.4 | 1.04× |
| [MP7 \| Akoben (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-akoben-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $0.56 | 1.8% | 1,832 | 1857.9 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Armor Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.52 | 1.8% | 2,061 | 2000.9 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $0.45 | 0.6% | 703 | 720.4 | 0.98× |
| [MP7 \| Mischief (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-mischief-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $0.42 | 0.5% | 710 | 770.7 | 0.92× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $0.35 | 0.5% | 952 | 925.0 | 1.03× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Factory New) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $0.29 | 0.5% | 1,116 | 1116.3 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.10 | 0.5% | 3,189 | 3236.4 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Army Recon (Field-Tested) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-army-recon-field-tested) | 12.8% | $0.04 | 0.6% | 8,344 | 8448.5 | 0.99× |
| [MP7 \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 12.2% | $0.04 | 0.5% | 8,094 | 8091.0 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Army Recon (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-army-recon-minimal-wear) | 12.2% | $0.04 | 0.5% | 8,106 | 8091.0 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) | 12.2% | $0.04 | 0.5% | 8,161 | 8091.0 | 1.01× |

Values are G4Skins's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `g4skins:feed/cases/18`, 11 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[MP7 | Teal Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-factory-new) [RozkosznaPała. skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/RozkosznaPa%C5%82a.%20skins.army) $1.00 $103 103.2x 2026-11-08 18:14 UTC

[MP7 | Teal Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $103 103.2x 2026-11-07 21:43 UTC

[MP7 | Teal Blossom (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-teal-blossom-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $103 103.2x 2026-11-04 18:32 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) [Morty](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Morty) $1.00 $83.14 83.14x 2026-11-10 16:32 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) [joincik420](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/joincik420) $1.00 $83.14 83.14x 2026-11-06 22:15 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) [Cichy Bąk \*\*\*](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Cichy%20B%C4%85k%20***-76561198974768768) $1.00 $83.14 83.14x 2026-11-05 21:28 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) [CZAJA05](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/CZAJA05) $1.00 $83.14 83.14x 2026-11-05 12:51 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) [BATTLETRON](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/BATTLETRON) $1.00 $83.14 83.14x 2026-11-04 18:04 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $83.14 83.14x 2026-11-04 09:41 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $1.00 $83.14 83.14x 2026-11-03 18:26 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=g4skins&case=18)

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [TABAK](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/TABAK) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [karoliwanicki68](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/karoliwanicki68) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[MP7 | Army Recon (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-army-recon-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC

[MP7 | Motherboard (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-motherboard-field-tested) [karoliwanicki68](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/karoliwanicki68) $1.00 $0.10 0.10x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [szeligator1](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/szeligator1) $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[MP7 | Gunsmoke (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-battle-scarred) [cicho cicho „skins.army”](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/cicho%20cicho%20%E2%80%9Eskins.army%E2%80%9D) $1.00 $1.52 1.52x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP7 | Mischief (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp7-mischief-field-tested) [PSYCHO ⛟](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/PSYCHO%20%E2%9B%9F) $1.00 $0.68 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[MP7 | Gunsmoke (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-battle-scarred) [\[PRG\]DoLaR](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/%5BPRG%5DDoLaR) $1.00 $1.52 1.52x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[MP7 | Gunsmoke (Well-Worn) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-gunsmoke-well-worn) [Grabol](https://gambatracker.com/players/g4skins/Grabol) $1.00 $1.85 1.85x 2026-11-11 13:52 UTC

[MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.00 $0.04 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:40 UTC | $1.00 | 88.93% | 54 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed #4b69ff 13.1% covert 0.1% mil spec 6.2% industrial 0.6% #eb4b4b 0.1% #8847ff 1.4% blue 1.9% #777777 26.0% restricted 1.8% consumer 24.8% classified 0.4% #b0c3d9 0.4% #87c7ff 15.9% Mythical 5.6% Rare 1.8% best hit $103 (103.2x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.93 on average: an expected loss of $11.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt